Which Overreactions Are Legit? Why Execs, Scouts Are Out On Chargers, But High on Rams

There's no better time to overreact than after Week 1 of the NFL season. 

Week 1 brought plenty of surprises around the league, giving us plenty of material to judge and make grand statements. Are the Los Angeles Rams not as good as we thought? Will the New England Patriots take a step back? 

We asked people around the league which overreactions they think are a figment, and which ones are legitimate. There was an overwhelming consensus that one overreaction is just that, while another might have some truth behind it. 

Here's what we learned from our conversations around the league. 

Ralph Vacchiano: It’s hard to find two bigger flops in Week 1 than the teams that share a stadium in Los Angeles. Both embarrassingly lost their openers.

One will probably be fine. The other … maybe not so much.

"I won’t overreact to the Rams at all," one NFL scout told me. "They’re still loaded, so I can chalk that up to the weird circumstances of a game in Australia. But the Chargers … that’s a team that looks like it has problems."

"I really thought [Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel] would be the guy who would finally turn Justin Herbert into the star we all think he could be," another scout told me. "But maybe we’re just wrong about Herbert. Or about McDaniel. But they were a no-show on offense against what I don’t think is a very good Cardinals team."

The Chargers, considered by some to be a playoff contender, gained just 268 yards and turned the ball over twice in their 26-14 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in L.A. That included just 81 rushing yards, and Herbert was 17 of 27 for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

"How many years are we going to look at Herbert and yell about his potential, only to watch him be average or worse?" the first scout told me. "Maybe this is just who he is. And maybe this is who the Chargers are, too."

As for the Rams, they were equally bad offensively in a 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Australia, gaining just 290 yards. And now they’ll be without Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, for a month, too.

"The Rams will be fine," the second scout told me. "Honestly, I’d feel bad for the Giants (the Rams' next opponent). They’re going to be angry. Sean McVay is going to be determined to get this fix fast. That combination could be deadly."

Vacchiano: The 49ers may have made a statement with their convincing Week 1 win, but it apparently wasn’t much of a statement about the team they beat. In fact, it was hard to find anyone around the NFL who was worried about the Rams after they lost to San Francisco 27-7 in Melbourne, Australia last Wednesday night.

"Not at all," one NFL executive told me. "I didn’t necessarily believe in all that ‘Dream Team’ stuff, but they were one of the NFL’s best teams last season and they’re even better now. One game in Week 1 doesn’t change that.

"You’ll see. That’ll look like an anomaly in a few weeks. They’ll be fine."

"I don’t know what the right answer is on the travel, but arriving on a 15-hour flight the day before the game clearly was a mistake. They played like they were jet-lagged," an NFC assistant coach told me. "It’s not an excuse that they’ll use, but it might be a real one. That had to be a hard game to prepare for, so I wouldn’t read anything into it."

The Rams still have last year’s MVP in quarterback Matthew Stafford and weapons like receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. They still have a defense that’ll soon be anchored by the unretired Aaron Donald, and in a few weeks, Myles Garrett will be back too.

That’s why an NFL scout told me via text: "Ignore the opener. They’re still loaded. Chalk it up to [playing in] Australia. Besides, we all know strange things always happen in Week 1."

Eric D. Williams: It’s only one game.

That was the sentiment from league sources I spoke with about the Los Angeles Rams. The heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl at the start of the year, Sean McVay’s Rams stubbed their toe with a poor performance in Australia, a painful 27-7 setback to the team’s NFC West rivals, the San Francisco 49ers.

Despite the poor performance in Australia, league sources I spoke to expect the Rams to rebound with extra time to prepare for Week 2 home contest on Monday Night Football against the New York Giants.

"Yessir," a league exec responded when I asked if the Rams would perform better in Week 2.

"They underestimated the impact of travelling so far," another league source told me. "Bad game. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. There’s a lot of football left for them to sort things out."

Added another NFL talent evaluator: "Week 1 is a liar. Last year’s Super Bowl teams both lost at home in Week 1. The Patriots lost to the Raiders."

The NFL talent evaluator went on to say Week 1 is the hardest to prepare for because there’s no film of your upcoming opponent to break down and evaluate in preparation for the game.

"As a quarterback, I really felt uncomfortable in Week 1 games because you really have no idea how to study the opponent," the talent evaluator told me. "Everything is probably a Trojan horse. Teams show their hands of who they really want to be schematically after the first regular season game.

Speaking of quarterbacks, another longtime NFL scout I spoke with pointed to better play needed from reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford.

"Travel and neither side of the ball played to expectations," the scout told me. "And the QB was just a guy."