What's next for Saquon Barkley and the Giants?

Saquon Barkley has long insisted that he wants to be "a Giant for life." But now it feels like a life without the Giants for Barkley is only a matter of time.

Barkley’s long-term future with the team is very unclear after he and the Giants failed to reach an agreement on a long-term contract by the 4 p.m. ET deadline on Monday for franchise-tagged players to sign long-term deals. After nine months of sporadic talks, both sides moved closer in the final hours, according to a source, but the movement was "not nearly enough" to get it done.

That essentially forces Barkley to play the 2023 season on the $10.1 million franchise tag, unless he chooses to sit out the season. Though no one outside of Barkley’s camp seriously expects that to happen, he’s already said a season-long holdout is something he would consider.

Much more likely, according to a source, is that Barkley won’t report to training camp until sometime in late August or even early September, likely just in time to get in a few practices before the Giants’ opener against the Dallas Cowboys on Sept. 10. That could create a problematic distraction for a team hoping to build on the good vibes from its surprise playoff appearance last year.

[Read more: Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs do not sign franchise tags, not expected to report to camp] 

So how did it get this far with the Giants and one of their best players? And what does it all mean for this season and the future? Here’s a breakdown of a complicated situation that eventually may push Barkley out of New York.

Did they even come close to a long-term contract?

It depends on the definition of "close", but it certainly doesn’t sound like it. The Giants have always been comfortable letting Barkley play out the season on the franchise tag and then deciding on his long-term future next offseason. The guaranteed money was the key to any deal and, in the end, the Giants offered more than $22 million in guarantees, according to a source — the total price of franchise tags in each of the next two seasons. But they were only willing to offer that much if there were other concessions in the deal, a source said, including a lesser average value in the contract.

The Giants went way out of their financial comfort zone in February when they signed quarterback Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million deal. They weren’t willing to do that with Barkley, not when they had the franchise tag as leverage.

What are Barkley’s options now?

He only has two: He can sign the franchise tag and play the season on a one-year, $10.1 million deal, or he can sit out the 2023 season.

Would Barkley really sit out the entire season?

The people in his camp certainly want everyone to think he might. You can expect lots of leaks this summer that he’s preparing to do just that. Is it realistic? Not really, because it’s crazy. If Barkley sat out the season, he’d lose a year of his prime at age 26, plus the $10.1 million. And he’d gain nothing because the Giants could just franchise him again next year for close to the same price. He’d be in the exact same position, only he’d be a year older and he’d have given up $10.1 million in earnings.

Yes, it worked out for Le’Veon Bell when he sat out the 2018 season, the Steelers decided to not re-tag him and he got a four-year, $52.5 million deal from the Jets with $35 million in guaranteed money in 2019. But that worked out so badly for the Jets it’s hard to imagine any team would repeat that mistake, especially in an environment where running backs are being devalued.

Will Barkley sit out training camp?

Yes. Definitely. He will not be there when the rest of his team reports on Tuesday, July 25, a source said. His representatives are already leaking that he won’t be back until Week 1, and there’s no reason not to believe them. He doesn’t start getting paid until the regular season starts, and since he’s not under contract he can’t be fined for missing camp.

As long as he thinks he can be ready for the opener, there’s not much incentive for him to show up in camp at all.

What would he gain by doing that?

Well, nothing really, except some time at home or with his own personal trainer. It’s really just to make a statement of some sort. Barkley can’t force the Giants’ hand with a holdout because they’re not allowed to offer him anything other than the tag until after their last regular season game on Jan. 7, 2024.

Do the Giants want to eventually sign him long-term?

Yes and no. They understand his value, both on and off the field, but this new regime under General manager Joe Schoen doesn’t value running backs the way former GM Dave Gettleman did. They’re willing to give him a long-term deal, but on their financial terms. In fact, according to a source, they think offering more than $22 million in guarantees was a pretty big stretch for them — and not something they intended to do when negotiations started.

So yes, if they could get Barkley locked up for three or four years they’d be happy with that, if the terms were right for them.

If they don’t sign him long term, will he be a free agent next March?

Not necessarily. The Giants could use the franchise tag on him for a second year in a row — this time for $12.1 million. Whether they’d be willing to spend that much on a 27-year-old running back, though, would be totally dependent on how Barkley performs this season and how healthy he is when it’s over.

What leverage does Barkley have left?

Really, none. He could sit out the season, hope the Giants crash and burn and that it proves to them how valuable he really is. But again, the Giants could just use the franchise tag on him then, too. And they’d have all the leverage back at that point because they’d know Barkley isn’t dumb enough to sit out a second season. That would basically be throwing away his career.

But aren’t the Giants in a lot of trouble without him?

Probably. He and Jones were the Giants’ offense last season, and even with a slightly improved group of skill players around him, Jones will probably be a lot less effective without Barkley in the backfield. Maybe with a backfield committee of Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell and rookie Eric Gray they could generate a decent rushing attack. But it probably won’t be enough to power a playoff push.

Unfortunately, there’s nothing the Giants can do about that now. It’s completely up to Barkley when or if he shows up. There’s no offer or concessions the Giants can make to lure him back.

So how will this all end?

Not well. Barkley is not very happy with how this was resolved. He’ll sit out the summer and, most likely, show up for the regular season, but it’s hard to imagine he’s going to hide his unhappiness. That will loom over everything this season, and could make it really difficult for him if he struggles.

As for his long-term future, don’t be so sure the Giants will tag him again. And if they didn’t offer him the kind of long-term deal he wants now, it’s hard to imagine their position on that will change when he’s a year older. It’s much more likely that, for Barkley and the Giants, this summer of discontent will be the beginning of the end.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.