Week 12 NFL picks against the spread, ranked in order of confidence | J-MAC’S NFL SUPER 6
Last week was a tough one ... you guys know I like to back the underdogs, and they got slaughtered by the favorites. I'm changing it up and leaning toward the favorites this week, but you know I've still got a soft spot for a few long shots.
Speaking of favorites, this has to be my favorite slate of NFL games this season: Cowboys at Patriots, Niners vs. Packers and Eagles at Seahawks. And to add to the fun, the playoff picture starts coming into focus. Every game, every win holds more weight. And you know me, I love those higher stakes.
And with that risk, I'm hoping for that reward ... let's see who I'm picking for Week 12:
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
First up, and my clear favorite pick of the week is Tennessee. The reasons I like the Titans are simple: Since Ryan Tannehill took over, this is a staggering stat: They are 10-10 in the red zone in their last four games. They lead the league this season in red zone efficiency - they are getting those touchdowns, hitting 72%. Just take a guess who is last in the NFL in red zone efficiency … you got it. The Jacksonville Jaguars at just 32%. In recent history, Tennessee has owned this series: 6-2 against the spread in the last eight. This is a no-brainer, I love the Titans favored by 3.5 against the Jaguars.
New York Jets +3 vs. Oakland Raiders
Okay, okay, I know Oakland’s hot - everybody likes them. But I’m going with the Jets here (and this isn’t just because I’m a Jets fan). Come on guys … the Raiders on the road as favorites? That’s just not the reality. Let me break it down: The New York Jets run defense will stop Josh Jacobs and the Jets will win this game outright. Give me New York getting three at home against Oakland.
Miami Dolphins +10.5 at Cleveland Browns
We’ve got Miami going on the road from warm Florida to chilly Ohio … and they are just 3-7 against the spread when the temperature is 35 degrees or less. I don’t know if that factors into your handicapping, but it’s the reason I like the Browns here.
I know this a big number ... but Cleveland is coming off that embarrassing fight marred performance against the Steelers. Plus Freddie Kitchens had some extra time - I think they put it on the Dolphins. Remember: Miami stunk up the joint against Buffalo last week, and guess what: One of their touchdowns was from special teams. Just look at their offensive output ... they couldn’t do anything. I think the Browns show up big and take down the Dolphins. I’m all in on Cleveland favored by 10.5 against Miami.
New England Patriots -6 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Here’s a super six game for you ... and what a great matchup. The Cowboys and Dak Prescott with the No. 1 passing attack against the Patriots No. 1 pass defense. Folks, nobody has been successful against this New England pass defense. Lamar Jackson had a decent game … but guess what: He had a monster running attack, and they were at home. Dallas on the road - no shot. I’m going with Bill Belichick and his huge edge over Jason Garrett. Give me the Patriots to cover 6.5 at home against the Cowboys.
Green Bay Packers +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Sunday Night game is one for the books! And I’m going to go with the Packers in this one. Here’s why: Aaron Rodgers off a bye is 8-4-1 against the spread. Then we’ve got a 49ers defense that seems to be leaking oil … I know they are the No. 2 pass defense, but I don’t trust them in this spot. I’m going with Green Bay here on the road to cover 3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Earlier this year, Pittsburgh destroyed Cincinnati 27-3. This time around, the Steelers will be without their center Maurkice Pouncey due to a suspension following the fight against Cleveland. Also Juju Smith-Schuster - Pittsburgh's leading receiver - he’s doubtful for the game. But I’m still taking the Steelers with 6.5 to cover against Ryan Finley … this is strictly a bet Mike Tomlin (the Steeler's head coach).
Detroit Lions -3.5 at Washington Redskins
This is just a brutal game folks … enjoy it, and enjoy the Redskins pulling the upset. Detroit has only been favored twice this year - they’ve lost both of those against the spread. I love Washington here as big underdogs at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 at Atlanta Falcons
Coming at you with a Super 6. The Bucs are the worst team against the spread this year in the NFL sitting at 2-8 … call me a glutton for punishment, but I’m taking them here. Give me Tampa Bay getting 3.5 on the road. Come on guys, Atlanta’s not that good!
Seattle Seahawks +1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Here’s a Super 6 game for you, and this is probably the game on Sunday. Okay, Seattle on the road in Philly … we could spend ten minutes breaking down this game. It is fascinating folks. I can’t believe the Eagles aren’t even 3-point home favorites.
I’m going to take the Seahawks here - maybe a little bit reluctantly. But Russell Wilson on the road as an underdog is a spot he loves to be in. And there are injuries on the Eagles … we don’t know about Lane Johnson, the great offensive lineman - he suffered from a concussion last game. And after he went out, Philly didn’t score a point. I’m taking Seattle on the road getting 1.5.
New York Giants +6 at Chicago Bears
Another a Super 6! The New York Giants are six point underdogs in Chicago - this was at seven, and now it’s down to six. I think all the money coming in so far on the Giants, it’s that uncertainty at quarterback for the Bears. Mitchell Trubisky has a hip injury … Chase Daniel is an okay backup.
Don’t forget: The Giants had extra time to prepare with the bye week, and I think Daniel Jones can move the football against this Bears’ defense. Give me the points against a really down Chicago team … feels like their season is over. You wonder if they pack it in and maybe lose this outright? Give me the New York Giants getting six.
Carolina Panthers +9.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Third times the charm, we’ve got another Super 6! Carolina is a 9.5 point underdog in New Orleans … and this is right where riverboat Ron Rivera wants to be folks - as underdog of seven or more points in the last five years: He’s 6-2 against the spread. This is just too big a number for me. I like the Panthers getting 9.5 against the Saints.
Buffalo Bills -4 vs. Denver Broncos
Listen, I’ve gone against Brandon Allen two weeks in a row ... and he’s killed me both times. Call me crazy: I’m going for the hat trick. Give me Buffalo at home - they will win this game and beat Brandon Allen. He’s not winning back to back road games folks. Okay? He’s just not doing it. The Bills win and cover four.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Los Angeles Rams
This one is a shocker folks. The Rams, big underdogs … they just have not performed well as home dogs. They are 0-5-1 in their last six. And right now the Ravens are one of the best teams in the in NFL. They are on fire … the No. 1 running attack in the league, and the No. 3 run defense.
Don’t forget that big edge they recently acquired on defense: Baltimore, with Marcus Peters (who was traded from the Rams), has the No. 1 defense in the league … and that’s in games going against Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. This is a scary Ravens defense. I like them to go on the road and shut down Jared Goff - give me Baltimore favored by three.