Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys: Prediction, odds, picks

Having dropped one straight, the Washington Commanders (4-12) will take on the Dallas Cowboys (11-5). The Cowboys are big favorites (-13). 

The Commanders lost to the San Francisco 49ers 27-10 in Week 17, while the Cowboys edged the Detroit Lions 20-19 in their contest last week. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Cowboys and Commanders — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Dallas (-13) 
• Pick OU: Over (46) 
• Prediction: Dallas 33 - Washington 16

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

This is another situation where the motivations are disparate. 

The Cowboys are playing for the NFC East title and a No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs. 

The Commanders have nothing to play for, but we see this every year — a team with nothing to play for spoils things for a contender. 

This is a division game, and the Cowboys are an indoor team who thrives at home, but now they have to go outdoors and win by more than two touchdowns. 

This is probably Ron Rivera’s last ever game as an NFL head coach. I’m sure he wants to go out with a win. This is too many points.

PICK: Commanders (+13) to lose by fewer than 13 points (or win outright)

 

How to Watch Dallas vs. Washington

• Game Date: Sunday, January 7, 2024
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: FedExField
• Location: Landover, Maryland
• TV: Watch on FOX

Cowboys vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Dallas has put up four wins versus Washington.
• Washington has been outscored by 71 points in its last five tilts against Dallas.

Dallas Betting Info

• Dallas has nine wins in 16 games versus the spread this season.
• The Cowboys have won each of their two games this season when playing as at least 13-point favorites.
• Dallas games in 2023 have eclipsed the over/under eight times in 16 opportunities (50%).
• The Cowboys have put together an 11-1 record in games they played as moneyline favorite (winning 91.7% of those games).
• Dallas has played as a moneyline favorite of -800 or shorter in just two games this season, and it won both.
• The Cowboys have an 88.9% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

• Dak Prescott ranks fourth in the NFL with 4,237 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 264.8 per game with a 68.4% completion percentage and 32 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
• To go along with his passing statistics, Prescott has 242 rushing yards (third on the Cowboys), with two rushing touchdowns.
• CeeDee Lamb's 1,651 receiving yards this season (second in the NFL) have come from 168 targets and 122 receptions (first in the NFL). He's averaging 103.2 receiving yards and 7.6 catches per game, with 10 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL).
• Tony Pollard's output on the ground this season includes 935 yards (10th in the NFL) and five TDs. He's averaging 58.4 yards per game and 4.0 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
• Pollard has received 65 targets in the passing game and has 53 catches (3.3 per game) for 295 yards (18.4 per game) and zero TDs.
• Brandin Cooks has 618 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with 48 catches on 73 targets. He is averaging 3.2 receptions and 41.2 yards per game.

Defense

• Over on the defensive side, Micah Parsons has 59 tackles, 17.0 TFL, and 13 sacks in 2023.
• Daron Bland has 66 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and eight interceptions this season.
• Damone Clark has totaled 103 tackles and 4.0 TFL this year. His tackle total leads the Cowboys.
• Markquese Ball has 3.0 TFL and 92 tackles on the year.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread six times in 16 games with a set total.
• This season, the Commanders are winless ATS when entering a game as an underdog of 13 points or more.
• Games involving Washington have hit the over on nine occasions this season.
• This season, the Commanders have been the underdog 12 times and won three, or 25%, of those games.
• Washington has played as an underdog of +550 or more once this season and lost that game.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Commanders have a 15.4% chance to win.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• In 16 games played this year, Sam Howell has racked up 3,793 passing yards, while throwing 20 touchdowns against 19 interceptions and completing 63.1% of his passes.
• On the ground, Howell has added five rushing touchdowns and 264 rushing yards (second on the Commanders).
• Brian Robinson Jr. has scored five rushing touchdowns, while totaling 708 rushing yards (4.2 per attempt and 50.6 per game).
• Robinson has added 33 receptions (2.4 per game) for 358 yards (25.6 per game) with three receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 40 times in the passing game.
• Through 16 games played this season, Terry McLaurin has 73 catches (4.6 receptions per game on 7.7 targets per game) for 946 yards and four receiving touchdowns.
• Curtis Samuel has 598 receiving yards and four touchdowns from 60 receptions after receiving 87 targets.

Defense

• Kamren Curl has amassed 1.0 sack to go with 3.0 TFL and 115 tackles over 16 games in 2023.
• Cody Barton's stat sheet includes one interception as well as 113 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one pass defended.
• Da'Ron Payne has 50 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and four sacks in the 2023 season.
• Kendall Fuller's season stats include 79 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two interceptions through 15 games. He is fourth on the Commanders in tackles.