Two Sets of Falcons Season Predictions
Dec 20, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) slaps hands with head coach Dan Quinn (R) after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
The Atlanta Falcons are a team that could see some post season action if their schedule goes the right way.
With the new NFL season on the horizon, following the tease that is preseason, everyone is eager to make and showcase their NFL predictions.
I thought to put a twist on my own season predictions for the Atlanta Falcons. Instead of just making common game by game predictions for the birds, I decided to instead make two sets of forecasts: one being based on homer-ism, and the other being established by objectivity. This is an exercise of looking at the team as a fan, and then shifting the mindset to that of someone on the outside of that fandom.
It’s well documented that the birds blew a 5-0 start last season, and ended up missing the playoffs thanks to a 3-8 finish. This year, the Falcons will have to go through a gauntlet of tough games if they want to make any noise in the NFC playoff picture, as they have the league’s toughest schedule on tap.
Here are my game by game predictions for the ball club for this upcoming season; one set as a fan of the team taking an optimistic viewpoint, and the other as an objective football mind, making nothing but cold hard calculations.
First Four Weeks
Aug 20, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) and wide receiver Mike Evans (13) celebrate after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
Week 1: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into this season following a 2015 campaign which saw QB Jameis Winston pass for over 4000 yards and finish second in offensive rookie of the year voting (behind Todd Gurley). Their offense also features one of the game’s great young receivers in Mike Evans. RB Doug Martin, who was second in the NFL in rushing yards last season, sets up a formidable ground game.
Tampa Bay finished in the NFC South cellar for a fifth straight season (6-10) last year, but are eager and hungry to finally get out of that basement.
Their coaching staff features some familiar faces: head coach Dirk Koetter was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator for three seasons (2012-2014), while defensive coordinator Mike Smith remains the winningest head coach in Falcons history.
Homer Outlook – Matt Ryan has never lost a home opener in his career as a pro. Tampa Bay’s overtime victory in Atlanta last season was their first win at the Georgia Dome since 2007. Atlanta features two very good CBs to cover Winston’s receivers, and the team just drafted De’Vondre Campbell for the purpose of covering the tight end (who will probably be Cameron Brate with Austin Seferian-Jenkins getting in some off the field trouble).
Tampa Bay has nobody to cover Julio Jones (went for 20-255-1 in two games against the Bucs last season): Vernon Hargraves is making his NFL debut while Brent Grimes isn’t what he once was. Atlanta’s improved offensive line should give Matt Ryan time in the pocket to burn Tampa in the passing game.
Turnovers burned the Falcons in two meetings against the Bucs last season, but an emphasis on limiting those giveaways won’t hand Tampa the win this time around.
Homer Prediction: Victory (1-0)
Objective Outlook – Division games in the NFC South are almost always complete bloodbaths that could go either way. Case in point: nobody saw the Falcons losing to Tampa Bay last season, and they got swept.
Winston should be comfortable in the pocket thanks to Atlanta’s lack of a real pass rush (league low 19 sacks last season). Tampa Bay will be able to chip away at the Falcons if Doug Martin gets going, but there is some pessimism at his prospects of repeating what he did in a contract year last season.
Needing to settle into a new coaching scheme (first game for the new head coach and defensive coordinator) will really Tampa in this one, as they must face an explosive offense which features two absolute difference makers at skill positions (Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones). Atlanta’s home-field advantage will also prove to be a difference maker.
Objective Prediction: Victory (1-0)
January 31, 2016; Honolulu, HI, USA; Team Rice quarterback Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders (4) celebrates after a play in front of wide receiver Amari Cooper of the Oakland Raiders (89) during the second quarter of the 2016 Pro Bowl game at Aloha Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Week 2: @ Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders have been the sexy pick to win the AFC West this offseason. QB Derek Carr has proven to be a gem, and he has a very good receiving core to target. It’s led by the stellar Amari Cooper (4th pick in the 2015 NFL draft).
On defense, Oakland features one of the most fearsome pass rushers in the game in all-pro Khalil Mack (the only player to be an all-pro at two different positions last year). The addition of Bruce Irvin through free agency will only bolster the pass rush. They will be without the steady veteran presence of the great Charles Woodson, however, as the future hall of fame CB/S retired after the conclusion of last season.
The Raiders finished with a 7-9 record last year, climbing the ladder in the AFC, and now looking to climb that final rung into a playoff spot. Oakland is looking to end its team record 13 year playoff drought (second longest active streak; Buffalo – 16 years), and the fans in Raider nation are optimistic that this will be the year they finally make their postseason return.
Homer Outlook – The Raiders look poised for another step up this season, but they’ll have some trouble against the Falcons. Desmond Trufant is one of the best CBs in the game, and he should be able to blanket Amari Cooper, who’s looking to avoid that dreaded sophomore slump (and who had an underwhelming finish to last season).
Oakland was 16th in the NFL last season in passing yards per game (242.4). But in those late season games when Amari Cooper struggled (weeks 11, 13, 14, 16, and 17), Oakland averaged just 197.0 yards per game, which would’ve been good for second worst in the NFL through the course of a full campaign. Derek Carr’s TD:INT ratio in those five games was 6:5, in all other games it was 26:8. If Trufant can make Amari Cooper struggle in this one, Oakland’s passing attack will falter.
The Raiders’ run game, meanwhile isn’t something to really be afraid of as long as Latavius Murray continues to be the bell-cow (which he will, according to head coach Jack Del-Rio). Murray did crack the 1000 rushing yard plateau last season, but he was just 32nd in the league in rushing yards per attempt (4.0); he also really falters in the fourth quarter (2.2 ypc).
Atlanta’s stellar offensive tackles, meanwhile, should be able to keep the monster that is Khalil Mack off Matt Ryan for enough time to set up an effective passing game, and to exploit Oakland’s below average secondary (26th in the NFL last year in passing defense). Oakland was an above average side in run defense, but Devonta Freeman needs to just do enough to set up the play action for Matt Ryan, and he’s more than capable of that.
Homer Prediction: Victory (2-0)
Objective Outlook – The best thing the Raiders have going for them in this game is the fact that it’s being played on the west coast, and that Atlanta will have to make the cross country trip following their week 1 bout. If Atlanta’s players can’t adjust to the time change then Oakland will have a serious advantage.
On paper this looks like a game the Falcons will lose: west coast trip, and against a young upstart team poised for big things this year and in the future.
However, the passing statistics made in the “homer outlook” of this page can’t be ignored. The Raiders are just a different team when Amari Cooper is off his game, and Atlanta has one of the true shutdown corners in the league to contend with him. This will come down to the Trufant vs. Cooper matchup.
Without homer goggles even being on, it’s easy to see that Oakland’s run game with Latavius Murray isn’t very good (32nd in the NFL in yards per carry). The only reason he finished so high in the rushing yards rank last season is because every other running back got hurt.
Atlanta should be able to do just enough on defense and on offense in this one. Julio Jones looks poised for a huge game against a secondary which surrendered 284 yards to Antonio Brown last year.
Objective Prediction: Victory (2-0)
Aug 20, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) huddles agains the Houston Texans in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Week 3: @ New Orleans Saints
The best rivalry in the NFL will come to a head early in the season. Drew Brees is still very good. He would have thrown for 5000 yards yet again last season if he didn’t miss a game due to a shoulder injury. Even at age 37, he remains an elite quarterback and a major thorn in Atlanta’s side. The Saints had the number 1 passing offense in the NFL last year.
New Orleans will need every bit of Brees’ offensive magic this season, as they still have a poor defense (ranked 31st last year; 32nd the year before).
This will be a Monday Night Football game; and it will be the 10th anniversary of the Louisiana Superdome’s re-opening, following Hurricane Katrina.
Homer Outlook – The Saints are no longer that juggernaut squad of 2009, which struck fear into the hearts of their opponents. Their defense is downright awful, and they haven’t had a 1000 yard rusher since Deuce McAllister broke the plateau in 2006. Mark Ingram is a better than average running back but he’s constantly had to battle injuries in his career.
Stacking these sides up player to player, Atlanta has a better team. The defense is better (16th in the NFL last year, as opposed to the Saints’ 31st place finish), the run game is better, and the receiving core is better. The advantage New Orleans has always had was Drew Brees at quarterback, and they’ll continue to have that advantage this year.
Last year Brees killed the Falcons down the middle, targeting his tight end. But Atlanta finally addressed that weakness (which has plagued them for years) with the drafting of LB De’Vondre Campbell. Brees can no longer exploit that hole in the defense, while Desmond Trufant will be able to go step for step with his favorite target: Brandin Cooks.
Vic Beasley came so close to sacking Brees multiple times in the first match-up last season, and that was in his rookie season with a torn shoulder labrum. An improved and healthy Beasley should be able to knock Brees on the ground a few times.
Devonta Freeman should be able to set the tempo against what was the second worst run defense in the NFL last season, and that will make things much easier for Matt Ryan as a result.
Homer Prediction: Victory (3-0)
Objective Outlook – Drew Brees and Sean Payton have owned the Atlanta Falcons, there’s really no way of tiptoeing around that statement. Since these two joined the Saints in 2006, New Orleans has a 15-5 record against the Falcons in the past decade. They’re also 8-2 at home, against the birds, in that span.
The record (and even the talent to a certain extent) can be thrown out of the window when these two teams meet. There’s always bad blood in this rivalry, and both sets of players surely spend some extra time in the weight room the week leading up to this clash.
The schedule makers did the Falcons no favors this season, as the emotion in the Superdome will be running extremely high during the 10th anniversary of the re-opening, and that will signal doom for Atlanta. The hostile crowd will be the loudest its been since 2006, and the Saints players will feed off that energy as if it were a feast.
Games between the Falcons and Saints will always be close, they will always be brutal match-ups. This season both games between the bitter rivals will come down to who has the home-field advantage.
Objective Prediction: Defeat (2-1)
Aug 11, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (59) talk before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Week 4: vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers set the world on fire last season, and few people saw it coming. Cam Newton looked unstoppable for most of the season, accounting for 45 total touchdowns, on his way to winning the league MVP award.
Carolina team led the NFC in sacks, and had the 6th best total defense in the league.
That strength on both sides of the ball led them to a 15-1 regular season record, and the second Superbowl appearance in team history.
Up until 2013, the NFC South had never had back to back winners since its inception in 2002. Last season, the Panthers won the division for a third consecutive year. They are overwhelming favorites to win it again this year.
Homer Outlook – The Carolina Panthers went into the Georgia Dome last season with a 14-0 record, and they left with their only regular season defeat of 2015.
The Panthers are going to regress this year. Last season was a perfect storm of everything going right for Carolina (well, until the Superbowl that is). Few in the NFL community will predict a repeat of that spectacular 15-1 campaign.
Dan Quinn came up with a defensive scheme which just shut Carolina down, following a first drive touchdown, last season. The Panthers were held to their lowest scoring total of the year in that game (13 points), and Cam Newton was held in check (188 all purpose yards, 1 total touchdown). Vic Beasley terrorized Newton (4 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble), and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be able to do so again in this match-up.
Atlanta’s improved offensive line will make a real difference. Matt Ryan will be protected for enough time to find Julio Jones, who will have a field day. Jones had 178 yards and a touchdown in the week 16 game last year, and that was while Carolina still had the services of all-pro CB Josh Norman. There’s nobody in that Panther secondary who can hope to cover Jones.
The crucial NFC South match-up home-field advantage will play a part yet again.
Homer Prediction – Victory (4-0; no the “Homer Prediction” will not be a “Victory” every single time)
Objective Outlook – Carolina is a lot more talented than this Atlanta Falcons team. Luke Kuechly anchors a better defense, while Cam Newton is an absolute superstar leading a better offense.
The Falcons had trouble with RB Jonathan Stewart in the week 14 match-up in Carolina (10-75-1), and didn’t have to game-plan for the Oregon alum in the week 16 game. Stewart will be available (barring injury) in this one, and he will be a problem.
These NFC South games are almost always close (this one will be close as well), but you just can’t ignore the sheer talent advantage Carolina possesses over the Falcons. Atlanta will (hopefully) get to where Carolina is, in time, but they aren’t there yet.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (2-2)
Second Four Weeks
Feb 7, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after being named the Super Bowl MVP after beating the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 at Levi
Week 5: @Denver Broncos
Atlanta goes on their second cross country trip of the season in week 5, to take on the defending Superbowl champions. The Broncos will feature an underwhelming QB in former 7th round pick Trevor Siemian. The run game, behind Gary Kubiak’s own zone blocking scheme, looks poised to be the engine behind this Bronco offense.
The Denver defense was the best in the game last season, and despite the departures of DT Malik Jackson and LB Danny Trevathan, they look to be an upper tier defense once again this year. Superbowl MVP Von Miller still anchors this impressive unit.
Homer Outlook – The Falcons will be riding the momentum of another 4-0 start when they travel to Denver for a date with the defending champions. Von Miller looked like a man possessed in last year’s playoffs but Atlanta has one of the best Tackle combinations in the league to hold him at bay, in Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder.
If the Falcons can contain CJ Anderson in the run game, then shutting down Denver’s offense becomes straightforward. Trevor Siemian will probably be nothing more than a game-manager: if you force him to beat you with his arm then that’s your best bet to win. Desmond Trufant should be able to keep up with Demaryius Thomas, Robert Alford likewise with Emmanuel Sanders.
Unfortunately even limiting Denver’s offense might not be enough to get the win. The Bronco defense will prove to be too much for Matt Ryan, especially considering the fact that Denver is one of few teams with a CB duo that can keep up with Julio Jones (Aquib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.).
Stopping CJ Anderson’s movement in a Gary Kubiak offense is also easier said than done.
Homer Prediction – Defeat (4-1)
Objective Outlook – The Denver Broncos may be without a really good QB, but even Trevor Siemian should prove to be an upgrade over the corpse that was Peyton Manning last season. Manning threw 17 interceptions last year (the league lead was 18), despite missing five games. His interception percentage was 5.10%: the highest in the league among QBs with at least 200 attempts.
Denver’s playoff run was on the back of its defense and run game. They will be a grind it out team once again this season, and that does not bode well for Atlanta. Teams that control the clock and force turnovers are the worst possible match-up for this Falcons team. This isn’t even mentioning the fact that the Broncos led the league in sacks last season.
Having to travel to “Mile High” is even more of an advantage for this Denver squad, not that they’ll really need it.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (2-3)
Jan 3, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) hands off to running back Christine Michael (32) during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Week 6: @Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta doesn’t get much of a respite in this part of the schedule: going from hosting the defending NFC Champions (Carolina), to playing on the road against the defending Superbowl champions (Denver), and then traveling north for a date with the team that’s been the absolute class of the NFC since 2013 (Seattle).
This will be Dan Quinn’s homecoming, as he was the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks through those back to back Superbowl runs. Atlanta will more than likely go from Denver straight to Seattle, and practice there the week leading up to the game.
Marshawn Lynch retired, but Seattle’s run game was still strong in his absence (due to injury) last season. Thomas Rawls led the league in rushing yards per attempt (5.65).
Russell Wilson had the best season of his career (4024 passing yards, 34 TDs, 110.1 passer rating: all career highs). He finally made the step up from being a game manager to being one of the upper tier QBs in the league.
Homer Outlook – The Seahawks look scary, there’s no way around it. However, they do have a glaring weakness: their offensive line. Vic Beasley, Maurice Claiborne, Ra’Shede Hageman, Grady Jarrett, Brooks Reed and the rest of the front 7 must find a way to get to Russell Wilson, while also containing him inside the pocket. If they don’t, then it will be a long day for the defense.
The Seahawks’ defensive unit has always been the team’s strength: Seattle has had a top 2 defense each of the past three seasons (2013-2015; number 4 in 2012, and number 9 in 2011), and there’s no reason to expect a drop-off in that ranking.
Seattle had the best run defense in the NFL last season, and if they can take Devonta Freeman out of the picture then they will be able to really clamp down on Atlanta’s offense. Matt Ryan will be in for a long day if the Seahawks make his offense one dimensional (something they’re more than capable of doing).
Homer Prediction – Defeat (4-2)
Objective Outlook – Denver may have had the top ranked defense in the league last season, but Seattle’s defense remains the class of the NFL due to its sheer consistency (top 2 the past three seasons: number 1 in 2013 and 2014). Atlanta’s offense won’t have an easy time in this one.
Russell Wilson was the best QB in the league over the second half of the season. Seattle implemented a new spread offense during its week 9 bye week, and from that point forward Wilson had 26 TDs (1 rushing) and just 2 interceptions. Wilson can buy time even against a fierce pass-rush (something Atlanta does not have), and his quick release on short to intermediate passes makes it even harder to sack him.
The run game with Thomas Rawls, Christine Michael, and rookie CJ Prosise will wear the Falcon defense down, while Russell Wilson picks it apart through the air.
Seattle is just flat out a better team than Atlanta; and they’ll be playing at home, in front of the 12th man. The Falcon players might also be weary of all the travel they’ll have done in this two week stretch.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (2-4)
Aug 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) gestures during the first half against Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports
Week 7: vs. San Diego Chargers
The Falcons finally return home in week 7. And after having to go through the gauntlet in weeks 3-6, Atlanta plays host to the worst team on the schedule (when taking last year’s record into account).
The San Diego Chargers were not a good football team last season. They ranked 20th in total defense, 31st in total rushing yards (barely ahead of the last placed Detroit Lions), and QB Phillip Rivers had 13 interceptions thrown.
San Diego’s offensive line was among the worst in the league, but they hope that better health and continuity changes that this season.
RB Melvin Gordon enters his sophomore campaign with hopes for a bounce back season, after the abysmal rookie year he just had.
The Chargers played out a 4-12 record last year, and found themselves in the basement of the AFC West.
Homer Outlook – This should be one of the easiest win’s of the season for the Falcons. Atlanta will be able to control the clock, and the game, by grounding and pounding with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: San Diego had the 5th worst run defense in the league last season.
With the birds controlling the clock, Matt Ryan won’t have to do much more than protect the football, and pick the Charger defense apart with the weapon that is Julio Jones.
Jason Verrett is a very good CB, but he won’t be able to keep up with Jones one on one. If San Diego brackets Jones, then Ryan will be able to take a page out of Phillip Rivers’ book and find Mohamed Sanu on underneath crossing routes.
The Chargers ran the ball at a lower percentage than any other team in the NFL last season. If Melvin Gordon can’t establish his presence in the ground game, and San Diego’s offense becomes one dimensional yet again, then the Atlanta defense will be able to force mistakes. The Falcons had the 10th most interceptions last season (15).
Homer Prediction – Victory (5-2)
Objective Outlook – Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan have long been thought of as QBs in the same tier. Both put up big passing statistics, both make some costly mistakes at times, and both need talent around them to win.
Where Matt Ryan will have the advantage in this match-up is that talent aspect: he has a much better offensive line, his team trots out a much better rushing attack, and he has a much better go-to receiver.
Maybe Melvin Gordon does bounce back this season, but even if he does, that still won’t counteract Atlanta’s advantage when it comes to sheer talent around the quarterback. Matt Ryan is in a better position to win this game.
Objective Prediction – Victory (3-4)
Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) reacts in the huddle with teammates against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 8: vs. Green Bay Packers
Every year, about half the playoff field in the NFL changes: around half the teams that made the playoffs the year prior don’t find themselves in the postseason again. That’s just the unpredictability of the NFL. (Last season, that average did not play out, as only one-third of the playoff participants changed (4/12))
The Green Bay Packers are one of the special teams that have been consistent mainstays in the postseason over the years. The Packers have made seven straight playoff appearances (tied for the longest active streak; New England Patriots). With possibly the best QB in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers, leading the attack, Green Bay is expected to be playing in January once again this season.
The loss of star WR Jordy Nelson, in preseason last year, hurt the Packers’ offense, as they failed to win the NFC North for the first time since 2010. Nelson is back this year, and Green Bay looks poised to top their division for a sixth time in seven seasons.
Homer Outlook – The Green Bay defense was average last year (in the same camp as the Falcons), so maybe Atlanta’s offense will be able to get off and running in this one.
Speaking of running, the Packers’ run defense was 21st in the league last season. To have any chance of winning this game, Atlanta will have to utilize a very effective ground game which would control the tempo and keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands.
Last time these two teams met, on a cold December night in Wisconsin, Julio Jones famously went off for 11 catches and 259 receiving yards: almost single handedly dragging the Falcons to victory in a shootout. There’s still nobody on this Green Bay team who can cover him.
To win this game, the birds will have to play mistake free football and dictate the tempo with a strong run game, while also needing Julio Jones to be at his very best once again. When you need everything to go right, it seldom does.
Aaron Rodgers always roasts the Falcons, and he seems poised to do so once again.
Homer Prediction – Defeat (5-3)
Objective Outlook – Aaron Rodgers is just brilliant. Last time he played against Atlanta, he went for 327 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. With Jordy Nelson back and RB Eddie Lacy in better shape, Rodgers looks primed for another MVP-type year.
The Falcons scored 37 points in the last meeting and that still wasn’t enough. With the Green Bay run game poised to take a step forward (thanks to Lacy’s P-90X), Atlanta wouldn’t win a shootout.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (3-5)
Third Four Weeks
Dec 27, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) huddles up with offense against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Week 9: @Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A week one rematch. Last year the Bucs swept the Falcons in two agonizingly close games.
This match-up will be a Thursday Night game: Atlanta’s second prime time game of the season (week 3 against the Saints is the first).
Homer Outlook – The Falcons won’t have the home-field advantage this time around, but they will have the more veteran squad.
Atlanta shot itself in the foot in last year’s meeting in Tampa: failing to score a touchdown on three second quarter redzone appearances, famously letting Jameis Winston convert a 3rd and long due to lazy tackling, and turning the ball over on the final drive of the game.
With Matt Ryan now in the second year of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system, those redzone deficiencies, and turnovers, should be far less frequent. That offensive continuity is what will enable Atlanta to pull this one out in a nail biter.
The offensive line’s improvement and Vic Beasley’s step forward should help the Falcons as well.
Homer Prediction – Victory (6-3)
Objective Outlook – Tampa Bay has amassed a lot of talent from picking in the higher part of the first round, over the years. By week 9, the defense should be gelling together in Mike Smith’s system, and rookie Vernon Hargreaves will have his feet wet against NFL competition.
The fact that Atlanta only lost those games against Tampa last year because of turnovers can’t be ignored. With the massive emphasis on protecting the ball, and with the continuity of the offense, those mistakes will be far more limited this season.
However, Tampa Bay will probably be a better team this year than they were last year. Jameis Winston will take a step forward, and Mike Evans will bounce back from a 3 touchdown campaign (he caught 12 TDs as a rookie).
The main question is whether or not Doug Martin will shine again this season, now that he’s no longer in a contract year. But even if the muscle hamster drops off, the improved passing game should be enough to compensate for that reduction in production.
Both teams are better this year than they were last year. In this divisional rivalry game, home-field will be what separates them yet again.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (3-6)
Aug 11, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (7) reacts with running back Ryan Mathews (24) after his touchdown run against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Week 10: @Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles get their shot at some revenge against the team that beat them in the season opener last year.
After a 7-9 season, Philadelphia underwent a full on identity change: firing head coach/GM Chip Kelly and trading away key players Kelly brought to Philly (Demarco Murray, Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell).
Doug Peterson, former offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs, took over as head coach in the city of brotherly love.
Homer Outlook – The Eagles will be a team running under the philosophy of a rookie head coach, and operating in a completely new offensive scheme than the one Chip Kelly ran. Falcons fans know first hand about the hurdles associated with this lack of continuity.
Sam Bradford is average at best at the quarterback position, never living up to the hype of being the first overall selection in 2010. The Eagles passing attack doesn’t strike much fear into the opposition after the disappointing 2015 season endured by both Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor: the two starters at wide receiver.
Ryan Matthews, meanwhile had a good season running the ball: he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but only on 106 total carries. It is questioned whether or not he can be as productive now that he’ll be getting the bulk of early down work.
Julio Jones eviscerated the Eagles in the meeting between these two team last season: he had 9 catches (on 11 targets) for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. This Philly team, ranked 28th in pass defense last season, can’t stop Atlanta’s aerial attack.
Homer Prediction – Victory (7-3)
Objective Outlook – The Eagles were an above average offensive team last season, how much that had to do with Chip Kelly offensive brilliance will be discovered this year.
TE Zach Ertz, who averaged 112.5 yards per game over the final quarter of last season, is going to be a big contributor to this offense. Doug Peterson ran a scheme which featured a hefty amount of targets for TE Travis Kelce in KC: he could make Ertz into a star.
The Eagles’ defense, however, was awful last season, ranking 30th in the NFL. Unless a radical scheme change shoots them into at least league average on this side of the ball (very unlikely), they’ll be in trouble. The Falcons shouldn’t have a problem going up and down the field in this one.
Objective Prediction – Victory (4-6)
Oct 26, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) against the Baltimore Ravens at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Week 12: vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals had their best season since the Superbowl run of 2008, last year: they went 12-4, won the NFC West division, earned the second seed in the NFC, and got to the NFC Championship game.
WR Larry Fitzgerald turned back the clock, working in the slot, as he went for 1215 receiving yards and 9 TDs.
QB Carson Palmer set career highs in passing yards thrown (4671), average yards per pass (8.7), passing touchdowns (35), passes that went for 20+ yards (65), and quarterback rating (104.6).
The defense improved despite the departure of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, while the offense was explosive as ever.
Homer Outlook – The Arizona Cardinals had a tremendous 2015 season, but it seems like this year Carson Palmer won’t repeat the success he just had. This will be his age 37 year, and he just had the outlier season of his career.
It’s pretty hard to be optimistic when talking about a game against Arizona, arguably the most complete team in football; but there are two causes for optimism: the schedule, and Julio Jones.
Atlanta will have an extra week to prepare for the Cardinals, as the bye week will fall on week 10. That should be an advantage for Dan Quinn and the coaching staff to take.
Julio Jones will be the best chance Atlanta has at winning this game. Last time these two teams met, Jones famously destroyed Arizona All-Pro CB Patrick Peterson. The run defense for the Cards is too stout for Freeman to run through: this will have to be an aerial ambush.
In the end, Arizona just has too much firepower on offense and is too good on defense for Atlanta to pull out the victory. Even if Julio Jones goes off, Arizona can still overcome that hurdle, unlike last time, when Ryan Lindley was the quarterback.
Homer Prediction – Defeat (7-4)
Objective Outlook – You don’t have to look further than the stats to appreciate how good the Arizona Cardinals were last season. They were fifth in total defense, and the best offensive team in the NFL (number 1 in total offense): the Cardinals and Seahawks were the only teams in football to finish the season ranked top 5 in both offense and defense.
Arizona’s defense got even scarier this offseason, as they added former Patriots’ standout DE Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks last season) in a trade with New England; and the physically monstrous DE Robert Nkemdiche in the first round of the draft.
RB David Johnson, a gem found by the Arizona front office in the middle rounds of the 2015 draft, had an incredible rookie season, and looks poised to build on his success.
The WR core that Carson Palmer has to work with is absolutely destructive: Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown are arguably the best trio in the league.
Arizona boasts too much talent for Atlanta to handle.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (4-7)
Oct 11, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) hands off to running back Jamaal Charles (25) during the first half against the Chicago Bears at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The 2015 season will always be a memorable one for the Chiefs. After starting the year out with a 1-5 record, Andy Reid’s troops rattled off 10 straight wins to secure a playoff spot.
Kansas City won their wildcard game against the Texans, before losing in the divisional round to the Patriots.
Star RB Jamal Charles suffered a season ending injury, but backups Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware filled in admirably in his absence.
TE Travis Kelce and WR Jeremy Maclin are the best weapons at QB Alex Smith’s disposal, but KC is a team that wins behind the muscle of its defense. DE Justin Houston anchors said defense, as a top 5 pass rusher in the NFL.
Homer Outlook – The Chiefs are a very complete team with a good run game, a (seemingly) solid passing game, and a stout defense.
Atlanta, however, can make this Chiefs’ offense one dimensional in this game. If Desmond Trufant can shadow and take away Jeremy Maclin, and if DeVondre Campbell does a good job covering TE Travis Kelce, then Atlanta will shut down an already underwhelming passing attack; the Chiefs were just 30th in the league in passing offense last season.
Being able to successfully single cover Alex Smith’s weapons (Trufant is certainly capable, Campbell might need some help with Kelce) will allow the Falcons to stack the box against Charles and the run game. The battle on that side of the ball will come down to how well the birds can cover one on one.
On offense, meanwhile, Atlanta might struggle against last year’s seventh best overall defense. CB Marcus Peters led the league in interceptions his rookie year but even he won’t be a match for Julio Jones one on one (no CB on the planet is). Justin Houston, however, underwent a major knee surgery in the offseason and might not be playing in this one (and if he does he might not be 100%). That would be a huge break for the Falcons.
Atlanta wins this one in a squeaker.
Homer Prediction – Victory (8-4)
Objective Outlook – The Chiefs’ season last year was the polar opposite of Atlanta’s campaign. The Falcons started out 5-0, while KC was 1-5. Atlanta suffered six straight losses at one point, and the Chiefs ended their season with 10 wins in a row. You don’t just win 10 in a row in this league unless you have some serious talent and coaching.
Kansas City is a superbly coached team which has a true identity of grinding games out with their defense, running the ball down their opponent’s throat, and having Alex Smith and the passing attack do just enough in a game manager role. These types of team are supremely dangerous.
The Chiefs force a lot of turnovers: they had the second most interceptions in the NFL last year (22) and were second in the league in turnover margin (+14). Atlanta, meanwhile, had 30 giveaways last season, which was a mark good for seventh worst in the league. Even with Dan Quinn’s added emphasis on protecting the ball, these stats spell disaster for the birds.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (4-8)
Final Four Weeks
Dec 6, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams quarterback Nick Foles (5) hands the ball to Todd Gurley (30) against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Week 14: @Los Angeles Rams
The Falcons will be one of eight teams to play at the Los Angeles Memorial Colosseum this season, against the newly minted Los Angeles Rams.
LA is a city of glamour, a city where stars are needed on the sports teams: Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, Clayton Kershaw ect. Luckily for the city, the Rams come to town with a true superstar on their roster in the form of former UGA running back Todd Gurley.
Despite missing the first four games of the season last year, Gurley still finished third in the league in rushing yards (1106), and fifth in rushing touchdowns. He was one of only three players to crack 1000 yards rushing and 10 rushing touchdowns (Adrian Peterson; Devonta Freeman).
On defense Aaron Donald is a star, but there’s not much else there. Former number one CB Janoris Jenkins signed with the Giants this past offseason.
QB Jared Goff was the first overall pick in the draft, but whether or not he’s ready to be a starter in this league his rookie year remains a question.
Homer Outlook – The Rams look yet again like they’re going to be a team in that 7-9 or 8-8 range, in the absolute pit of mediocrity.
Todd Gurley is an absolute star, but that Rams offense looks poised to be very one dimensional. Jared Goff look like he still needs some seasoning before being ready to really help out that offense.
LA’s receiving corps, consisting of Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt as the most dangerous weapons, don’t intimidate any team.
Aaron Donald on the interior defensive line is an anchor, but the Rams have no answer for Atlanta’s passing game, led by Julio Jones.
Homer Prediction – Victory (9-4)
Objective Outlook – One can’t overlook the fact that Atlanta will need to make the cross country trip to California for this game. However, it will be their third cross country trip of the season, so they will have become somewhat used to it by week 14.
When looking at both teams’ rosters, the Rams have two of the top three players overall in Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley. The UGA product should be able to run all over the Falcons’ defense if the battle in the trenches doesn’t go Atlanta’s way.
An underwhelming passing game will be the downfall for the Rams, however. LA is trotting out a rookie QB and one of the worst WR corps in football. Atlanta should be able to stack the box against Gurley, like most teams will be doing against Los Angeles this season.
A terrible passing game last year resulted in the Rams having statistically the worst offense in football.
LA’s defense is also rather underwhelming: finishing 23rd overall in the NFL (one of the 10 worst). Aaron Donald is a beast but he can’t do it all by himself, on that side of the football.
Objective Prediction – Victory (5-8)
Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) hands the ball off to running back Carlos Hyde (28) against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at Levi
Week 15: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Both of these teams have fallen at warp speed since that NFC Championship game in the Georgia Dome, in 2012. The Falcons haven’t made the playoffs since then, while the 49ers made it back to that game in 2013, but have since collapsed.
QB Colin Kaepernick, who was thought of as being on the fast track to a legendary career, might be riding the bench this season: backing up former first round bust Blaine Gabbert.
San Francisco did beat Atlanta last season, while the Falcons were in the middle of the doldrums, after Dan Quinn opted to go with a conservative field goal call at the end of that game.
Chip Kelly has taken over head coaching duties in The City by the Bay.
Homer Outlook – To say this 49ers team is a far-cry from that squad that made back to back NFC Championship games (and one Superbowl) would be an understatement.
The defense collapsed on the back of retirements (Justin Smith, Patrick Willis), old age (Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner: who are no longer on the team), and just sheer stupidity (Aldon Smith).
Speaking of collapse, Colin Kaepernick’s fall from grace has been so spectacularly steep that one would hardly believe it. From starting in a Superbowl and being proclaimed as the next big thing to warming the bench behind Blaine Gabbert. Needless to say, the 49ers’ passing attack isn’t very intimidating.
The Falcons are playing at home against an inferior football team. There will be many games this season that will be hard to win, but this is not one of them.
Homer Prediction – Victory (10-4)
Objective Outlook – The one thing that can’t be overlooked here is that the 49ers beat the Falcons last season, 17-16, in Frisco. That was in the middle of Atlanta’s mid season cataclysm, and in large part a result the offense’s struggles in a new system.
The 49ers are still a team that was the second worst offensive team and fourth worst defensive team in football last season. Chip Kelly’s hire should help the offense, but San Francisco does not have the firepower to hang with the birds.
Objective Prediction – Victory (6-8)
Jan 17, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) and wide receiver Ted Ginn (19) dab prior to the game between the Carolina Panthers and the Seattle Seahawks in a NFC Divisional round playoff game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Week 16: @Carolina Panthers
In a Christmas Eve special, the Atlanta Falcons will travel up I-85 for a meeting with the Panthers in Charlotte. This certainly might be a game with a lot on the line when we get to it.
Homer Outlook – The Falcons beat the Panthers in week 16 last season, but that was in the Georgia Dome. Overall, it’s hard to have a positive outlook on this game, especially after the birds lost 38-0 in the last trip to North Carolina’s capital.
Carolina has the talent advantage in this match-up, and the home-field advantage.
Homer Prediction – Defeat (10-5)
Objective Outlook – See above.
Objective Prediction – Defeat (6-9)
Oct 15, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) and Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) talk following a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints defeated the Falcons 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Week 17: vs. New Orleans Saints
Just like last season, the Falcons will play host to the New Orleans Saints in the final week of the regular season. No matter what the records are, this game will be a huge match when it comes to offseason bragging rights.
Homer Outlook – Just like how the Saints will have emotion on their side in the week 3 match-up this season, the Falcons will have the emotional advantage in this game: the last game to ever be played in the Georgia Dome.
If either of these teams have anything at all to play for in this game, the other will do absolutely everything in its power to ruin those chances at either the playoffs or at better playoff seeding: that’s what a rivalry is all about after all.
The records can be thrown out come week 17. But just like how the birds have a disadvantage in talent and venue against the Panthers week 16, they will have both of those advantages against the Saints in week 17. Get ready for an offseason of bragging, Falcons fans.
Homer Prediction – Victory (11-5)
Objective Outlook – When Drew Brees is slotted in at QB for the Saints, they always have a chance to beat the Falcons. You can look through the success Brees has had in his career against Atlanta on page 1 of this article.
In fact, you can see everything that needs to be said about this match-up on page 1 of this article, in the “week 3” portion.
I objectively predicted the Saints winning that week 3 game because they will have the home-field advantage and the raw emotion on their side. In week 17, however, it’s the Falcons who will have both the home-field and the emotional advantage.
Objective Prediction – Victory (7-9)
So there you have it, my official Atlanta Falcons 2016 season predictions, and my reasoning for it all: both objective and as a fan.
My heart says 11-5, while my head says 7-9. Hopefully Atlanta’s record will reflect something a lot close to the former, as opposed to the ladder.
What do you think Atlanta’s record will be this season?
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