Tua Tagovailoa extension just one of Dolphins’ offseason riddles to solve

The Miami Dolphins' past two seasons have ended the same way, like the hare in the nursery rhyme. And to make matters worse for Miami, the Buffalo Bills retained the AFC East title in the way of the tortoise, eclipsing the Dolphins with a steady, late-season win streak.

The Dolphins' collapse left little faith (outside Miami) that they could win in Kansas City against the Chiefs in the wild-card round of the postseason. And Miami proved its doubters right. Its offense, which at one point was putting up historic statistics, scored just seven points against the Chiefs. 

It showed just how low the Dolphins could go.

The playoffs are when the best-built teams begin to peak. And that's when the Dolphins fell flat. So how successful was this team?

"That's always a little bit of a trick question, because the goal was always to win first the AFC East, then a playoff game, then the Super Bowl," said Miami GM Chris Grier. "We fell short of those goals."

It has become a pattern. Two years in a row, the Dolphins have looked their worst to close out their season, leaving them looking unprepared and generally depleted in the postseason. 

"We won nine games a year ago, 11 this year," Grier said. "We've taken steps. I think we have a good roster. Whether success, failure, I leave that for you guys to judge, but I think we're building something good that we feel good about. We're looking forward to continuing that in the offseason towards next year."

But it's hard to say whether Miami's upward trend will continue. The Dolphins are approaching the point when they'll need to extend quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's contract, which will put even more pressure on their salary cap. When teams pay a QB big money, the supporting cast weakens. The depth chart grows shallow.

The money crunch is just getting started for the Dolphins. They are set to pay Tua $23 million in 2024 for his fifth-year option. They could just go straight for an extension, which — even if the money looks large nominally — could make his cap hit smaller for the upcoming year, if structured right. 

But it might not be wise for Miami to rush to give Tua a massive deal. The Dolphins could make 2024 another prove-it year for the quarterback, who was as much a part of the late-season collapse as anyone. It's their call: 1) Commit to Tua and help support him with the flexibility an extension provides or 2) make him prove himself yet again before the massive extension.

In either case, the Dolphins are set to run it back in 2024. Grier, head coach Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa aren't going anywhere. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio deserves another year to get this defense playing well. (Goodness, was that Dolphins defense bad … again.)

And whether they want to run it back or not, they're basically locked into this roster construction.

Even if the Dolphins determine how to stop losing against elite teams — and struggling at the end of the season — they don't have the money to make many changes. Miami is set to be $43 million over the cap, the fourth-worst cap situation in the NFL. It'll be tough for them to retain any players on their pending free agent list, which includes DT Christian Wilkins, center Connor Williams, guard Robert Hunt, linebacker Jerome Baker, safety DeShon Elliott, edge Andrew Van Ginkel and cornerback Nik Needham, among others. That's a lot of (likely) departing talent.

They'll have to look internally to fix their issues. The offense gets the most attention, but the more glaring issue is on defense.

The unit is riddled with question marks. The secondary should be the defense's strength, given the level of Greir's investment. Cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard are making big money but haven't been healthy (even when they're on the field). Cornerback Cam Smith, a 2023 second-rounder, barely played this year — which is a bad sign given how depleted the position got.

Elsewhere, edge rushers Bradley Chubb (ACL) and Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) are going to be returning from major injury. The whole pass defense needs to have a massive bounce-back in 2024. It will be interesting to see how much Fangio can get out of this unit, especially if he doesn't have Wilkins, the team's best defensive player.

And then there are the issues on offense. Unlike last season, there are a fair number of questions about what McDaniel can get out of this group.

The Dolphins tried six different offensive line combinations due to injury. The unit works around its center, with timing and protections, so it didn't help when Williams went on injured reserve and Liam Eichenberg, who has played every offensive line position in his NFL career, had to take over at center. Overall, Miami had to move guys around at left tackle, right guard and center.

There should be some question about playcalling. McDaniel struggled with discipline to stick with the run game. It's one thing to have a good run game. It's another thing to use it — even when you have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in your offense. 

When the Dolphins lost the lead this season, they always seemed to go away from their running game. It felt like the run game was at its best when the team was up by 20 points. That's all well and dandy. But you need your run game to get engaged when you're within the seven-point differential. I'm not sure that's when the Dolphins were at their best — nor do I think McDaniel used his running backs in those situations. 

The head coach was asked but wouldn't say if he is considering giving up playcalling duties for 2024. To me, that's not the solution. It's about McDaniel learning from his mistakes and tendencies.

If we want to think even more globally about other issues that might be plaguing the Dolphins, we can look at how they're built. Speed is great during the warm months. But when it gets cold, power wins. Size wins. Toughness wins. 

"We play a brand of football people don't want to play," Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen said at a press conference. "Everybody want to be out here playing cute, playing basketball on grass, and we ain't with that.

"You can do all that stuff. You're just gonna get hit in the mouth every play, honestly. We could care less about all the pretty stuff that you can do, gimmick stuff. You still got to line up and play football; you still got to get touched. That's our mindset."

Queen said that after beating the 49ers and before beating the Dolphins. It felt like a statement about both offenses. And, in hindsight, it felt like an accurate statement.

Things get even more complicated for the Dolphins' timing-based offense as the season goes on, because opponents gain an increased knowledge of the playbook. Tagovailoa is an anticipation passer, but defenses seem to be anticipating his anticipation. And if a defense gets one step ahead of this offense, everything falls apart. The more opposing teams see the Dolphins' plays on film, the more the defenses can anticipate what Tua wants to do with the ball. 

"It's tells in what Miami does and what San Fran does that I can't say right now, just in case we have to see those guys again," Queen said in an interview on "The Rich Eisen Show."

And with all the offensive line issues, Tagovailoa often became a one-read quarterback — not for lack of processing power, but for lack of time. His time to throw (2.36 seconds) was the fastest in the NFL in 2023.

So Miami has a strange blend of bad luck, polarizing playcalling and a speed-based roster that might just struggle in the cold.

Speaking of struggling in the cold, let's talk more about Tua. We know he might soon be a financial constriction point, with the QB likely set to demand somewhere north of $40 million per year. Might he also already be the schematic constriction point for this offense? 

In other words, is he holding this offense back? 

Statistically, his counting stats have been elite: 4,624 passing yards (first in NFL), 29 passing touchdowns (tied for fifth) and 14 interceptions (tied for fourth-best). Tagovailoa tied for fourth in the league with 36 big-time throws. (PFF defines a big-time throw as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.") Tua's big-time throw percentage of 5.8% tied for sixth among all QBs with at least nine starts. 

On the other hand, he tied for fifth in turnover-worthy plays with 23. Those turnover totals — for a timing-based quarterback who doesn't have the playmaking ability to overcome them — are not good.

When Tagovailoa was down one-possession or tied in the fourth quarter, he was 32-for-52 (61.5%) for 323 yards for one touchdown, two interceptions and a passer rating of 69.6. That's a measly 6.2 yards per attempt, down from his average of 8.3 on the season. He had just two big completions (passes that went for 20-plus yards). In other words, Tua is far from playing at his best in gotta-have-it situations.

It's not like Tagovailoa can't develop this element of his game. He needs to play smarter with the ball and better in the fourth quarter. People call it the "clutch gene," but the truth is that, like anything, improvement can come with experience. Maybe the Dolphins couldn't beat the playoff-caliber teams this year, in part due to Tua's shortcomings as a crunch-time passer. But many previously pointed to Lamar Jackson's shortcomings as a passer as the reason why the Ravens couldn't win in the postseason. And his Ravens are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl after he and Baltimore racked up big numbers on just about every defense in the NFL — the Dolphins included.

At this point, the Dolphins look like they're built to go undefeated at home and split their road games, which will help them secure home-field advantage for the postseason. That plan actually nearly came together, if not for their loss to Buffalo in the regular-season finale. Technically, the Dolphins had the Bills where they wanted them — in Miami in Week 18 for the No. 2 seed in the AFC. (Imagine if Buffalo went to Kansas City and the Dolphins hosted the Steelers in the wild-card round!)

Miami has no choice but to run this back for another year. But it might not be smart to secure Tagovailoa for the long term. The Dolphins will need him to start showing signs of improvement against elite teams and when his team is trailing. You won't always play with the lead, especially if Tua is making $50 million and the team can no longer afford Hill and Waddle. The supporting cast will never be as good as it is now. And paying Tua too much could land the Dolphins in an uncomfortable salary cap situation for years to come.

Tagovailoa has his limitations. He is a good quarterback in a great system. But he and McDaniel clearly haven't figured out how to get the most out of Tua — or, even worse, if this is the best Tua can play.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.