Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott headline NFL QBs under the most pressure in 2024

First and foremost, let's be clear: Every starting quarterback in the NFL is facing pressure this season.

If you're good enough to have a quarter-billion-dollar contract, there's the immense pressure of living up to that money. If you're not good enough, there's pressure to do everything you can to get yourself in position for such a jackpot deal.

If you're a rookie who was picked high in the draft, there's an increasingly short window in which to develop into a star before the team loses patience in its investment. That might only be two years. Consider the flotsam and jetsam of the 2021 first round, which now has seen Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones traded to second teams at a massive discount.

So, to narrow the field from 32 starting quarterbacks to just eight names here is to highlight the iceberg above water, to pinpoint those passers with unique and potentially difficult situations if 2024 doesn't work out the way they'd like it to. There's no shortage of QBs "getting paid a lot to not be winning playoff games," but here's who leads the pack.

1. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Is he the next NFL quarterback to join the $50 million a year club? There are now six in that elite fraternity, none 30 years old yet, none with a Super Bowl win on his résumé. Tagovailoa has yet to throw for 30 touchdowns in a season, has played in only one playoff game and lost it while throwing for 199 yards. But he led the NFL in passing yards last year with 4,624, and he stayed healthy and played a full 17 games for the first time after appearing in no more than 13 in any of his first three seasons.

There's a window of opportunity in the AFC East, where Miami's last division title was in 2008. Even more pressing for the franchise is that its last postseason victory was eight years prior. With the Dolphins' explosive offense and offseason defensive additions, can Tua get them over the hump before hitting free agency? How many tens of millions will he lose if he underperforms? He's currently making $23 million on his fifth-year option, but he could easily double that annually considering the going rate for merely good quarterbacks.

2. Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Dallas has an impressive cast of elite players waiting for huge contracts, with Prescott joined by receiver CeeDee Lamb and pass-rusher Micah Parsons. All three will likely command at least $30 million a year on new deals, and Prescott could double that as the league's first $60 million player. Win or lose, the Cowboys will lead the league in personnel drama.

Prescott turns 31 next week, and he's coming off an impressive season in which he led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and finished second in MVP voting. He needs 4,725 yards to become the Cowboys' all-time leading passer. He already has 37 more touchdowns than Troy Aikman, with 67 fewer interceptions. But here's the difference: Aikman went 11-5 in the playoffs with three Super Bowl wins; Prescott is 2-5 in the postseason over eight seasons as Dallas' starting quarterback.

So, how does 2024 unfold? Assuming the two sides don't strike a deal before the season, do the Cowboys win a Super Bowl and re-sign Prescott to a huge contract? Do they fall short in January and let Prescott walk, in effect hitting the reset button on multiple levels? Prescott could be the prize of 2025 free agency regardless. But leading the most popular team in the NFL before signing the richest contract of his career makes for his biggest challenge yet, even if he's all too familiar with the pressure that comes with the job.

3. Bryce Young, Panthers

There's considerable pressure on a No. 1 overall draft pick, and Young felt the weight of that last year. After going 23-4 as a starter at Alabama, he went 2-14 on a bad Panthers team that finished with the worst record in the NFL. What's more, the high price they paid to trade up for Young meant they didn't have the No. 1 pick that usually comes with that, making their rebuild that much harder.

New general manager Dan Morgan and new coach Dave Canales were active this offseason in upgrading the supporting cast around Young. The Panthers spent $153 million on two starting guards, traded for receiver Diontae Johnson and used their top three draft picks on skill players, starting with receiver Xavier Legette.

How much better will Young be in Year 2? He had 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions as a rookie, and the Vegas over-under on his TD passes this fall is a modest 18.5. He'll do well to exceed that, and to get Carolina to take some kind of step forward, if only to five or six wins and more relevance. If he fails to do so, however, the Panthers will have a high draft pick next spring and the temptation to reset with another quarterback.

4. Kirk Cousins, Falcons

Cousins is under a different kind of pressure than any other QB on this list. He received the biggest deal in NFL free agency, getting $180 million from Atlanta (including $100 million guaranteed) to leave the Vikings, only to see the Falcons use the No. 8 pick in the 2024 draft on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

The organization and new coach Raheem Morris have since made it clear that this is Cousins' team, and that Penix is the franchise's future. But if Cousins doesn't come out of the gate with individual and team success, the future could come sooner than he realizes. He's coming off a torn Achilles, and while he's expected to be back at full strength by the start of the season, any absence would put Penix on the field, with the threat of him playing well enough to stake a claim to the starting job.

Oddsmakers have made the Falcons the favorites to win the NFC South, even as the Bucs have won the division three years in a row and return their core. Cousins could be the answer for Atlanta, taking over a team that has struggled to find a quarterback and leader the past two seasons. But if he doesn't — and quickly — the 24-year-old Penix will be anxiously waiting to prove that he's the answer.

5. Daniel Jones, Giants

After uncertainty all spring, the Giants did not take a quarterback at No. 6 in the draft, selecting LSU receiver Malik Nabers instead. That gives Jones a better chance to keep his job in the second season of a four-year, $160 million deal. He's coming off a torn ACL, but his lone competition is newcomer Drew Lock, who has 28 touchdowns against 23 interceptions in four NFL seasons.

Was the Giants' playoff appearance in 2022 just a fluke? Jones hasn't thrown for more than 15 touchdowns in a season since his rookie year, and he's in a division with two teams with playoff expectations in the Cowboys and Eagles, plus a Washington team trying to get back to relevance under a new coach and quarterback.

If Jones gets back on the field healthy, his margin for error will be slim — his 2025 salary is only guaranteed against injury, so the Giants could move on after this year with just $22 million in dead money against the cap. A disappointing season could mean the end for Jones and Brian Daboll, and another franchise reset in 2025.

6. Russell Wilson, Steelers

Wilson is 35 and hasn't won a playoff game since 2019, and his two years in Denver were underwhelming enough that the Broncos are paying him $39 million not to play for them this season. He landed in Pittsburgh, still a bargain on a league-minimum contract, joining a team that has won despite getting very little from its quarterbacks since Ben Roethlisberger retired.

But Wilson isn't the only low-cost experiment in town, as Pittsburgh acquired Justin Fields from the Bears for a low-round 2025 draft pick. If Wilson isn't immediately the answer there — if he looks like his 2022 self, for instance — the Steelers could turn to Fields, who is only 25 and is two years removed from a 1,000-yard rushing season. The lesser of those two quarterbacks might not get another clear chance to be an NFL starter, so there's an urgency at quarterback not seen by many playoff-caliber teams in 2024.

7. Josh Allen, Bills

Allen has finished in the top five in MVP voting three times in four years and the Bills have won four consecutive AFC East titles. But an exodus of talent raises the question whether their Super Bowl window has closed. Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston and Gabe Davis left in free agency to Jacksonville, leaving Allen to throw to rookie Keon Coleman and newcomer Curtis Samuel. Meanwhile, the Buffalo defense also lost a few of its biggest names.

Allen has the huge contract and has lived up to the high expectations that come with it, but elite quarterbacks are often measured by postseason success. Allen has won at least one playoff game four years in a row, but the Bills haven't made it back to the conference title round since 2020. Will his legacy ultimately be as the guy unfortunate enough to play in the AFC at the same time as Patrick Mahomes?

8. Aaron Rodgers, Jets

Second acts after an iconic run with one franchise don't always go well. We saw Tom Brady win a Super Bowl with the Bucs, but we've also seen Brett Favre, Joe Montana and other legends finish their careers in other uniforms without much to show for it. Rodgers' 2023 lasted only four snaps, and he's coming back from a major injury at age 40, still carrying the lofty hope of a four-time NFL MVP.

You could argue no team has the wild boom-or-best extremes that the Jets have. If he's healthy and everything comes together, anything is possible, but if he isn't, and it doesn't, could this be the end? He's a no-brainer first-ballot Hall of Famer regardless, but there are major questions hanging over how his final chapter will shake out in New York.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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