Trevor Lawrence still battling Gardner Minshew to start Week 1 for Jaguars
Conventional wisdom says that a quarterback taken first overall in the NFL Draft is likely to start Week 1 of the following season.
Going off of recent history, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow both started in Week 1 after being selected first overall in 2019 and 2020, respectively, so the evidence suggests that Trevor Lawrence should be the Jacksonville Jaguars' starting QB come September.
But according to Jaguars rookie head coach Urban Meyer, conventional wisdom and recent history don't matter much once the pads are on.
In a recent interview with the "Green Light Podcast," Meyer declared that he is not quite ready to publicly announce his starting quarterback.
The announcement might come as a shock, considering the pedigree that Lawrence brings to the Jaguars after a dominant college career. In three years at Clemson, he led the Tigers to the College Football Playoff each season, winning the national championship as a freshman.
During those three years, Lawrence lost just two games while throwing 90 touchdown passes and becoming one of the most hyped quarterback prospects in recent draft history.
But none of that seems to matter to Meyer, and with Gardner Minshew the incumbent under center, Meyer might have good reason to wait to put Lawrence in the fire.
In nine games played last season, eight of which were starts, Minshew threw for 2,259 yards, 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
In a deeper look into his production the past two seasons, Minshew's numbers stack up well next to the most recent quarterback taken first overall who didn't start right away: Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns.
Colin Cowherd explained on Thursday's edition of "The Herd" that Minshew has a legitimate claim to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, despite being taken with the 178th pick of the 2019 NFL Draft.
He juxtaposed Minshew's career to Mayfield's.
"Gardner Minshew is actually really talented. Same size, by the way [as Mayfield]. Same personality. They go to the NFL, and here are their career averages — they are identical. They both complete about 62% [of their passes]. Minshew has the better passer rating. It's virtually identical."
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Colin Cowherd examines the surprising similarities between Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew after Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer said Trevor Lawrence will not be the guaranteed starter come Week 1.
Cowherd has a point. While Mayfield has 45 starts compared to just 20 for Minshew — Baker also has 23 wins as a starter compared to seven for Gardner — their career averages are similar.
Mayfield has completed 61.9% of his passes for 241.6 yards per game, with an 89.1 passer rating. Minshew has completed 62.9% of his passes for 240.4 yards per game, with a 93.1 passer rating.
Both throw 1.6 touchdowns per game, and Mayfield averages 0.9 interceptions per game, as opposed to 0.5 for Minshew.
Just as Minshew's career numbers mirror Mayfield's, it wouldn't be the worst thing if Lawrence's rookie year mirrored Mayfield's as well.
Mayfield did not start the first three games of his rookie season for the Browns, but after becoming the starter in Week 4, he led Cleveland to a 6-7 record while throwing 3,725 yards and 27 touchdown passes.
Lawrence riding the pine on Week 1 might seem farfetched. But it wasn't too long ago that a quarterback selected No. 1 in the most recent NFL Draft did not start Week 1.
Who was that QB, you ask?
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