Three reasons NFL should not sleep on Sean McVay’s revamped Rams
After the Los Angeles Rams finished an embarrassing 5-12 in 2022, expectations are predictably low for Sean McVay's team heading into the 2023 season.
According to FOX Bet, the over/under for Rams victories this season is 6.5. The Rams are +300 to make the playoffs (bet $100 to win $300) and +1000 to win the NFC West (bet $100 to win $1,000).
Due to salary cap constraints after riding general manager Les Snead's "F Them Picks" approach to a Super Bowl title two years ago, the Rams lost 16 significant contributors in free agency this offseason. They also traded Jalen Ramsey, the team's best defensive back, to the Miami Dolphins for a third-round selection and tight end Hunter Long.
Because of L.A.'s youth movement — the team selected a league-high 14 players in this year's draft — many around the league expect the Rams to fall on their face again in 2023.
However, there's a possibility that Los Angeles could surprise for the upcoming season — and it all starts with McVay.
"You're aware of it," he told reporters during mandatory minicamp when asked if he's motivated by the negative talk nationally about his team. "I think you want to be motivated by being in the moment and being as good as we possibly can be. And I know this: There's a lot of things that we can learn from when you draw on experiences."
Despite the narrative that the Rams will struggle, here are three reasons why L.A. could get things turned around sooner rather than later.
1. Sean McVay can still coach.
Since his arrival in 2017, McVay is 60-38 (.633 winning percentage) during the regular season and 10-7 in the postseason. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have won more games during McVay's time as L.A.'s head coach. He has led the team to two Super Bowl appearances and one title. The Rams have won the NFC West three times and McVay has had just one losing season in six years.
Pro Football Focus recently ranked McVay No. 6 among all 32 head coaches in the NFL. That sounds about right.
Although he contemplated giving up coaching after last season, McVay will be motivated to prove he's still one of the best to do it following the worst performance by a defending Super Bowl champ in NFL history.
McVay has an experienced coaching staff in place, including defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, defensive line coach Eric Henderson, receivers coach Eric Yarber, linebackers coach Mike Shula and defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant. That group will help teach and mentor the 40 new players on the roster.
2. Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are healthy.
L.A.'s three foundational players all finished last season on injured reserve, missing a combined 22 games in 2022.
As a team, Los Angeles finished second-worst in the NFL in Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost metric, which measures injuries to starters and important situational players. Only the Denver Broncos were worse.
The year before, during L.A.'s Super Bowl run, the Rams finished No. 5 in this statistic. So, there should be some regression to the mean in 2023.
And while Donald (32 years old), Stafford (35) and Kupp (30) may all be on the back nine of their careers, if they can play to the back of their trading cards and help get the most out of L.A.'s young roster, the Rams could certainly surprise some teams this season.
The trio plays three of the most important positions on the field and if healthy should have a significant impact for the Rams on a weekly basis.
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3. The NFC West is no longer the best division in the league.
Two seasons ago, the NFC West had three teams make the playoffs, with the Rams and San Francisco 49ers meeting in the NFC Championship Game at SoFi Stadium.
But much has changed since then. Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson are no longer in the division. Kyler Murray is recovering from ACL knee surgery. And the NFC East has an argument for the best division in football, with three teams making the postseason last year and the Philadelphia Eagles reaching the Super Bowl.
L.A. finished 3-9 in the NFC and 1-5 in the NFC West last season. Despite facing the ninth-toughest strength of schedule with an opponent winning percentage at .533, the 2023 Rams should win a couple more games and possibly compete for a wild-card spot if everything goes as planned for McVay.
"What we're trying to do is build a really good football team here and that takes work," Stafford told reporters during offseason work. "Whether people think it's going to happen or not doesn't matter to us. Just because people said we should win the Super Bowl two years ago didn't mean we won it. We put the work in and executed. So that's the mindset that we're taking."
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.