Three keys for C.J. Stroud, Texans to upset Browns, advance in playoffs
The Texans' shocking season will enter its next chapter this weekend.
The AFC South champion, Houston hosts Cleveland in the 4-5 matchup of the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday at NRG Stadium.
Regardless of the result, this Texans season will be considered a massive success. After three straight seasons of four wins or fewer, Houston won 10 games in 2023 with first-year coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud leading the way.
But the Texans now have an opportunity to go on a run.
Saturday will mark the second time that the Texans and Browns have faced off this season, with Cleveland winning the first matchup on Christmas Eve 36-22. But Houston was without Stroud, who was sidelined with a concussion.
The Texans haven't won a playoff game since 2019, the last time the franchise was in the postseason.
Here are three keys to success for the Texans:
Protect Stroud
If Houston's pass protection holds up, it of course gives Stroud a greater chance of success.
That's easier said than done, though.
Superstar defensive end Myles Garrett leads a Browns pass rush that registered a 41.2% pressure rate during the regular season, second-highest in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. A heavily pressured Stroud helps a Cleveland defense that is elite in the secondary, too, increasing the chances for takeaways. The Browns rank first in completion rate allowed (57.4%) and EPA per dropback allowed (-0.32), per NGS, and fifth in takeaways (28).
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Houston has multiple offensive linemen on injured reserve, most notably standout right tackle Tytus Howard (who played left guard this season). But of the healthy O-linemen, all have practiced this week. The one lineman on the injury report, center Michael Deiter, does not have an injury designation for Saturday.
The Texans allowed a 37.1% pressure rate in the regular season, 22nd in the NFL.
Defensive line getting healthy
Rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was inactive for the first Browns game. Sack leader Jonathan Greenard, who tied for 10th in the league with 12.5 sacks, suffered an ankle injury three snaps into the contest and did not return. Browns quarterback Joe Flacco, unencumbered by the pass rush, proceeded to gash the Texans for 368 yards and three touchdowns. Houston failed to record a sack.
For the Texans to win the rematch, they need to generate pressure against Flacco, who has enjoyed a renaissance season. The good news is that Anderson and Greenard both have a chance to play — they're both listed as questionable. Greenard has missed the last two games. Anderson has played the last two games, albeit on a snap count.
Houston's other starting defensive linemen, Maliek Collins (hip) and Sheldon Rankins (shoulder), are also questionable.
Ryans has said multiple times how the D-line sets the tone for the entire defense. As a team, the Texans' 40.6% pressure rate ranks fourth in the NFL, according to NGS.
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Limit explosive plays
Explosive plays by their opponents have been an Achilles' heel for the Texans all season, an issue exacerbated when the pass rush has been lackluster. They've allowed 60 explosive receptions (at least 20 yards), sixth-worst in the league, according to Sportradar. Since Week 12, they've allowed 28 explosive receptions, the third-most of any team in that span.
That got Houston in trouble in Week 16 vs. Cleveland. Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper erupted for a single-game franchise record 265 yards on 11 catches, including a 53-yard reception on the Browns' first play from scrimmage.
The Texans have gotten strong play from their starting cornerbacks, former No. 3 overall pick Derek Stingley Jr. and veteran Steven Nelson, all season. Stingley, the AFC Defensive Player of the Month, had five interceptions in the final eight games of the regular season.
Houston is most vulnerable at safety. With Jimmie Ward out for the season, backup DeAndre Houston-Carson — signed off the Ravens' practice squad in October — has been a starter the past two weeks alongside Jalen Pitre, who has had an up and down second season.
Why the Texans can go on a run
Houston's offensive line isn't at full strength. There are still some health concerns on the defensive line. Ryans is a first-year head coach. And this is a team not accustomed to playing in meaningful games.
The Texans have all of that going against them. But they also have one big thing going for them: Stroud has shown that he's already one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and that he can put the team on his back.
He did so against the Bucs in Week 9, throwing for 470 yards — an NFL single-game record for a rookie — and five touchdowns, plus the game-winner in the final seconds. He did so against the Bengals the next week, leading a game-winning drive to beat Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. He did so against the divisional-rival Jaguars in Week 3, guiding Houston to a 20-point win despite four missing starters on the offensive line. And he did so in the regular-season finale, posting a 134.1 quarterback rating in a de facto playoff game against the division-rival Colts to send the Texans to the playoffs for the first time in four years.
For Houston to beat Cleveland on Saturday, and to have a chance beyond that, Stroud is going to have to be at his best.
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.