Talk the Line: Early NFL divisional round thoughts; Packers-49ers spread low
Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.
Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.
So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs!
After scoring 45 points last weekend, the Houston Texans are now catching 9.5?! I picked Houston last week on FOX, and I’m even scared to go back to the well.
Baltimore is rested and ready for this one, and temperatures in the low 20s with 15-mile-per-hour winds will be an issue for C.J. Stroud and Houston’s passing attack.
The Texans are a hot football team with a quarterback who doesn’t seem intimidated by the moment.
It's worth noting that Lamar Jackson has been a favorite of 7.5 in his career nine times. His Ravens have only covered once in those nine games.
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The Packers come off a blowout of the Cowboys as 7.5-point underdogs and now go on the road for the fourth time in five weeks to face a rested San Francisco 49ers team.
I thought this number would open at 10 when you consider the fact that Green Bay’s defense was on the field for 89 plays. Now, they have a short week with the Saturday night game.
This line is too low. Hop on the 49ers now.
This number is already on the move because it opened too low.
The Packers are an awesome story, but this well-rested Niners team is a different beast than the choking Cowboys. Green Bay's defense is still below average, and the Niners will score a ton of points.
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Buccaneers @ Lions (-6)
This is the right number for how these teams are power ranked, but it’s a tad high for my football brain.
The Lions' pass defense is not good, and the Bucs will be able to keep it close or backdoor cover with their passing attack.
The Tampa Bay defense will force Jared Goff into making a dumb play, which he mostly avoided against the Los Angeles Rams.
This may float up a bit to 6.5 in the next day or so, but I truly believe the appetite to bet on Tampa Bay’s aggressive defense will grow later in the week. Don’t be surprised if we see some 5.5s closer to kickoff.
Also, Detroit just gave up 357 passing yards against the Rams and escaped with a win. Good luck against Mike Evans, Chris Godwin & Co.
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This number opened briefly at 2.5 and was quickly hit to move to Buffalo as a 3-point favorite. Money immediately came in on the Chiefs getting three points, and now has settled at 2.5.
I’d imagine it gets bounced back and forth between 2.5 and 3 until kickoff.
I lean towards Buffalo, but this line won’t change much. Expect to see some sharp groups fight on Buffalo -2.5 and Kansas City +3.
My advice is simple: if you like the Bills, lay the 2.5, and if you’re on the Chiefs, take the full field goal when available. Please get the best number.
The Chiefs have a two-day rest advantage because Buffalo’s game was pushed back a day. The Bills also suffered some tough injuries at linebacker and in the secondary against the Steelers.
Some of that is baked into the line (the look ahead was 3), but it feels like the Bills’ six-game hot streak has been a little overdone in hindsight, with the Dallas and Miami wins looking less impressive.
Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.