Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 13 odds
Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week's NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we've got you covered.
Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.
So, without further ado, let's jump into their analysis for Week 13, starting with the best game on the slate, featuring the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Philadelphia Eagles on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App.
Jason McIntyre: Too Low
Philadelphia isn't favored to win despite having the best record in the NFL. Per FOX Sports Research, the Eagles are the first 10-1 team to be a home underdog in the Super Bowl era. What gives? There's a reason for that.
Philly will be exhausted after the Monday Night thriller in K.C., followed by an overtime win over the Buffalo Bills, where the defense was on the field for 92 plays.
Conversely, the 49ers are coming off extra rest, having played on Thanksgiving, and there will be extra motivation after losing the NFC title game last year.
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
This number is just right. As long as Brandon Staley coaches the Chargers, it will never just be a regular drama-free game.
The Chargers are far better than the Patriots at every position on the field, especially at quarterback, but are just not trustworthy.
Geoff Schwartz: Too Low
You can never wager on a game based solely on the results of one weekend.
What would this line be if the Lions had beaten the Packers? It's probably near 6, and you’d be tempted to lay it with how poorly the Saints have played this season.
The Saints have beaten the Titans, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Bears. They stink.
The Lions are good.
Sam Panayotovich: Too high
The Cardinals are certainly feistier with Kyler Murray. There will probably be an appetite for the wise guys later in the week if this number hits 6. Pittsburgh’s offense is nothing special.
Jason McIntyre: Just Right
Desmond Ridder has turned into a pumpkin on the road a few times, but the Jets are a disaster offensively, as Tim Boyle was worse than Zach Wilson last week. Yes, you read that right.
The Jets' run defense has been leaky, and expect another 40+ run game from the Falcons.
Geoff Schwartz: Too high
The Titans as home underdogs are a favorite wager for sharps because Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is the best coach against the spread as a home underdog (12-5 ATS as a home underdog in the regular season).
You should grab the Titans now, getting two points, because I don’t think it will be there on Sunday.
These teams are close enough for a pick 'em spread by kickoff.
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Dolphins (-9.5) @ Commanders
Geoff Schwartz: Just right
What else is this line supposed to be?
The Dolphins have shown the ability to kick butt against bad teams, and the Commanders certainly fit the bill.
Washington just fired their defensive coordinator after getting rid of their best pass rushers. Reports are Ron Rivera is out after this season as well.
The Commanders could be dead men walking on Sunday.
Jason McIntyre: Too Low
The Broncos are riding high on a five-game win streak, but a deeper dive reveals that outside of the win over Patrick Mahomes, the wins have been a lot of luck (turnover margin) and come against bad QBs.
Panthers @ Buccaneers (-5.5)
Jason McIntyre: Too High
While the Panthers are a league-worst 1-8-2 ATS and haven’t covered a spread (or topped 13 points) in the last four games, you have to buy the "coach firing bump" and resist the urge to lay this many points with Baker Mayfield.
Sam Panayotovich: Too low
Respected players already laid 7 and 7.5 on the open. And with the way the public bets Dallas on gameday, I wouldn’t be surprised if this line gets to 9.5 or 10 by Thursday.
Jason McIntyre: Too Low
The mightly Browns defense — which has struggled on the road — is walking wounded, and now they might be down to a third-string QB, or maybe even Joe Flacco.
The return of Kyren Williams has added a huge dimension to the Rams offense.
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
Good line. I could make a case for either side, but I would probably take 7 with the home dog if the market creeps just up a little higher.
Sam Panayotovich: Just right
The Bengals are a completely different team without Joe Burrow, but I’m still not laying the points. I won’t have a single cent on this game and won’t consider it in my contests.
Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.