Super Bowl LVIII scheme showdown: Kyle Shanahan vs. Steve Spagnuolo
Two NFL masterminds match wits on Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs face off in Super Bowl LVIII.
San Francisco head coach and offensive guru Kyle Shanahan will try to matriculate the football down the field against Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his stingy unit.
In the history of the two matching up, Shanahan is 5-3 as an offensive coordinator or a head coach calling plays against teams led by Spagnuolo as a head coach or defensive coordinator.
Shanahan's offenses averaged 23.4 points in those games, compared to an overall average of 25.1 points per game since he took over the 49ers. Shanahan is the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a team averaging at least 25 points per game who has not won a championship (minimum 100 games).
Shanahan said it's important not to worry about what Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, another offensive guru, is doing on his side of the ball.
"If you try to square up against a creative playcaller, you're going to mess it up for your whole team," Shanahan said during Super Bowl Opening Night. "It's about studying what they do and trying to give your players the best look possible.
"If you're trying to be creative just to be creative, it's going to end up looking pretty dumb."
Shanahan's 49ers have lost their past two games against the Chiefs, a 44-23 regular-season loss last season and a 31-20 defeat in Super Bowl LIV. The latter no doubt hurt much more, especially since the Niners had a 20-10 lead headed into the fourth quarter.
Formerly an offensive juggernaut with two-time MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have surprisingly been led by their defense this year. And in the postseason, they're allowing just 13.7 points per game — the fewest allowed by any team during a three-game postseason run in the past decade. The last team to allow fewer points per game during a three-game postseason run was the 2013 Seattle Seahawks.
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Like all defenses, the key for the Chiefs has been creating consistent pressure on the quarterback with their front seven and limiting explosive plays. Spagnuolo's group had the fifth-highest blitz rate in the NFL during the regular season (37.5%). Kansas City also finished with the second-most sacks per game (3.4) and the second-most quarterback hits per game (7.4).
However, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy was one of the most efficient and effective passers against the blitz this season. Purdy completed 69.2% of his passes for 1,488 yards, with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions for a 132.3 passer rating when facing five or more rushers during the regular season.
"This is not a quarterback that is managing and all of those tags they put on him," Spagnuolo said about Purdy. "He's for real. He makes all the throws and is really, really smart. And then what I didn't know, because I hadn't seen enough of it, is how athletic he is.
"When you cover everything, he can find a pass-rush lane and take off and get positive yards. That puts a lot of strain on us defensively. I'm thoroughly impressed with him."
Along with Purdy's ability to create plays outside the pocket, Spagnuolo will have to figure out how to deal with all of San Francisco's shifts and motions pre-snap. According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers ran a shift or motion on 79.2% of their plays during the regular season, No. 2 in the NFL.
Spagnuolo also needs to limit the 49ers' ability to create explosive plays through the dropback and play-action game. Niners receivers are especially adept at YAC, finishing with 2,280 yards after the catch, No. 4 in the league. The Chiefs, however, allowed only 1,739 yards after the catch during the regular season, fourth-best in the NFL during the regular season.
Kansas City has been one of the most consistent tackling teams and appears built to stop talented San Francisco playmakers such as Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey in open space. But the most important question for Spagnuolo is: Can his defense hold up against the run, and will he have to load the box to slow down McCaffrey or play more two-high safety looks to better defend the pass?
The Chiefs allowed 4.5 rushing yards per play (No. 24 in the NFL) during the regular season. Like New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick successfully deployed in Super Bowl LIII, holding the Los Angeles Rams to three points, Spagnuolo could opt to use a 6-1 defensive front to limit San Francisco's running game.
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However, the 49ers have more weapons on offense than the Rams did and are better equipped to handle a heavy defensive front. According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers faced a stacked box (eight or more defenders on the line of scrimmage) a league-high 23% of the time and still ran for an NFL-high 695 yards and 16 touchdowns, averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
"It's not about coming up with the perfect play ever," Shanahan said about the matchup. "It's about contingencies. It's about what's good against this right look that you prepared your team for? But that hits one out of five.
"When you don't get that, how does No. 2 look? How's No. 3 look? What's the quarterback's answer versus the blitz? How do you keep the chains moving despite not getting that right look?"
Shanahan vs. Spagnuolo figures to be the game within the game Sunday. Who wins that battle could determine if Shanahan wins his first ring or if Spagnuolo takes home his fourth as a defensive coordinator.
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.