Super Bowl 51: The play of the game was the overtime coin toss

Feb 4, 2017; Houston, TX USA; General overall view of New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons helmets and NFL Wilson official Duke Super Bowl LI logo football at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl LI was super, but decided by an archaic system that needs a desperate change.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: A major NFL playoff game was decided by a coin toss.

Until last night, no Super Bowl had ever gone to overtime.

Casual NFL fans may have been grateful for an exciting overtime finish, but hopefully after the excitement fades there will be momentum for the NFL to fix their shoulder-shrug overtime rules.

The biggest game of the year, the culmination of 332 games can’t end on a random flick of a coin.

All the major sports have built their overtime rules to ensure equal possession.

The NBA plays an additional five minutes starting with a jump ball. Major League Baseball goes to extra innings and equal possession. Soccer goes to extra time and then penalty kicks. The NHL playoffs are sudden death but start with an equal opportunity face-off.

The NFL flips a coin.

And the winner of that coin toss is heavily favored to win.

So, what’s to be done?

Let’s take a closer look.

Feb 5, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots players meet for a coin toss to decide possession during overtime during Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium. Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL has often tweaked the overtime rules, usually in the direction of doing the absolute least to upset TV partners fearing longer games.

The overtime rules were last changed following the

2010 playoffs.

In Brett Favre’s final playoff game the Minnesota Vikings lost to the New Orleans Saints on an overtime field goal. The Saints won the coin toss and never gave up the ball.

The NFL changed the OT rules so the team that won the coin toss couldn’t end the game with a field goal, but could still win on the first possession with a touchdown.

The change has done nothing to alter the disproportionate benefit of winning a 50/50 game of chance called the coin toss.

Since that rules-tweak, six playoff games have gone into overtime, and all six were won by the team who correctly guessed heads or tails. Yes, this is a small sample size but I’m not considering regular-season games since teams clearly play with a much different strategy in overtimes that can end a season.

Four of the games ended on a walk-off, first possession touchdown. The Packers were on the receiving end of two of these losses.

The other two of six were decided by a field goal, and though both teams did get a chance to touch the ball, the coin toss winner is still 6-for-6 and you’ve got to consider how much momentum is randomly, unequally assigned to the winner of a random game of chance.

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

And in contrast, how much momentum does the defense lose when it takes the field knowing the statistics heavily favor the coin-toss winner?

At the time of the most recent OT rules-change studies suggested the team that won the coin toss went on to win 61 percent of the time, but I suspect that number has increased as changes to the kick-off ball placement has resulted in improved field position for the receiving team.

A team’s chances in overtime are so influenced by the 50/50 coin toss that after last season’s Packers’ OT loss to the Cardinals, FiveThirtyEight did a statistical analysis suggesting Mike McCarthy should have gone for two and the win in regulation.

The data suggested the Packers had a 48.8 percent chance of making the two-point conversion, but only a 40.9 percent chance of making the extra-point kick, correctly guessing the coin toss, and winning as the away team.

Go for two: Equals estimated 2-point success rate: 48.8 percent.

Send to overtime: Chances of making extra point multiplied by chances of winning in overtime. 95.9 percent * 42.6 percent = 40.9 percent.

Next: Time to Make These OT Changes

Feb 5, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; New England Patriots running back James White (28) runs for the game winning touchdown Atlanta Falcons during over time during Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The overtime rule needs to be changed, at least in the playoffs, to guarantee both teams one possession.

Feb 6, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick speaks during the Super Bowl LI winning team press conference flanked by the Lombardi Trophy at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The coin toss should be eliminated. I’ve always liked the idea of giving the first possession to the visitor. The home team had the home-field advantage for four quarters and still couldn’t win. Knowing the visitor would start OT with the ball would affect both teams’ end-of-regulation strategy.

The visitor-gets-the-ball rule would need to be adjusted for the Super Bowl since the home-visitor designations are meaningless. To keep with the spirit of giving the underdog visitor the ball, I might suggest giving the ball to the lower seed.

Or we could continue to decide games with the symbolic indifference of a let’s-get-this-over-with 50/50 coin toss.

If the NFL is in such a hurry to end games to please TV partners, might I suggest we pull names from a hat, or play spin the bottle?

The winner would still be left to chance but at least TV partners could monetize the official overtime hat or bottle sponsorships.