Super Bowl 2022 odds: How to bet Rams-Bengals
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Super Bowl is finally here, with the Los Angeles Rams taking on the Cincinnati Bengals for all the marbles. We will tweak this week's NFL picks column for the season's final installment because that is how excited I am for the Big Game!
Let me start by saying I'm sitting on the Rams +1300 to win the Super Bowl from back in January 2021 when I wrote this column on the heels of the Matthew Stafford trade. Hence, why I'll be wearing a Cooper Kupp jersey Sunday and openly rooting for my wallet. But to make the game even more exciting, I'll also have plenty of prop bets in play for the final game of the season.
Let's have some fun with the column this week. Imagine we're giving you a $1000 bankroll. With this (fictitious) $1000, I'm going to show you exactly where to place your money.
So, let's jump into it with my best bets. Here are my favorite Super Bowl wagers — spread, total and props — with odds via FOX Bet.
PICK: Los Angeles Rams moneyline (-200 at FOX Bet) — $200 to win $100.
The Rams come out on top in every game script I go through. Sure, Joe Burrow could play the latest Game of His Life and will the Bengals to victory, but he hasn't faced a defense this good all season. The Rams will be the first Top 5 defense Burrow has met, and his offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Rams' front.
Now, is a Matthew Stafford meltdown possible? Certainly, but he's been a different quarterback in the postseason. He's much more secure with the ball and leaning heavily on one of the best route runners in the NFL, Cooper Kupp, whenever they need a big play. Rams ML was -188 after they advanced to the Super Bowl and has gotten as high as -212.
To win this bet, the Rams just have to win the game.
PICK: Alternative spread: Rams -10 (+200 at FOX Bet) — $50 to win $100
I've been saying it for two weeks: This feels like the Rams roll to victory, somewhere in the 27-10 range. The Rams can beat the Bengals multiple ways.
Cincinnati really needs Burrow to put together an otherworldly performance to win the Super Bowl. The Bengals' defense cannot carry them to victory, while the Rams have the better run and pass defense.
Trust the season-long metrics, not just the hot three-week Bengals joyride. Despite this hot stretch by Cincinnati, the Bengals have been out-gained in each playoff game and had fewer net yards per play.
To win this bet, the Rams have to win by more than 10 points.
PICK: Under 48.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet — $100 to win $90
If you want to fade the narrative, you're doing two things: going against Super Joe Burrow and betting the under of the over/under (O/U). You're not getting the best number, as the total opened at 50.5 and has come down after professional money hit the market. But, I still like it.
Between coaches' familiarity (Zac Taylor worked under Sean McVay), first-time coach-QB combos in the Super Bowl for both teams, and a coach who wants to run the ball in McVay, this feels like a very low scoring game.
Also, just for fun, if you look at what the media says about the game, they're skewing very heavily to a shootout. I'll take the other side.
To win this bet, both teams have to score under 48.5 points combined.
PICK: Matthew Stafford to score 2 plus touchdowns (+5000 at FOX Bet) — $50 to win $2500
How's this? Stafford had zero rushing touchdowns in the regular season. In 17 games, he didn't rush for a TD. But in three playoff games, he's rushed for two. I don't like betting on quarterback rush yards because of kneel-downs late in the game. I do, however, like the idea of a TD on a Stafford QB sneak then the potential of another Philly special — West Coast edition!
Remember, Cam Akers had a fumble inside the 5-yard line vs. Tampa Bay, so it's not crazy to think McVay just goes for the QB sneak against a Bengals defensive front that isn't as stout as the Bucs or 49ers. Another nugget to keep in mind is Akers only had one carry inside the 10 vs. San Francisco.
We've seen Odell Beckham uncork a pass (Arizona playoff game). Dare to dream. But at these odds, this bet is worth the sprinkle.
To win this bet, Stafford would need to score two or more non-passing touchdowns.
PICK: Cam Akers 1st TD (+625 at FOX Bet) — $25 to win $156
For all the Cam Akers talk over the last month, here's a fun stat: He has 0 touchdowns this season. As explosive as he has looked at times, Akers has just one carry of 15 yards. Still, he's powerful and explosive, and I can't help but remember Josh Jacobs averaged 6.4 yards per carry on 13 carries vs. the Bengals, the Titans rushing for 140 yards, and the Chiefs' 139 yards on the ground.
Akers will lead the way, supplemented by Sony Michel and maybe even Darrell Henderson Jr.
To win this bet, Akers would have to score the first touchdown of the game.
PICK: Joe Burrow Over .5 interceptions (-157 at FOX Bet) — $250 to win $159
Burrow was fantastic down the stretch, propelling the Bengals to the playoffs with 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the final four games. But water finds its level, and Burrow has been intercepted twice in the playoffs.
The narrative around Burrow right now is that he should have gotten MVP votes, he reminds people of Tom Brady and could be the future face of the NFL. But, in reality, Burrow threw 16 INTs, the third-most in the NFL. Yes, Stafford led the league with 18, but that was one more game, and he had 72 more attempts.
When trailing against the Chiefs, Burrow made some risky throws and was fortunate only to get one picked off. Expect the signal-caller to be under more pressure against this aggressive Rams pass rush.
To win this bet, Burrow would have to throw an interception.
PICK: Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham: 50+ receiving yards each (+100 at FOX Bet) — $28 to win $56
This bet falls into the "square" bucket of something the masses will bet.
Kupp seems like the safe leg here. The problem with this wager is that Chase can be boom or bust. Chase has over 50 yards in every playoff game, but he did have a four-game stretch bridging October and November when he had four straight games under 50 yards.
Beckham also isn't the big-play target he used to be and could easily have a 5-catch game for 45 yards and a touchdown, which looks good and helps the Rams win but doesn't help you cash your bet.
Still, at +100, I'll risk a small amount on this bet.
To win this bet, Chase, Kupp and Beckham would each need to have more than 50 yards receiving.
PICK: Cooper Kupp longest reception Over 28.5 yards (-147 at FOX Bet) — $147 to win $100
I will avoid Kupp receptions and yards because they're all inflated. The books know everyone who has money on the game wants to bet Cooper Kupp over everything.
This bet I do like, so I'd take it at over 29 with less juice. Will the Bengals really stay in the shell defense they used in the second half against the Chiefs? This defense has given up big plays all season (25th in explosive pass defense), and Kupp has had a play longer than 28.5 yards in 15 of his 20 games so far this season.
Also, he led the NFL in YAC, and can easily take a 12-yard slant for 30.
To win this bet, Kupp would need to have a reception longer than 28 yards.
PICK: Rams to win, Rams six-plus sacks, Cooper Kupp 100 plus receiving yards & 1 plus touchdown: (+500 at FOX Bet) — $50 to win $250
If you think we're in store for a supremely chalky Super Bowl with the Rams controlling the line of scrimmage, Cooper Kupp dominating the zone and the Rams capturing the trophy, this bet is for you.
To win this bet, the Rams would have to win, Los Angeles would need six or more sacks and Kupp would need over 100 receiving yards and one or more touchdowns.
PICK: Tee Higgins to win MVP (+4000 at FOX Bet) — $50 to win $2000
Yes, I like the Rams to win the game. But I can't see value in any of their four defensive stars because it's anyone's guess who gets the sacks or splash plays. Fine, Leonard Floyd is only very, very good, but you get what I mean.
On the off chance that the Bengals are in this game, it'll have to be because of a big game from one of the receivers, and Higgins isn't a bad option. He's dangerous over the middle, and I expect the Rams not to let Chase beat them.
Higgins could easily have an 11-125-1 game, which could be MVP-worthy if it's a low-scoring affair.
To win this bet, Higgins would have to win Super Bowl MVP
PICK: Evan McPherson to win MVP (+12000 at FOX Bet) — $50 to win $6050
Part of me tossed this prop in because I wanted to type "Evan McPherless," which is the coolest nickname for a kicker since "The Money Badger."
If this ends up being a 12-10-type slobber-knocker where no offensive player emerges as a star, and McPherson can bang in two field goals from deep, including a game-winner, a kicker could steal the MVP.
Yes, this is a Hail Mary, but at these odds, you always shoot your shot.
To win this bet, McPherson would have to win Super Bowl MVP.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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