Super Bowl 2022 odds: How much does Rams' home-field advantage matter?
Prior to 2020, never in NFL history had a team played for the Super Bowl on its home field. Then in Super Bowl LV, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed that by playing at home on Raymond James Field. The Bucs went on to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9. From a betting perspective, the home squad won straight up (SU) and covered the number against the spread (ATS).
The Los Angeles Rams are hoping to follow in Tampa Bay's footsteps against the Cincinnati Bengals as they host Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., on Feb. 13.
From a gambling angle, it seems like a no-brainer that a team would rather play at home than on the road. For decades, when it comes to betting, oddsmakers believed NFL home-field advantage was worth roughly three points. In layman's terms: two teams that are considered equal on a neutral field would be 3-point favorites at their respective home stadiums. That number has gotten smaller and smaller through the years but usually presents an advantage, no matter how small the number.
Nevertheless, this is not a typical home team. For starters, the Rams have only been playing at this stadium since the 2020 NFL season. And yes, while it is home-field, they also share it with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Secondly, as we saw against the San Francisco 49ers in both Week 18 and in the Conference Championship, SoFi can, at times, feel like a road crowd for these Rams. S.F. fans seemingly outnumbered home fans even though the Rams were playing for a Super Bowl berth!
While Los Angeles came through in spectacular fashion — erasing a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter — the question remains; just how valuable is the home-field for this season's NFC winner?
We asked FOX Bet Trader Steven Hemke, for his thoughts:
"Super Bowl tickets are distributed differently for the Super Bowl. We don’t expect much if any home-field advantage as far as Rams fans in the actual seats. Usually, 35% are split between the two teams and the rest of the teams in the league also receive a percentage.
"With that being said, similar to the NFC title game, we can expect both teams to have a pretty even split with maybe slightly more Rams fans due to proximity," the oddsmaker explained.
And how does that impact the point spread?
"As far as the spread, maybe -1 or -1.5 in this case due to familiarities and travel advantages the Rams will enjoy," Hemke said.
So there you have it. The spread might be worth up to -1.5 points for the Rams playing with home field. If the two teams are considered evenly matched, this may account for the current line of Rams -4. However, it is worth noting that although the Rams are 7-3 SU at home this season, Los Angeles is only 5-5 ATS. Furthermore, the Bengals have been relaxing on the road like they are at an Airbnb, going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS away from home this season.
So which team are you throwing a few bucks on to win the Lombardi Trophy in Los Angeles? Whenever you are ready, get in on the betting action right now at FOX Bet!
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