Super Bowl 2022 odds: 6 rules for betting on Rams-Bengals

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

And then there were two. The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams will face off in the Super Bowl in less than two weeks at SoFi Stadium.

Of course, you want to get money down on the game, be it the side, total or the massive prop market; that's why you are here. And if you've been reading this space for the last few seasons, you know the drill. We look for an edge or an inefficiency in the market and exploit it. Unfortunately, if you're seeking Gatorade-bath color prop bets, you've come to the wrong place.

So, without further ado, I give you my six rules for betting on the Super Bowl.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6:30 p.m. ET Feb. 13, NBC)

1. Be selective with your bets

A professional gambler once joked to me that betting the Super Bowl is like partying on New Year's Eve. This is because gamblers tend to go wild on the Big Game. Just remember, the NFL market gets more efficient as the playoffs go on, and with only one game to line, don't expect much, if any, movement on the spread leading up to the game.

The prop market is where you can find an edge, but wading into the prop market that's as big as the Grand Canyon can be daunting and dangerous. Either way, be selective.

2. Fade the media narratives

I write about this topic throughout the regular season, but it applies even more to the biggest sports gambling event of the year.

Remember last year's narrative? Everyone was saying the Buccaneers were lucky to be in the Super Bowl after three straight road wins, and the Chiefs were going back-to-back because Patrick Mahomes was unstoppable. What happened next? Bucs 31, Chiefs 9.

And who can forget the two offensive juggernauts meeting a few years ago — Rams vs. Patriots? The total on that particular game was a staggering 57.5. The result? The Patriots won, 13-3.

The year before that game, the Patriots' defense faced Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles in an "obvious" mismatch. We all remember what happened next, as St. Nick passed for 343 yards and three touchdowns, while also catching the Philly Special which resulted in a colossal upset.

We're only a few days into Super Bowl hype, and you can already tell that Joe Burrow's greatness — all he does is win big games! — is going to be the narrative to fade.

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3. If you're betting on stars in the prop market, just know everyone else is, too

Want to bet Ja'Marr Chase or Cooper Kupp props? Just know the numbers will be inflated because casual gamblers — some that may not bet all season — will be doing the same.

Chase is a rookie who has had a few monster games this season and should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. But he'll likely be matched up with Jalen Ramsey, so I'm not expecting much from Chase. Instead, I'd look closer at Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd, two receivers who work the middle of the field plenty — an area the Rams have struggled defensively.

Kupp is tougher to avoid, as he has scored in every playoff game, and his numbers continue to climb with each outing. Stafford trusts him more than anyone. But, against the Bengals' zone defense — which flummoxed Mahomes in the second half of the AFC Championship game — two Rams pass-catchers I'll be looking at are tight end Kendall Blanton and Odell Beckham. Both should stack receptions and yards against the soft belly of that zone.

Fun fact: During the regular season and playoffs, Beckham did most of his damage in the middle of the field between 0-20 yards. Look out for a big game from him.

4. Teams can get "hot" in the playoffs, but that's a tiny sample size

The Bengals knocked off the top-seeded Titans on the road, then stunned the heavily-favored Chiefs in Arrowhead. The public is going to gravitate toward the Burrow storyline. Reality: The Titans threw three interceptions to lose at home, and the Chiefs beat themselves in the second half, blowing an 18-point lead.

If you look at the season-long metrics, the Bengals were a slightly above average team this season, as they finished the year 17th in overall efficiency per Football Outsiders.

Two other efficiency systems had the Bengals ranked 12th and 13th. On the flip side, the Rams rank in the top five in all three metrics.

Cincinnati lost in Chicago, at the Jets, got hammered at home by the Browns and by the Chargers, too. Burrow threw eight of his 14 interceptions in those four losses. None of those teams made the playoffs. On the other hand, the Rams didn't lose to a team that missed the playoffs this season. Things that make you go "hmm."

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5. Live Betting is smarter — and more lucrative — than betting on pre-kickoff wagers

Are you wagering on the coin toss? Fun. Tails never fails, baby. Betting on the length of the National Anthem? Have fun with it! I enjoy these entertaining bets, and they are great for parties. Perhaps we even get more video leaks from rehearsal that offer us an edge. But it's usually much more advantageous to keep most of your powder dry for the actual game when you can live bet the side or total.

We will know early if the coaching familiarity — Zac Taylor was a Sean McVay assistant for two years with the Rams — leads down the path of high scoring or a rock fight.

6. The Super Bowl MVP market is one you can succeed at

Unlike the season-long MVP award, which almost exclusively goes to quarterbacks, the MVP of the Super Bowl is much more spread out. In the last 20 Super Bowls, only 13 have been quarterbacks. — five of those were claimed by Tom Brady.

We've seen four different wide receivers win it — Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Julian Edelman — and three defenders — cornerback Dexter Jackson, linebacker Malcolm Smith, and edge rusher Von Miller. We can toss running backs out, and I'm not considering Burrow or Stafford from a value standpoint.

With all of that being said, this leads me to four defenders, if you like the Rams to win: Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd or Jalen Ramsey.

I'm projecting a low-scoring game, and the total has already taken under money. The Bengals' offensive line gave up the most sacks in the regular season (51), and the line ranks 30th in pass block win rate. Burrow was sacked nine times by Tennessee, and this could be a 5-6 sack game.

Keep in mind, a defensive tackle hasn't won the award in over 40 years, but if the Rams' front causes havoc, lookout.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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