Sound Smart: 8 Observations from NFL Week 18

You saw the Denver Broncos lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC — just one day after the Seattle Seahawks did the same in the NFC. You saw the strange way the Carolina Panthers made their way into the postseason with a season-saving win from the … Atlanta Falcons!(?) You saw the Pittsburgh Steelers eke out a dramatic comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens.

So let's try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we witnessed in Week 18. This is "Sound Smart," where we prepare you for Monday morning with eight observations from the final weekend of the regular season. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 18 action.

1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM WEEK 18, IT’S THAT …. 

Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford are the biggest difference-makers in a wide-open playoff field.

If you can’t see the glaring weakness for each and every playoff team, you’re not looking hard enough. I see 14 teams with 14 Achilles heels. And that’s why I think Allen and Stafford will be the difference-makers in the postseason.

Allen knows as well as anyone how much the playoff heartbreak can ruin the offseason months. That’ll matter when he sees some of these other teams that might simply be happy to be in the postseason. Allen also knows that the only teams to bounce him — Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs and Joe Burrow’s Bengals — aren't in the picture. That’s a motivator. Allen might never have a better chance to win Buffalo’s first Super Bowl. He’s been playing with desire all season, in part because the passing offense hasn’t been there for him like it has in past years. But that could work to his strength — which has been unparalleled desperation this year.

And for Stafford, he’s been there and done that. We saw how much that helped Tom Brady in the later stage of his career, with a rare blend of experience, confidence and talent. The Rams might have let the No. 1 seed slip between their fingers. But they’re still the NFL’s most complete team in my eyes.

At least one of these (wild-card) teams is going to make the Super Bowl. Maybe both.

2. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY

Part 1: Who’s winning MVP? Coach of the Year?

For MVP, it’s Matthew Stafford against Drake Maye. Maye has been more valuable when it comes to this season (when measured in just about every advanced and per-play metric), but Stafford has more touchdowns and has the legacy element — where voters might give this to him as another crowning achievement for his impressive career. I lean Maye. I have no idea if I’m in the majority or minority.

For COY, it is seemingly between Mike Macdonald or Mike Vrabel, according to Vegas odds. Despite swapping QBs in the offseason, Macdonald finished atop the NFC. But the Seahawks were a 10-win team. And voters sometimes want to see more obvious metrics of improvement — or a longer list of adversities (like key injuries). So that’s why Vrabel has a good case, turning the Patriots around from four wins and bringing Maye with him. But if we’re playing that game, I like Liam Coen — a distant fourth for the award in betting odds coming into this week. The Jaguars weren’t just a four-win team last year. They were …. the Jaguars. (Yuck!) But Coen has changed Trevor Lawrence and changed the culture in Jacksonville, a franchise that isn’t storied like New England. Unlike the Patriots, the Jaguars felt foundationally rotten to the core. Coen is beginning to change that. I lean his way. In that case, I know I’m in the minority.

Part 2: Panthers’ penalties 

There have been some poorly officiated games with major playoff implications, including the Lions’ loss to the Steelers in Week 16, which essentially tanked their season. But at least in that game, it boiled down to one bad call. The officials interfered with the Panthers’ chances of winning at every twist and turn in their loss to the Buccaneers. This isn’t to say it was on purpose, to be clear. But you can’t argue: The officials’ mistakes greatly influenced this game.

1. The officials failed to call an unnecessary roughness penalty from Buccaneers linebacker SirVocea Dennis for ripping the helmet off Panthers tight end Tommy Tremble.
2. The officials called defensive pass interference on Panthers safety Nick Scott when his feet clicked with Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton. Otton seemed to trip on his own feet, but they called it anyway. It put the Buccaneers within field-goal range on a drive that ended in a field goal.
3. The officials incorrectly called offensive pass interference on Tetairoa McMillan for getting off a jam within the first five yards. It reversed the Panthers’ conversion of a third-and-2 at the end of the third quarter. They failed to convert the ensuing third-and-12, and punted to close out the drive. Three different former pro defensive backs (Stephon Gilmore, Asante Samuel and Ryan Clark) took to social media to dispute the call.
4. The officials blew an inadvertent whistle on a backward pass to Rico Dowdle. After initially ruling the play an incompletion on the field, they clarified that it was a backward pass caught out of bounds for a 6-yard loss — which made zero sense because Dowdle was not out of bounds. It should have been a replay of the down because of an officiating error.

The Panthers didn’t play a spotless — or even smart — game. Bryce Young threw an egregious interception — a textbook throw that coaches teach you not to do. And then coach Dave Canales called a flea flicker in messy conditions. On the play, Dowdle slipped on the wet turf and fumbled his backward pitch, which the Bucs recovered. It was a textbook playcall that coaches will use as a reminder of how their "creativity" can sometimes get in the way of a win.

When you add up all of those crucial mistakes at crucial moments in a two-point game that could have decided the outcome of a playoff spot, you have a major problem. And because it’s the Panthers, who are a small-market team (that is below-.500), there might not be much griping outside Carolina.

Well, I’m here to do it for the Panthers. Because that was a bunch of huey. 

3. LOSER GOES HOME — AND LEAVES TOWN?

Could this be the end of the Ravens as we know them?

You might think that it’s unfitting for the Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh era to come down to a missed field goal. But remember, Harbaugh is a special teams guy. That’s where he has to hold up his end of the bargain.

This is supposed to be how QBs and coaches work in concert with one another — particularly when their strengths are in different phases of the game. Bill Belichick took care of the Patriots defense and Tom Brady took care of the offense. Josh Allen shepherds the Bills offense and Sean McDermott champions the defense. 

So it stands to reason that with Lamar taking care of the offense, Harbaugh could do the rest on special teams. With the playoffs on the line. In the AFC North title game.

But given what we’ve seen this year — and what we’ve heard — it makes perfect sense that it didn’t work out. That Tyler Loop’s kick was wide right. That the Ravens' season is over at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers.

Given the stakes of the game, it’s notable that Harbaugh (and Loop) couldn’t come through.

For the Steelers and Ravens, the question for both coaches and both quarterbacks was whether, if they lost, they’d return in their current roles for 2026. So with the Ravens’ season ending, it’s time to wonder whether that’s the end of the Ravens as we know them. The relationship between Jackson and the Ravens is fraying, per the Baltimore Sun. And it seemed — all the way up to a game-winning field-goal attempt — that victory might wash any bad taste from their mouths. But, if anything, that taste got a whole lot worse.

Baltimore might have the impossible decision: Harbaugh or Lamar?

Except that it’s not impossible. Not really. As excellent as Harbaugh has been, you pick Lamar every time.

4. EVERYONE’S AFRAID TO SAY …

The Cincinnati Bengals should part ways with coach Zac Taylor despite what Joe Burrow wants.

Yet again, the Bengals lost a bad game on Sunday. And yet again, Joe Burrow played the blues.

"I haven’t gotten that joy out of this that I used to — the joy that I got was winning," Burrow told reporters after the Browns’ upset win.

I get that he’s bummed. I get that he’s playing for the Bengals, who perennially disappoint. I get that he’s pressuring ownership to step up and make changes. I get that what he’s really trying to say is: Open up that wallet, Mike Brown.

I side with Burrow in all of that.

But I also read the reports that Burrow supports Taylor sticking around as head coach. And that, I can’t abide. 

To me, that’s Burrow being just as bad as his team's owner — keeping things the same and expecting different results. Burrow can’t mope and mope and mope about the downfall of this team — yet again — without demanding widespread change across the organization. Burrow has to let Taylor go. Their coach isn’t getting this team where it needs to be, not even on an offense featuring the league’s best trio of QB-WR-WR. If the Bengals opened up their head coaching spot, it would be the most desirable vacancy in the league. 

They’d get their guy, whoever that is. 

Imagine Vikings DC Brian Flores taking over the maligned defense and Burrow leading the offense. It’d be like the Houston Texans or the Buffalo Bills.

Imagine Browns coach Kevin Stefanski (reportedly getting fired) or Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak replacing Taylor in the offensive guru role — and actually being good at it.

5. WHICH COACHES SHOULD STAY, AND WHICH SHOULD GO? 

Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals — Go 
As mentioned, it hasn’t been good enough, not even with the handicap of running the penny-pinching Bengals. 

Aaron Glenn, New York Jets — Stay 
Anyone who thinks the Jets should be rallying around Glenn to finish the season is forgetting that GM Darren Mougey traded away CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. Give the coach one more year, at least.

Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders — Go 
We saw recently with Bill Belichick that it’s not just players who hold onto the game too long. Coaches (like Carroll and Belichick) do it, too.

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns — Stay 
He’s clearly getting fired. It’s also clearly a mistake. But the Browns are gonna Browns.

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins — Stay 
He’s been really impressive in recent weeks, both in terms of offensive scheme and rallying the locker room.

Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals — Go 
The QB situation is going to reset. The coaching situation should, too.

Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Stay 
Folks have been poaching from his coaching staff for the past few years. Give him some time to build the stable back up on the offensive side of the ball. The Bucs will be back.

6. THE SCREENSHOT WORTH 228 WORDS

Life is like a Sam Darnold dropback. You never know what you’re gonna get.

Just take a look at this screenshot, which captures Darnold staring down a wide-open Zach Charbonnet. You’d think he threw this ball for an easy touchdown. And you’d be wrong. Instead, Darnold took an 11-yard sack. 

Because … well, because Sam Darnold.

After two running plays, Seattle went for it on fourth down from the 4-yard line and Darnold threw incomplete to Cooper Kupp for a turnover on downs. Zero points.

That’s what the Seahawks have contended with this season: the moments when Darnold’s brain seems to momentarily leave his body. And there are five to seven of these moments per game. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and coach Mike Macdonald (a defensive guru) have combined to work around those moments with astounding excellence this year. 

But Darnold will keep them vulnerable. 

Think back to the two games against the Rams (one win and one loss). Think back to the game against the Colts (and Philip Rivers' first appearance in five years) which Seattle eked out, 18-16.

Make no mistake: The Seahawks are a terrific football team. But it’s not because of Darnold. In fact, if not for him, they’d be the Super Bowl favorite. But with him — and with him looking off open receivers for an obvious touchdown — the Seahawks are just like everyone else in the postseason field: really good with one fatal flaw.

7. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?

Part 1. Myles Garrett logged his 23rd sack, most in NFL history.

Three things are true.

First, Garrett was the best football player in the league in 2025. Full stop.

Second, Garrett’s record is not — on first glance — more impressive than what Michael Strahan did in 2001 when he logged 22.5 sacks in 16 games (more than Garrett had through 16 games). We can compare apples to apples, and we can initially conclude that Garrett only set the record because he got one more bite at the apple. (It's also worth noting that Al "Bubba" Baker recorded 23 sacks in 1978, four years before sacks became an official stat.) But while we’re comparing apples to apples, let’s look at snaps, shall we? Garrett managed to get to 23 in 437 snaps, faster than Strahan got to 22.5 (567) — and T.J. Watt got to 22.5 in 2021 (616). Records are always complicated, but let’s not overcomplicate this one.

That's why my third point is most important: Garrett is one of the five best pass-rushers in NFL history. This record rightfully asserts his status as a future Hall of Famer. His athleticism — demonstrated by his mind-bending get-off (fastest by any rusher this year) on the sack that broke the record — is transcendent and would’ve made him dominant in any and every era.

So this stat is the truth. 

Garrett made history because he’s historically great.

Part 2. Seahawks rookie guard Grey Zabel drew the highest offensive grade (93.4) for his performance in the team’s win over the 49ers on Saturday, per PFF. It’s the second-highest grade from a Seahawks offensive player (Sam Darnold, Week 6) and the third-highest grade from a guard in any game this year. 

It’s no lie! As inconsistent as the grades are on PFF, this one makes an important point: Zabel isn’t just one of the best rookies in the NFL. He’s the best offensive rookie. And he’s already one of the best offensive linemen. If the NFL actually awarded linemen with the Offensive Rookie of the Year, Zabel would get it.

Zabel is a special talent who is a cornerstone for this offense — and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

8. WHAT IF …

We finally restructured the playoff seeding?

It doesn’t have to be too complicated. If a division champion doesn’t finish the season with a winning record, they are not eligible for the postseason. So when that’s the case, it triggers an extra wild-card spot, letting another team (with more wins) into the postseason.

This wouldn’t wholly destroy the value of divisional games. I love the divisional model, and I love those rivalries. But this tweak would essentially relegate a division when it’s not up to snuff.

If you look back at the league’s full history, you won’t see that it wouldn’t change much. Here are the teams that made the postseason under .500 — and how far they've gotten, per FOX Sports Research.

2022: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) — Lost in the wild card round
2020: Chicago Bears (7-9) — Lost in the wild card round
2014: Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) — Lost in the divisional round
2010: Seattle Seahawks (7-9) — Lost in the divisional round
1982: Cleveland Browns (4-5) — Lost in first round
1982: Detroit Lions (4-5) — Lost in first round

It’s hard to say which team would’ve made the playoffs in place of this year's Panthers, given how a team’s motivation changes after elimination. (Would the Vikings have added another QB? Might the Lions have won in Week 17?) But in this hypothetical situation, it’s easy to imagine we’d see Minnesota (9-8) or, even better, Detroit (9-8) in the postseason over Carolina.

BONUS: FOR THE FOOTBALL NERDS

The Indianapolis Colts ran a fake punt to convert a fourth down — only to run another fake punt on first down. And both times, it was a success!

I’ll keep this brief because this game felt like a preseason game and these two plays felt like a silly little footnote in this silly little game. 

But! But, but, but. Week 18 can be stupid. Let’s not just acknowledge it. Let’s embrace it.

If you’re still with me, let’s talk about something that happened that I’ve never seen before in my countless hours of watching football.

The Colts ran a fake punt in which punter Rigoberto Sanchez threw the ball to the perfect spot for Mo Allie-Cox. After the game, some people were wondering why rookie quarterback Riley Leonard hadn’t been playing in Rivers’ stead, because of how well Leonard played. I left this game wondering why Sanchez wasn’t starting in all those Rivers games.

Maybe coach Shane Steichen was too. Because on the next play — a first down — he left the punt unit on the field. It was as if the Colts had not realized they converted fourth down. With the Texans thoroughly confused, the Colts snapped the ball and drew a penalty for 12 men on the field.

So weird. And utterly nonsensical. 

But also … perfect.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!