Sound Smart: 6 Observations From the NFL in Week 17

You saw the Philadelphia Eagles hold off the Buffalo Bills’ comeback efforts. You saw the Pittsburgh Steelers surprisingly lose to the Cleveland Browns. And you saw the Seattle Seahawks stifle the Carolina Panthers. 

So let's try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we witnessed in Week 17. This is "Sound Smart," where we prepare you for Monday morning with six observations from the Sunday slate. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 17 action.

1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM WEEK 17, IT’S THAT ….

The Eagles and the Bills showed us what they are — and what they’re clearly not.

The outcome of this game made almost no sense, given that the Eagles finished the second half without a single passing yard and that Josh Allen normally makes that final throw — he missed a wide-open Khalil Shakir on a 2-point try with five seconds remaining — 99 times out of 100. 

Even with the surprising outcome, I’m convinced these teams are still exactly who we thought they were. They’re both Super Bowl contenders. But let’s dig deeper than that.

What the Eagles are: Philly’s defense remains one of the NFL’s best, with a rare blend of physicality, speed and ball skills that make it a danger to any and every NFL offense. And while Jalen Hurts’ connection on the field with A.J. Brown remains special, coach Nick Sirianni is clearly committed to letting his defense — not his offense — win the game for the Eagles. This season, we’ve seen the offense completely abandon its aggressiveness after taking the lead. And while it has led to Philly occasionally struggling to protect that lead, we saw — yet again — on Sunday that the Eagles defense is often worth trusting.

What the Eagles aren’t: The Eagles are not good at running the football. We saw that yet again with Saquon Barkley getting bottled up for 3.6 yards per carry. It was their biggest advantage in 2024 — with Saquon (not the defense) protecting their lead. But he can’t do that this year behind this offensive line. And as we saw tonight, Hurts hasn’t had the same command for game management this year. 

The most dramatic representation of that was the following stat: He attempted just seven passes in the second half, and he completed none of them. None! Sirianni has drawn criticism for letting the defense win him games. But we’re beginning to see what he’s seen all along: This offense isn’t built like last year’s team, not even with similar players.

What the Bills are: They are wholly reliant on Josh Allen. He is the reason why they can win the Super Bowl. But that reliance — often an over-reliance — is also why people will have reservations about their Super Bowl prospects. He can’t do it all — not every time. We saw that on Sunday night against the Eagles. The Bills' defense has been outstanding at giving Allen ample chances in the second half to mount the many comebacks that he and the offense have needed to convert. Up until this point, that had been the recipe for their success. But it’s a good thing this happened now, because it gives them a moment to examine their identity as comeback kids. They can’t change that identity. Not now. But maybe they can find ways to better support him, namely through play-calling. 

What the Bills aren’t: Last year, OC Joe Brady adopted the concept: everyone eats. But we haven’t heard that adage much around the Bills in 2025 and that’s because the "eating" has been scarce. The Bills aren’t a good passing team, not even with one of the more transcendent arms in the game. Brandin Cooks was the team’s leading receiver Sunday with four catches and 101 yards — he signed with Buffalo on Nov. 25. He was not meant to be the team’s leading receiver at this point in the season. That should’ve been … everyone and anyone else. 

Try as they might, the Bills still had to run a hook and ladder (for the second time this year) to convert a fourth down in the fourth quarter. That’s not a sign of a healthy offense. Because they are even less healthy than last year, Allen is no longer an MVP candidate. And the Bills are no longer the AFC East champs. 

2. PLAYOFF PICTURE: THE NFL ACCIDENTALLY ADAPTED A PLAY-IN BRACKET

Two teams had control of their playoff fate. The Panthers and the Steelers were in win-and-in situations. Neither team seized the opportunity.

1. The Browns beat the Steelers — and kept the Ravens alive.
2. The Seahawks beat the Panthers — and kept the Buccaneers alive.

Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh understood the magnitude of the situation. You could see the increased urgency and execution on their final drive. They charged down the field — down seven points — all the way to the 7-yard line. It was the best Rodgers had looked all day. But it turned out, it wasn’t sustainable. Because Rodgers finished the drive with three straight incompletions, including a misfire to Marquez Valdes-Scantling to conclude the game. The Pittsburgh loss set up an all-important game next weekend. The Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens will match up in Pittsburgh to decide who gets to make the playoffs.

In the NFC, there was a similarly egregious botch. The Panthers were tied for a large portion of the first half. Quarterback Sam Darnold was playing some of his worst football of the year (and that’s really saying something about a guy who threw four interceptions against the Rams). But the Panthers’ lack of offense — with Bryce Young having a historically inefficient day — led to what felt like an inevitable fourth quarter where the Seahawks pulled away. So, while the Dolphins teed up a playoff berth for the Panthers (by beating the Buccaneers), Carolina didn’t just fail to win — the Panthers failed to even keep it competitive. Now, in Week 18, the Panthers and Buccaneers will play each other for a playoff berth.

Of course, I’m not sure the NFC South showdown will matter much. Neither team is winning a playoff game. Still young and building, the Panthers are a year away from contending. Seemingly old and fading, the Buccaneers are a year removed.

But that’s how the NFL accidentally adapted a play-in bracket. 

Week 18 will be about the AFC North and NFC South divisional titles.

3. HE SAID WHAT?!

"I feel like to an extent, they were more worried about keeping me away from Aaron than getting the win, and I think that's what came to bite them." — Browns DE Myles Garrett on beating the Steelers

Myles Garrett had the chance to make history with a 23rd sack, which would break the NFL record. And Aaron Rodgers was at risk of being on the wrong end of that history — forever entombed in that highlight clip as "The Quarterback Who Took The Historic Sack."

But it never happened.

When the game was over, Garrett admitted he felt like the Steelers focused more on stopping him — than winning the game. That’s a pretty considerable accusation, given the way the Browns’ win has opened the door for Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs altogether. Which would open the door for Mike Tomlin to lose his job. The fallout for a silly game plan — like the one Garrett is suggesting — could prove catastrophic for Pittsburgh’s biggest characters.

I’m here to tell you, Garrett is reaching.

"We didn't do anything against Myles that we don't normally do against Myles. The sack records are irrelevant," coach Mike Tomlin said post-game, via ESPN’s Brooke Pryor. "And so we didn't take a different approach because of the gravity of the record. It's just standard business when you're playing these guys and him."

In other words: That’s just basic game-planning, folks.

Of course, the Steelers wanted to limit Garrett's impact on the game. He’s the best defensive player in the NFL.

Of course, Rodgers wanted to get the ball out of his hands without taking hits from Garrett. Rodgers is not a particularly mobile 42-year-old, and Garrett is among the NFL’s most transcendent athletes.

And to the credit of the game plan, Rodgers was substantially better when he got the ball out quickly. On throws where his time to throw was under 2.5 seconds, he was 16 of 24 (66.7%) for 114 yards with a 77.4 passer rating with a -3.3% completion percentage over expected. All that fell when he held onto the ball past the 2.5-second mark. He was 5-of-13 for 54 yards with a 51.4 passer rating and a -21.1 CPOE.

So yeah, the Steelers did what they could to stop Garrett because, of course, they did. Did they commit too many resources — and for too long? Maybe.

But let’s not get deluded by the idea that Rodgers and Tomlin would risk everything — the playoffs and their jobs — just to avoid Garrett’s milestone.

4. ONE PLAY THAT SAYS IT ALL

There’s no hope for Justin Herbert … and that has nothing to do with Herbert.

I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again: Too often, Justin Herbert appears to be playing 1 vs. 11.

You can see the perfect example of that above, from the blown protection to the dropped pass. 

I don’t want to take away what Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans did to the Chargers this weekend. The Texans looked like a real playoff team. But the Chargers didn’t. Just like last year when Houston bounced L.A.

The difference between this year and last year was that Herbert looked like a real playoff quarterback. He infamously threw four interceptions last year against this same defense. And there’s absolutely zero chance that happens again this year, no matter who the Chargers are playing. L.A. might lose. But it won’t be because of Herbert.

So after watching a playoff-like matchup, I feel the need to get out ahead of the toxic conversation surrounding Herbert. Don’t listen to anyone claiming Herbert isn’t the guy for the Chargers — or that he can’t handle a big game. He doesn’t have the stats or the film for an MVP season. But if you watch every snap from start to finish, you know this team would be a complete disaster without him. So maybe he’s not an MVP candidate. But there’s no question that he’s the Chargers’ MVP.  

If not for him, the Chargers might have fallen out of playoff contention in the same way the Colts did.

5. MY ONE-PICK MOCK DRAFT

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Hopefully, you spared yourself the pain of watching the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders. But the real winner was … well, the loser. That’s the Raiders.

By losing on Sunday, Las Vegas established a clear path to the No. 1 overall pick, where the Raiders will seemingly select Mendoza. Even the Giants are considering Mendoza at first overall, if they were to land in that spot, per NFL Network.

So let’s send Klint Kubiak from the Seahawks to take over the Raiders. (Think of what he could do with Ashton Jeanty!) Let’s send Mendoza from Indiana to Las Vegas. And let’s make sure Maxx Crosby doesn’t leave after he aired out his frustrations over getting shut down.

Mendoza might not be a slam-dunk prospect — he lacks the arm talent and athleticism of many recent No. 1 overall picks. But people will see Kirk Cousins — and, if they squint, maybe they’ll see shades of Joe Burrow. And that’s enough to make him the face of whatever franchise picks first in the 2026 NFL Draft.

6. STATS DON’T LIE — OR DO THEY?

The Cardinals’ Trey McBride logged his 117th reception, setting an NFL record for most catches by a tight end.

We were all watching closely — or I was — for Garrett to lock in the sack record. But during that wait, McBride snagged a record of his own. I think McBride’s accomplishment will go largely undiscussed. 

First of all, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. Who cares, right? They’re 3-13, at the bottom of the NFL. And so it’s hard to make sense of the legitimacy of McBride’s year, given that quarterback Jacoby Brissett has used McBride as a safety valve. But I’m here to tell you that McBride is as special as the numbers say. 

Just because he plays for an unserious franchise, it doesn’t mean he is unserious. He is never in the discussion as one of the NFL’s top tight ends, and that's a mistake. If he were on a perennial playoff contender, we’d be talking about him as the heir apparent to Travis Kelce as the NFL’s best pass-catching tight end. But because of the Cardinals, he’ll never get the credit he deserves and his legacy (without any playoff glory) will undersell his individual success. So we’ll keep brushing him off — just like he brushes off coverage from defensive backs and linebackers alike.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.