Should Bears deal No. 1 overall pick? Ranking five potential trade hauls
The Chicago Bears can hold the 2023 NFL Draft hostage.
As holders of the No. 1 overall pick, they control the board and all the dominos that come with it. Other teams' fates lie with what the Bears do atop the draft. Do they take the consensus top quarterback in this class in former Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young and forsake any progress made by their current quarterback, Justin Fields?
Or, do they take advantage of not needing a quarterback while holding such a valuable position and cash in with any number of willing trade partners to get a haul of picks and surround Fields with the talent he needs to succeed?
I think you likely know what camp I'm in.
[Should Bears trade No. 1 draft pick or swap Justin Fields for Bryce Young?]
If the Bears were to make the latter choice, and NFL general managers across the league come calling, who sets Chicago up the best with the haul they could give? Let's take a look, shall we?
A trade down to No. 4 with the Colts, whose owner Jim Irsay, has perhaps already tipped their hand, is by far the most popular scenario floating around social media for the Bears. And though this list isn't based on popularity, I do think this option is popular for a reason. This scenario would likely net Chicago the best balance of a sizable return while also securing a franchise-changing prospect.
Though it's only three spots, I surmised that the Bears could push for a future first-round pick in 2024 along with a second or third-round pick this year and a Day 2 or 3 pick next. Keep in mind, the Colts hold the No. 35 overall pick in this year's draft, which would give the Bears what they lost in trading for Chase Claypool during the season. It would also give them four top-100 picks this season while giving them two first-round picks (likely in the top 20) in 2024.
Not to mention, only moving down three spots means you would get all this capital while also taking either Georgia's Jalen Carter or Alabama's Will Anderson, widely considered the two best defensive prospects in this draft class. The Bears need a ton of help all along the defensive line, ensuring either player would satisfy a crucial need. You can never have too many elite pass rushers (the Bears don't even have one right now) and they should be pushing for a three-tech on the interior of their front to make their defense into the mold of head coach Matt Eberflus.
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Colin Cowherd explains Chicago should move off the No. 1 pick and predicts whether Justin Fields will be gone or not.
The Panthers aren't picking until No. 9 and are desperate (once again) for a quarterback. There's an argument to be made that Carolina would make the most sense even because a deal will yield the most capital for the Bears without dropping them out of the top 10. With how quarterbacks rise, there could conceivably be four quarterbacks taken before Chicago picks at nine, leaving some excellent options still on the table. Yes, I'm including Anthony Richardson in those four quarterbacks. From the scouts and coaches I've spoken with, many don't think he'll make it out of the top 10 and could very well go top five. That means there would be just four other non-quarterbacks that would be taken before the Bears took their swing at No. 9. Sure, Will Anderson and Jalen Carter might be gone, but think Tyree Wilson or Paris Johnson Jr.
There are plenty of opinions out there across the league that Wilson and Anderson are more interchangeable than we all collectively think. The Bears also need to shore up nearly every position along the offensive line. They have the depth, they need the starters, and Johnson is one of the best tackles in this class. He should be available at nine and even if he's not, Chicago would only have to pluck from their backyard to get Northwestern's Peter Skoronski.
The difference between the haul you'd get from the Colts and from the Panthers is going to be significant. It likely manifests in more Day 2 picks but there are plenty of starters to be found there, too. That would bring the haul to a 2024 first, plus a couple later-round picks (they have two fifth-rounders in 2024 already) and then Day 2 picks right away. Carolina has two second-round picks this year — you could likely ask for both of those, and they also have two fourth-round picks. Grabbing one or both of those would be easy. Some combination of those picks would be a win for Chicago. The Bears can't afford to be super picky and if you're thinking of this as a multi-year process (which you should), the focus should be on getting the most capital you possibly can. This is the way to do it.
This is going to obviously yield the least return, though not insignificant. Think about the fact that the Bears traded up one spot in the 2017 draft to get Mitch Trubisky that included a pick swap, two third-round picks (one in 2017, one in 2018) and a 2017 fourth-rounder. And that was to move up from the third pick to the second pick. The Bears could still get valuable capital to use immediately in a trade like this.
But more than the capital, it yields another, potentially ideal, possibility: the double trade down.
This is, of course, hinging on a willing partner. But if the Bears could squeeze all they could out of the Texans and then still pull off the trade with the Colts or even the Panthers, they could get an absolute treasure trove of picks and prospects this year and next. The potential wrench? The Arizona Cardinals sitting at No. 3 overall.
The Cardinals won't be taking a quarterback. They can't. They've invested entirely too much into Kyler Murray and the new regime is stuck with him. They know that. Other teams know that. So therein lies an opportunity for another quarterback-needy team to trade into. Say the Texans move up one spot to first overall and the Bears are now at 2. The Cardinals are at three. The next team that needs a quarterback isn't until No. 4 with the Colts, so teams don't have much incentive to go up to the two spot if they can accomplish what they need to accomplish moving into the three spot. It's a wildcard scenario at best, which is why it's on this list after the Colts and Panthers.
But if they could pull it off. If teams don't want to take any chances and want to get to that second spot to secure their guy, the Bears would absolutely clean up.
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FOX Sports NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali weighs in on the chances of the Bears drafting a quarterback with the No. 1 draft pick.
The Raiders got rid of Derek Carr and don't exactly have a plan B. They've also reportedly "closed the door" on trading for veteran Aaron Rodgers, which lends itself to the possibility they're going to roll the dice in the draft.
If that's the case, sitting at No. 7 isn't going to cut it. Not even for Anthony Richardson. I had one NFC scout tell me he could see Richardson going top five. To be safe, if you want Richardson, or Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud or Will Levis, you'll likely have to part with some significant capital for those assurances. And if you're going to part with significant capital already, you might as well go all the way to the top and get your top guy.
Vegas has nine picks in the 2023 draft as it stands. A pick swap would still cost you a future first but you could part with two Day 3 picks without blinking an eye. Throw in your second-round pick at No. 38 overall and maybe a second-rounder next year? Well, now you're talking.
And if those aforementioned four quarterbacks do go in the top five or six, the Bears could still end up with Anderson or Carter given the fact there would be just two non-quarterbacks taken before Chicago was on the clock. It would just take one non-quarterback needy team to believe in someone other than those two. Wait. Did I just talk myself into this being the best-case scenario for the Bears?
Geno Smith is set to be a free agent and the Seahawks have Drew Lock waiting in the wings if Smith ends up being too pricey. They aren't at all a lock to want to draft a quarterback — much less part with significant capital to do so. But if they did, this would be an excellent option for the Bears. They'd yield perhaps another Day 2 pick, if they were lucky, to drop down one extra spot to five from the Colts' scenario, while still likely being able to snag one of their top defensive players.
The problem with this scenario is that it's much more of a question mark.
Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.
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