San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions: Prediction, odds, picks for NFC championship game

The San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions will play in the NFC Championship game of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. The 49ers are solid favorites, expected to win by at least a touchdown (currently -7). The expected point total for the game is 51.

After defeating the Los Angeles Rams in the wild card, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round, the Lions find themselves in the conference championship for the first time since 1992 — where they lost to Washington 41-10. 

Meanwhile, the 49ers are no strangers to the conference championship as this marks their 19th appearance in franchise history. They defeated the Green Bay Packers 24-21 to get here, after a first-round bye. 

Which one of these two teams will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVIII?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Lions and 49ers — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

49ers vs. Lions Odds & Betting Lines

49ers vs. Lions Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: San Francisco (-7) 
• Pick OU: Under (51) 
• Prediction: San Francisco 28 - Detroit 20

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

Going back to this one even though it came up short last week despite Dre Greenlaw’s best effort to return his interception in the final minute as far as possible. 

This Lions defense is not good. It surrendered 408 yards to the Bucs on almost seven yards per play. This comes a week after the Rams went into Detroit and racked up 425 yards on nearly eight yards per play.

Now, the Lions are removed from the comfort of their home field and will try to slow down a 49ers team that has even more weapons than their two previous opponents.

Brock Purdy struggled with the wet football last week, but the forecast looks clear for Sunday, and offense should be easy to come by for the 49ers.

Brock Purdy struggled with the wet football last week, but the forecast looks clear for Sunday, and offense should be easy to come by for the 49ers.

PICK: 49ers TT Over 28.5

I expect a big workload for Brandon Aiyuk on Sunday and a lot of opportunities for big plays. 

Deebo Samuel hurt his shoulder in last week’s game against the Packers, and is 50-50 to play this week. If Samuel is unable to play, that would peg Aiyuk as the primary target against a Lions secondary that has been hemorrhaging yardage so far this postseason. 

If Samuel does play, Aiyuk will likely be guarded by Lions’ cornerback Kindle Vildor, a player that teams have routinely targeted as a liability in pass coverage. 

Either way, Aiyuk is in position to have a monster performance on Sunday. 

PICK: Brandon Aiyuk Over 79.5 Rec Yards

How to Watch San Francisco vs. Detroit

• Game Date: Sunday, January 28, 2024
• Time: 6:30 PM ET
• Venue: Levi's Stadium
• Location: Santa Clara, California
• TV: Watch on FOX

49ers vs. Lions Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head bouts, San Francisco has defeated Detroit four times.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, San Francisco has racked up 119 points, while Detroit has posted 103.

San Francisco Betting Info

• San Francisco covered the spread nine times in 17 games during the season season and is 0-1-0 versus the spread in the postseason.
• The 49ers have an ATS record of 5-6 when playing as at least 7-point favorites this season (regular season and playoffs).
• Out of 17 San Francisco games in the regular season, nine went over the total. In the playoffs, it has exceeded the point total in zero of one contest.
• The 49ers finished 12-5 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite during the regular season (winning 70.6% of those games). In the postseason, they have a record of 1-0 when favored on the moneyline.
• When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -325 or shorter, San Francisco has a 9-2 record (winning 81.8% of its games), including the regular season and postseason.
• Looking at this matchup's moneyline, the 49ers' implied win probability is 76.5%.

49ers Stats

San Francisco's Key Players

Offense

• Christian McCaffrey has recorded 1,459 rushing yards (first in the NFL) with 14 touchdowns (91.2 yards per game across 16 games). His 5.4 yards per attempt rank second in the NFL.
• McCaffrey has been targeted 83 times in the receiving game and has 67 catches (4.2 per game) for 564 yards (35.3 per game) and seven TDs.
• Brock Purdy has thrown for 4,280 yards (fifth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He is averaging 267.5 yards per game and 9.6 per attempt, while completing 69.4%.
• He has tacked on 144 rushing yards (9.0 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
• In 15 games played, Deebo Samuel is averaging 59.5 yards and 4.0 receptions per game on the way to 892 receiving yards and 60 catches. He's been targeted 89 times, and has seven receiving touchdowns.
• Brandon Aiyuk has racked up 1,342 receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) and seven touchdowns with 75 catches on 105 targets. He's averaging 4.7 receptions and 83.9 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense, Fred Warner has 2.5 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL, 132 tackles, and four interceptions in 2023.
• Nick Bosa has 53 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 10.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
• Dre Greenlaw has collected 120 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
• So far this season, Charvarius Ward has 72 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and five interceptions. He's fourth on the 49ers in tackles.

Detroit Betting Info

• Detroit's record against the spread in the regular season was 12-5-0. It has an ATS record of 1-1-0 in the playoffs.
• In 17 Detroit games during the regular season, 11 of them went over the total. Meanwhile, one of two games in the playoffs have hit the over.
• The Lions won one of the three games in which they were underdogs during the regular season, and are 0-0 in the postseason.
• Detroit has not entered a regular season or playoff game this season with longer moneyline odds than +260.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Lions have a 27.8% chance to win.

Lions Stats

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• In 17 games played this year, Jared Goff has amassed 4,575 passing yards (second-best in the NFL), with 30 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) against 12 interceptions and completing 67.3% of his attempts.
• On the ground, Goff has added two rushing touchdowns and 21 rushing yards (seventh on the Lions).
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has put together a 2023 campaign that includes 119 catches (second in the NFL) for 1,515 yards (third in the NFL) and 10 receiving touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) through 16 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 164 targets and is averaging 7.4 receptions per game.
• So far this season through 14 games, David Montgomery has racked up 1,015 rushing yards (leading the Lions and ninth in the NFL) and scored 13 rushing touchdowns. He averages 72.5 yards per game and 4.6 per carry (11th in the NFL).
• Jahmyr Gibbs has 945 rushing yards (second on the Lions) and 10 rushing touchdowns, while averaging 63.0 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt (fifth in the NFL).
• Gibbs has also caught 52 passes for 316 yards (sixth on the Lions), with one receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 71 times and averages 21.1 yards per game.

Defense

• Aidan Hutchinson has 11.5 sacks (first on the Lions) to go with 14.0 TFL, 51 tackles, and one interception over 17 games in 2023.
• Alex Anzalone has 3.0 sacks in addition to his 7.0 TFL and 129 tackles through 16 games.
• Brian Branch has 74 tackles, 7.0 TFL, one sack, and three interceptions in the 2023 campaign. He is fifth on the Lions in tackles.
• Kerby Joseph's stat sheet includes four interceptions (seventh in the NFL) as well as 81 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 11 passes defended in 15 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.