Sam Ehlinger provides hope amid Colts' QB carousel: AFC South analysis

The veteran quarterback benched for a sixth-round pick. The offensive coordinator fired. A top offensive weapon traded. 

All of those events happened in just a span of eight days for the Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1), who are undergoing drastic changes for their struggling offense. 

What does it all mean?

Let's break down the ramifications, and optics, of the moves in this week's Colts-focused AFC South takeaways: 

Brady appears to be fall guy for Reich 

On Tuesday, the Colts "relieved" Marcus Brady of his duties as offensive coordinator, a role he had held since last season following the departure of Nick Sirianni, who left to become head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Brady seems to be the scapegoat for head coach Frank Reich — at least it appears that way until the Colts provide a legitimate reason for why he was fired. 

Brady had been with the Colts since 2018, rising from assistant quarterbacks coach (2018) to quarterbacks coach (2019-20) to offensive coordinator (2021-22). 

"This was an incredibly hard decision, but one I felt needed to be made in the best interest of the team," Reich said in a statement. "I appreciate Marcus' commitment to the organization, and he made a significant contribution to our offensive success over the last five seasons. I wish him the best moving forward."

Brady's firing is a head-scratcher, considering that Reich is the playcaller for the Colts. Brady helped with the offensive game plan and play design, and while there's much more to that than the average fan understands, it begs the question: How much really changes with Reich still calling the shots? Reich will reportedly assume offensive coordinator duties for the rest of the season. 

Colts owner Jim Irsay has already given Reich (and general manager Chris Ballard) a vote of confidence, telling ESPN on Sunday that he's given no thought to firing him. But Reich's offense has been dreadful, tied for the worst in giveaways (16), third-worst in scoring (16.1), second-worst in first-half scoring (42 points for the season), third-worst in fourth-down efficiency (28.6%) and 26th in red zone efficiency (47.6%). So something had to change. Indianapolis elected for it to be Brady's job status with the franchise. 

After the disappointing finish to last season, a stunning loss in the regular-season finale to the Jacksonville Jaguars that ended their playoff hopes, the Colts pointed the finger at Carson Wentz. They traded him to the Washington Commanders, just a year after acquiring him from the Eagles. Irsay would later say at the owners meetings that trading for Wentz was a "mistake." 

Seven games into this season, the Colts pointed the finger at Matt Ryan — Wentz's replacement and the guy they pegged as the missing link to a Super Bowl run. Sure, Reich acknowledged that the team didn't hold up its end of the bargain in giving the 37-year-old QB an elite run game and solid pass protection. But pulling the plug on Ryan before the halfway point of the season showed that Indianapolis doesn't trust the veteran to pull the offense out of the abyss. 

And now the Colts are pointing the finger at Brady, an offensive coordinator who didn't call plays. 

When will the finger be pointed at Reich?

Is it possible for Ehlinger to be the Colts' QB1 of the future? 

It's hard to not come away impressed with what Sam Ehlinger did in his first career start with the Colts. 

The offense found a way to beat itself again in Sunday's 17-16 loss to the Commanders, Indianapolis' second straight defeat. But the second-year pro, with the weight of the Colts' season on his shoulders, didn't flinch. He showed poise and command of the offense. For the most part, he seemed comfortable in the pocket, which was one of the biggest question marks for team observers. He stepped up in the pocket when he needed to and made some nice throws on the move. All but one shot he took down the field was on target, according to Reich.

His best throw of the game: On second-and-14 from the Colts' 19 in the third quarter, he connected with rookie receiver Alec Pierce for a 44-yard completion down the numbers. 

"I thought Sam looked good," Reich said postgame. "I think we were all confident that we were going to see it, but you could feel it. … We weren't panicking on the sideline." 

But the Colts didn't make enough plays to help the former Texas standout. 

Two plays after that deep connection with Pierce, star running back Jonathan Taylor fumbled the ball. And in a challenging situation from even the best quarterbacks, down by one with only 19 seconds left and one timeout, Ehlinger gave Indianapolis a fighting chance. He delivered a great ball in stride to Michael Pittman Jr. over the deep middle. But the Colts' leading receiver dropped the pass. 

The defense didn't help, either. After holding the Commanders to seven points through three quarters, it gave up 10 points on back-to-back possessions of 80-plus yards at the end of the final period.

Ehlinger wasn't perfect. There were some throws he probably wants back, including a near interception in the first quarter. He also fumbled at the Commanders' 17 in the second quarter, when he appeared to lose grip of the ball when he tried to tuck and run under pressure.  

But there was way more good than bad. 

Considering the sequence of events that led the Colts to Ehlinger, who had never attempted a pass in an NFL regular-season game before Sunday, that's pretty impressive. 

"Obviously, don't ever really know what to expect until you're in there and the live bullets are coming," Ehlinger said. "I think now I know what it feels like to play a regular-season game. I think that there's a lot of potential for growth, which I'm excited about. There's a lot of things to clean up and things to do better. There's a lot of opportunities out there to be had. I'm looking forward to continuing to grow and improve."

After an encouraging first start for Ehlinger, there's a lot to unpack with the Colts quarterback situation. Reich has already said Ehlinger is the starter for the rest of the season. But will he continue to ascend with more reps? One game certainly won't dispel the uncertainty for the team's future at the position. 

Even if Ehlinger plays well for the rest of the season, is that enough to earn him the job for 2023? Who knows. Maybe the Colts don't even know. 

There's a strong argument for the Colts to take a quarterback in next year's draft regardless of how Ehlinger plays. But factor this: Will the Colts even be bad enough to get one of the top quarterbacks? The defense figures to be strong regardless of how Ehlinger and the offense perform. If the season ended today, Indianapolis would have the 15th pick in the draft — certainly not high enough to get one of the blue-chips at quarterback. 

For now, the Colts will try to hang their hats on an inconsistent offense that has flashed potential. Against the Commanders, there was the 47-yard completion to Pierce, Taylor's 27-yard run in the first quarter and a 38-yard screen pass to Parris Campbell.  

"We showed that we could be an explosive offense," Ehlinger said postgame. "We had some explosive plays. We just got to keep building from here."

Ehlinger will have a chance to do just that. 

Hines will be missed by Colts, but he was also underutilized

In trading running back Nyheim Hines to the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday, the Colts lost their versatile No. 2 option behind All-Pro Jonathan Taylor. 

Since being selected in the fourth round of the 2018 draft, Hines showed he was a threat in the run and pass game, in addition to his punt-return skills. He has 1,725 receiving yards over the past five seasons, the fifth-most among running backs.

But the reality is that Hines was also underutilized in the Colts offense. He was playing a career-low 30% of offensive snaps this season. He had just 18 carries for 36 yards — a two-yards-per-carry average — in seven games this year playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football. He had just 46 carries in 2021, a drastic drop-off from 2020, when he had 89. 

For Hines, who was reportedly open to a trade, he gets a fresh start with a Super Bowl contender that figures to use him heavily. 

The Colts in return received running back Zack Moss and a conditional 2023 sixth-round pick that can become a fifth-rounder. Indianapolis couldn't give Hines the role he probably deserved and flipped him for a draft pick and a backup. Moss will compete with Deon Jackson — who has flashed when given the opportunity — for an RB2 role that becomes less significant with Taylor's workload creeping back up after a two-game absence from an ankle injury.

Moss is also a much cheaper backup running back, playing on a rookie deal. Hines had signed a three-year, $18.6 million extension with Indianapolis in September 2021. 

For those reasons, the Colts' return for Hines wasn't bad — even if the trade stings to some fans.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.