Saints vs. Buccaneers: Five brave predictions

The Saints host the Buccaneers this week on Christmas Eve, two weeks after a thrashing in Tampa Bay. The Saints season is all but over, so we’re going to have some fun with these weeks predictions.

After a season of heartbreak and frustration, I’m somewhat relieved to no longer care about the final games’ outcomes. I mean, yes, I’d like the Saints to win. I’ll feel much better after the season at 8-8 than I would at 7-9 or 6-10. But I’m not throwing my computer across the room anymore when Brees throws a pick or the secondary gives up a big touchdown. I’ve found some semblance of inner peace. So I can make some silly predictions in good conscience.

All I’m looking for this week are positive signs. And I thought about writing a piece on what sort of signs I’ll be looking for. But in the end, I wrote this, a bit of a pointless exercise but a fun one nonetheless. And for a Christmas Eve game, we’d might as well have some fun. We all know what positive signs we’re looking for, and we’ll certainly know when we see or don’t see them.

So without further ado, we’ll get started with our five brave predictions for Saturday. Starting off a little boring…

Mark Ingram’s frustration continues as neither run game gets off the ground.

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Ingram didn’t come off very well during last Sunday’s contest against the Cardinals. Admittedly, Ingram ran very well on the day and was rewarded by coming off the field on goal line situations. I’m sure, if I were in his shoes, I’d be frustrated too. But man, have some perspective. Payton gave those goal line carries to Tim Hightower for a reason. I know they’re all athletes, and I love to see competitiveness like what we saw in Ingram. But still, time and place.

Well, I’m predicting that his frustration continues this Saturday. Hightower and Bucs RB Doug Martin will get in on that action as well. Neither run game will get anything going.

I’m basing this on two things: Sean Payton’s propensity to abandon the run against strong run defenses, as demonstrated by these two teams’ last matchup. Ingram and Hightower combined for only 13 rushing attempts. Only 45 yards. Beyond a possible offensive shakeup after a horrendous performance in Tampa Bay, nothing’s changed to suggest either back will garner more carries.

And on the flip side, Doug Martin has averaged just 2.9 yards per carry this season. The Saints run defense is much improved, and it’s no great stretch to think they completely shut Martin down. Jacquizz Rodgers is no great talent either. So either this is a defensive showdown or an aerial onslaught. But the first of my predictions: a toothless running game for either side.

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

With the lead, the Buccaneers intercept Drew Brees late in the game

Ok, here’s how the rest of this article will work: we’re going to predict exactly how the late game plays out. Starting here.

After three quarters of back and forth, the Buccaneers enter the 4th quarter up by 9. Brees has the ball. The Saints are marching.

Things are looking up for New Orleans. They may be down 10, but they’ve outgained the Buccaneers on the day. They’ve struggled to turn that into points, but things are looking to change. The chains are moving. Into Buccaneers territory. The 40. Down to the 30. Just outside the 20.

Cooks and Thomas line up to the right, Cooks in the slot. Thomas runs a post route, and Cooks runs a deep outside slant. The safety hesitates, decides to run with Thomas, who is for a second open. Cooks is isolated on his CB, and has the step. Brees takes the shot.

Intercepted!

Down 10, the Saints turn the ball over in the Buccaneers red zone. They can move the ball, but its starting to look like a doomed enterprise.

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints defense scores!

After the Brees interception, the Saints defense is on its heels. Jameis Winston had struggled all game to move the ball, but suddenly he’s cutting through the Black and Gold like a knife through butter. Mike Evans is too much. Winston has too much time in the pocket. The Saints coverage is falling apart, and the Buccaneers are entering Saints territory.

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On 2nd and short, Dirk Koetter decides to go for the jugular. He dials up a max protection, go-route for Evans. Jameis Winston takes a five-step drop, Evans appears to break free from Sterling Moore’s coverage, Vonn Bell is trailing the play, desperately trying to catch the Buccaneers receiver. The protection seems good, and Winston cocks his arm back to throw.

But what’s this?

Suddenly, a flash of gold comes breaking through the line of red. Cameron Jordan rips free of the offensive line. He’s coming right for Winston, but Jameis is already in the throwing motion. Evans is open. Can Jordan reach him in time?

Winston’s arm comes surging forward. The ball is leaving his hands. Jordan makes contact with the body, but is it too little, too late?

No!

The ball comes wobbling out of Winston’s hands! It’s a lame duck, floating in the air above the scrum that is the line of scrimmage. It starts to drop, but only Winston appears to even see the ball. But suddenly one head jumps up out of the crowd, two hands corral the ball, and like out of rocket, there he goes. It’s Jairus Byrd.

And he’s all alone. After making a move on an off-balance Winston, he’s gone. The Saints defense scores, and it’s a two-point game.

Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Coby Fleener drops the go-ahead touchdown.

Yes, so maybe that last prediction was a bit specific. Well, tough. That’s how these predictions are going.

After closing the gap to two, the Saints defense puffs up their chests and forces a three-and-out for Winston and the Buccaneers offense. Brees gets the ball back. But after two lengthy drives, there are only about 3 minutes left to play in the 4th quarter, and the Saints are still down by 2.

All New Orleans needs is a field goal.

And so begins a methodical, run-out-the-clock style offense. It’s frustrating to watch. The Saints take underneath throws for minimal yards. The clock is ticking, the Saints are moving the chains but nowhere near the speed we’d like to see. Payton insists on playing with balance, depsite the negligable run game thus far. Ingram takes a few for two yards. Brees throws for a first down. Hightower’s dropped for a loss. Brees gains 10 through the air. Kuhn busts through for another first down.

Finally, with under a minute left to play, the Saints enter Buccaneers territory. At this rate, it looks like the Buccaneers will hold on. Payton is confident in Wil Lutz’s range, but the Saints need to gain a bit more to get there. Payton dials up a simple out route to Cooks, with Fleener lined up in the slot.

Unger snaps the ball. Brees surveys the field. He likes what he saw presnap, and looks Cooks’ way. Cooks appears to have the step. But out of the corner of his eye, Brees spots something: the Buccaneers safety has tripped! Coby Fleener, running an go-route, is uncovered down the field! He’s all alone!

Brees has plenty of space to get the throw off. He takes two steps forward, and let’s it loose. A beauty. The stadium holds its breath, the ball soars through the air, it finds Fleener perfectly in stride just as he enters into the end zone, and Fleener—he drops the ball!

Who could have guessed it.

Dec 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New Orleans Saints kicker Wil Lutz (3) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Saints defeated the Cardinals 48-41. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Wil Lutz lines up for the game-winning field goal.

It comes down to this. After Fleener’s back-breaking drop, the Saints manage to pick up a few more yards. They’ve crossed into Buccaneers territory, but they didn’t gain much besides. They’re on the 45-yard line, 5 seconds left, no timeouts.

Payton considers, for a moment, a hail mary. Considers. Considers.

But he sends out the field goal unit.

Wil Lutz, Payton’s golden boy. He’s had his share of blocked kicks this season, but he’s been relatively accurate.

Unfortunately, he’s kicking this one from the 45-yard line. That’s a 62-yard field goal.

Lutz has shown he has a leg. His career long, in only one season, is 57. But today Saints fans get to see him really test himself out.

So they line up. Morstead the placeholder. Drescher the long snapper. Drescher snaps the ball. A Buccaneers defender tries to jump over the line, but the Saints are ready this time. He’s pushed back. The snap is off, the hold is good, Lutz lets it fly.

Boom. It’s got the distance. Lutz looks on. It’s wavering in the air. There’s no wind. The stadium, this time, really holds its breath. It’s going, going, going…

Well, what happens???

I can’t tell you. You’ll have to tune in tomorrow.