Saints, Falcons, Bucs in three-wide race to the finish for NFC South title

The NFC South is the worst division in the NFL, yes, but it's also the most closely contested race in the league.

One game separates first and third place with seven weeks left, with the Saints (5-5) just ahead of the Falcons (4-6) and Bucs (4-6). And while the Panthers (1-9) might have the league's worst record, they're somehow closer to first in their division than the 4-7 Commanders are in the NFC East and as close as the 4-6 Packers are in the NFC North.

The top of the NFC South could easily get even more tightly bunched this weekend. If the Bucs win at the Colts on Sunday and the Falcons win at home against the Saints, you'd have an (ugly) three-way tie for first at 5-6, setting up a six-week sprint for the division title and, of course, a home playoff game.

The Bucs, Falcons and Saints have all spent time atop the division standings, and what's more, the NFC South has the most remaining divisional games in the league — eight of the 12 have yet to be played, compared to just four of 12 in the AFC North. That means there's at least one division game in all but one weekend the rest of the way, with two in Week 14 and Week 18.

Those division games have huge ramifications on who will win the South, and we'll highlight the four games remaining between the three contenders, accepting that the Panthers are likely left to be spoilers if they can salvage a win here or there.

Saints at Falcons, Sunday: The winner here is in the driver's seat. If the Saints win, they could have a two-game lead. If the Falcons win, they'll have a share of the lead and will be 3-0 in-division with head-to-head wins against both Tampa Bay and New Orleans.

New Orleans has won three in a row against Atlanta and six of the past seven matchups. The Saints have won five in a row in Atlanta, none more painful for the home team than last year's opener, when the Falcons led 26-10 in the fourth quarter only to lose 27-26 on a pair of Jameis Winston touchdowns to Michael Thomas and a late Wil Lutz field goal.

Atlanta is going back to Desmond Ridder as its starting quarterback, so the challenge will be whether he can limit his turnovers — six lost fumbles, one off the NFL lead, and six interceptions — against a Saints defense that has picked off 12 passes, tied for second-most in the NFL. It's also the first time Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will go up against the team he coached for from 2017-22.

Bucs at Falcons, Week 14: Atlanta won the first meeting a month ago in Tampa, overcoming three red-zone fumbles by Ridder. The Bucs rallied to tie the game with 45 seconds left, only to see the Falcons win on a Younghoe Koo kick as time expired. Both teams have endured bad slides during this season, with the Bucs losing five of their past six and the Falcons six of their past eight.

The New York Times' NFL simulator gives Atlanta a 33% chance to make the playoffs right now. If the Falcons get home wins against the Saints and Bucs in the next three weeks, that jumps to 65%, even though they'd be 7-6 at best at that point. Atlanta's remaining non-division opponents are fairly easy — Jets, Colts, Bears — so the Falcons still very much control their fate.

Saints at Bucs, Week 17: This is on New Year's Eve in Tampa, and sets up a huge span of eight days for the Saints, facing the Bucs and hosting the Falcons in two games that almost certainly will help decide the division winner. The Bucs won the first meeting by a 26-9 score, but it was a one-score game with four minutes left before the Bucs scored the final nine points.

Tampa Bay has now won three straight against the Saints, reversing a trend during the Drew Brees era, as New Orleans had won six of the previous seven, the notable exception being Brees' final game — a loss in the 2020 playoffs. If the Bucs can win here, they get to close the regular season at Carolina, where they're likely to have much more on the line than the Panthers.

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Falcons at Saints, Week 18: These two teams have their final seven games bookended with games against each other, and a sweep either way would be huge, while a split would make it easier for the Bucs to rally to first by beating both.

Who wins the South will have implications far beyond the standings. It's probably the easiest way for Dennis Allen, Arthur Smith or Todd Bowles to keep his job, while the coach who finishes third might not be as fortunate. For fans with a more long-term view, the division champ will pick no higher than 19th in the 2024 NFL Draft, while a runner-up with a similar record could be picking in the top 10.

Could the NFC South, bad as it's been, actually manage a wild card this year? The Falcons and Bucs are only one loss behind the Vikings for the NFC's final spot, though the NFC South's three contending teams play each other enough that it might take one of the three struggling to send the other two to the playoffs. The NYT simulator gives the Saints a 10% chance to make the playoffs as a wild card, with the Falcons at 8% and the Bucs at 11%. So it's certainly in play, and worth noting that the Bucs beat Minnesota head-to-head for that tiebreaker. 

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.