Ryan Fitzpatrick has become the key to the Jets offense
By Justin Kelly
The New York Jets began the season 4-1, and the naked eye would attribute the majority of their offensive success to running back Chris Ivory. In every game he played, the Jets won and relied heavily on the sixth-year back. He carried the ball 63 times for 314 yards, which comes close to five yards per touch. Though quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick by no means played poorly, he wasn't expected to throw the ball to win games.As ESPN's Rich Cimini noted, the Jets' pass-run ratio in these games was nearly even at 53-47.
But things have changed. In the last nine games, the Jets' offense has undergone major transformation. While Ivory still threatens to bust out for big gains from the backfield, Fitzpatrick has become the offensive focal point. The New York offense now resembles a conventional one, wherein the quarterback runs the show and can switch between weapons every play.
First, note that the extent of this transformation is remarkable. Cimini points out that the pass-run ratio leading up the victory over Dallas had ballooned to 61-39. In the first five games, Fitzpatrick only threw the ball more than 35 times once, in a loss to the Eagles. In the last nine games, he has 35 or more attempts in six games, and the Jets are 4-2 in those games. Fitzpatrick only threw for more than 250 yards twice in the first five games (253, 283). He's had six such games since then, some of which have much more impressive totals (390, 299). Both by perception and by the numbers, Fitzpatrick has become the offensive centerpiece.
Second and more important, Fitzpatrick has excelled with the offense more on his shoulders. By two advanced metrics, Fitzpatrick has proven himself a top ten quarterback: YAR (yards above replacement) and QBR (ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating). YAR attempts to quantify how much value a QB adds over a replacement level passer. Fitzpatrick has 614 YAR, putting him eighth in the league. QBR attempts to capture all total value of quarterback, including intangibles like clutch factor, in a single number from 1-100. Fitzpatrick is seventh in the league at 68.2.
As Fitzpatrick has excelled, the Jets' offense has gained efficiency. Though it hovered below league average during the first half of the season, the Jets now are above average in total offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders). Their passing attack, unsurprisingly, ranks tenth. The improvements of Fitzpatrick have bolstered the stats of his receivers, who also deserve credit for their efforts. Only four teams in the NFL have two receivers in the top 20 for WR DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement): Jaguars, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Jets.
Evidently, Fitzpatrick has carried the offensive load for this team since Week Six, and this transition has paid dividends in terms of win-loss record, efficiency, and receiver performance. But Fitzpatrick's ascent also comes as a surprise, given his age and past performance. At 33, he's posted the highest QBR of his career, is only about 400 yards from his career high (3832 in 2011), and is three TD passes away from tying the franchise single-season record. How did this happen?
Outside of Fitzpatrick's hard work and dedication, there are three readily identifiable factors to the journeyman's success: the offensive line, the available weapons, and the passing scheme designed by offensive coordinator Chan Gailey.
The offensive line is one of the best in league at pass protection. Football Outsiders provides the metric Adjusted Sack Rate, "which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent." The Jets are fourth in the league by this metric (4.1 percent). Center Nick Mangold and crew, despite facing injuries at times this season, have kept Fitzpatrick from feeling the pressure. Obviously, quarterbacks do better with time to survey the field and pass.
As noted earlier, the Jets are one of the few teams in the league with two top-twenty receivers (by DYAR). Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall are both having outstanding seasons, but the lesser known Jet receivers have come up big in the clutch as well:
In addition to the solid receiving core, Fitzpatrick has enjoyed the threat of Chris Ivory out of the the backfield. Ivory and second-string back Bilal Powell have already totaled over 1,000 yards this season. Defenses, therefore, have to prepare for both the ground game and passing attack. This opens up the play-action for passes downfield, which Fitzpatrick can capitalize on.
The final factor to Fitzpatrick's career-best season is the passing scheme designed by Chan Gailey. As Greg Cosell explains on The Herd, a whopping 33 percent of Jets plays feature four receivers on the field. This scheme spreads the defense out, which opens things up for shorter passes or for runs by Ivory. Here, the Jets line up with five receivers to force a one-on-one match up with Marshall on the outside. The defense cannot adjust because it's spread too thin. Fitzpatrick is not asked to make a very difficult throw, but the play is nonetheless effective. Through intelligent offensive arrangements, the Jets have played to the strengths of their running game and receiver core so that Fitzpatrick finds open men more easily.
Despite his career-best, Fitzpatrick and the Jets (now 9-5) do not control their own destiny. Regardless of how things shake out in the AFC playoff picture, Jets' management must consider if these offensive results can be replicated with the aging Fitzpatrick. All that is certain for now is that the journeyman QB seems to have found a home in Gotham.
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