Russell Wilson trade scenarios: Four teams that make sense

By Eric D. Williams
FOX Sports NFL Writer

After missing the playoffs for just the third time in Pete Carroll’s tenure, the Seattle Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson are at a critical juncture for a franchise that was once a regular championship contender.

At 33 years old, Wilson has two years left on a deal that includes a no-trade clause.

However, reports surfaced last year from Wilson’s representation that he would agree to a trade to the right team.

At a crossroads, the Seahawks should accept Wilson’s request for a trade, rebuilding the roster in an effort to get back to Carroll’s championship blueprint created when he took over the team in 2010. The 70-year-old recently signed a new deal to coach the club through the 2025 season.

Yes, Wilson helped lead this franchise to places it had never been, including back-to-back Super Bowl appearances and a lopsided victory over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. The Seahawks also won four NFC West titles with Wilson under center, and the QB has a 9-7 postseason record with Seattle. 

But Wilson has not played his best football of late. The Seahawks have won one playoff game the past five seasons, as the offense shifted to a more pass-first approach to take advantage of Wilson’s ability to throw the deep ball. 

Entering the last game of the 2021 regular season, Wilson had averaged 7.3 yards per attempt in his prior 25 starts, down from 8.3 YPA in the 25 starts before that, according to The Athletic. Wilson’s passer rating dropped from 110.6 to 97.4, and his turnovers nearly doubled from 11 to 20 in that same period.

Of course, he played with a broken finger on his throwing hand that certainly affected his passing ability. The Seahawks started last season 3-8 before rebounding and finishing at 7-10, Seattle’s first losing record since 2011.

"The only way [a trade] makes sense is if they have an option coming back their way at quarterback," said Randy Mueller, a longtime NFL general manager who worked for the Seahawks. "Nothing against Geno Smith, but I don’t think that’s the answer. So I couldn’t consider moving him unless we had something coming back we could pin our hopes on."

Mueller said Wilson is no longer among the top-tier quarterbacks in the NFL, but Seattle can still win with him. Making a deal more complicated is Wilson’s no-trade clause and the possibility that he will want a new contract at some point this year.

"There’s so many variables," Mueller said. "He holds the cards. If he doesn’t want to be traded, he doesn’t have to agree to anything."

Wilson has $51 million left on his deal. If the Seahawks were to move on from him before June 1, they would take a $26 million dead-cap charge, which is significant but not impossible to absorb.

The Rams had $34 million in dead-cap charges last season, including $22.2 million from trading Jared Goff and his contract to the Detroit Lions in a deal for Matthew Stafford.

Whether Carroll wants to acknowledge it publicly or not, the Seahawks are rebuilding, much like when the former USC coach took over a decade ago. And while Wilson might no longer rank among the top five QBs in the game, his trade value will likely not get any higher than it will be this offseason, particularly with several teams desperate for upgrades at quarterback.

The Seahawks could save $11 million with Wilson no longer on the roster. And Carroll needs a talented, young quarterback in lockstep with his belief system for Seattle’s culture, much like Wilson was a decade ago.

The Seahawks have six selections in this year’s draft, including one in the second round, one in the third, two in the fourth, one in the fifth and one in the seventh. The team could use more draft capital for this year and in 2023 as it revamps the roster to chase down the defending Super Bowl champs in the ultra-competitive NFC West.

Even though Wilson got rid of any mention of the Seahawks from his social media, for his part, he has said all the right things.

"My goal is to win more Super Bowls," he said near the end of last season. "And my plan is to win them here. It’s that simple."

And Carroll has downplayed all the rumors about trading his QB.

"The kinds of conversations we have behind the scenes are not in line with the rumors," he told reporters in January. "OK? There you go. Not at all. We’ve been talking. We’ve been together and connected throughout this whole season. And that’s why it’s easy to dismiss those at this time."

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, last year, Wilson’s agent, Mark Rodgers, said his client wanted to remain in Seattle, but if the Seahawks wanted to trade him, he would consider going to the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders or Chicago Bears.

The Cowboys and the Bears appear set at the quarterback position with Dak Prescott and Justin Fields. The Raiders have Derek Carr but a new coach in Josh McDaniels. The Saints need a quarterback, but offensive guru Sean Payton recently stepped down as coach.

Canvassing the league, other teams in flux at the QB position include the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants and Denver Broncos. 

That’s nearly half the NFL.

According to FOX Bet sports trader Dylan Brossman, the Broncos are the most likely team to trade for Wilson, followed by the Steelers and Commanders.

Seahawks GM John Schneider and Carroll are in no hurry to trade Wilson, so they can be deliberate in their approach and wait for the best offer. Schneider passed on legitimate offers from the Bears last season, according to reports.

What Detroit received last year in the trade with the Rams for Stafford would have to be the starting point for the Seahawks to give up Wilson: two first-round selections, a third-round pick and a starting QB.

That said, these are the four teams that make the most sense as trade partners for the Seahawks.

Denver Broncos

Denver moved on from defensive guru Vic Fangio and hired former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett as the team’s head coach. Hackett was a close friend of Aaron Rodgers during his time in Green Bay, so the Mile High City could be headed toward a Hackett-Rodgers reunion.

However, Wilson would be a good second-place prize for the Broncos. 

Wilson has played in a West Coast system his entire NFL career, so the transition to Hackett’s version of the offense wouldn’t be a difficult one. And Wilson would give Denver the ability to compete in a stacked AFC West that includes Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Carr at quarterback.

Las Vegas Raiders

Josh McDaniels would get a quarterback who has won a Super Bowl in Wilson, but in return, he would have to give up a Pro Bowl-caliber QB in Carr. Wilson and his wife, Ciara, have an offseason home in San Diego, a short plane ride from Vegas.

However, the Raiders are reportedly willing to offer Carr a new deal, so perhaps McDaniels believes he already has his long-term answer at QB.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have three first-round selections in this year’s draft and a quarterback who led them to the playoffs in Jalen Hurts. Some have even compared Hurts to a younger version of Wilson. Worth noting: Eagles GM Howie Roseman considered selecting Wilson in the third round of the 2012 draft before Seattle snagged him with the No. 75 pick.

With the addition of Hurts, Carroll could get back to his winning blueprint: a stingy defense, a strong running game that sets up play-action passes to a big receiver such as DK Metcalf and taking care of the football.

Washington Commanders

Like Roseman, then Carolina-coach Ron Rivera considered Wilson as a possible backup (for Cam Newton) in the third round of the 2012 draft but lost out to the Seahawks.

The Commanders have built a stout defense, led by one of the best defensive front fours in the league. But they need more consistency and playmaking ability from the quarterback position. Wilson grew up in nearby Virginia, so Washington would be a homecoming of sorts.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter @eric_d_williams.