Ranking the biggest concerns for each NFC North team in 2021
By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports
There has been no shortage of drama in the old-school "black and blue" division this offseason.
The narratives have highlighted the quarterbacks, as always, but there are a few other issues that might be of concern for the guys pulling the strings and doing the team-building.
This is the sixth of eight deep dives into the divisions around the NFL, with a specific look at potential problems that would keep me up at night if I were GM of each team.
For a look at my analyses of the other divisions:
NFC: South
Now on to the NFC North.
The Lions' lack of franchise success — they're one of four teams that have never appeared in a Super Bowl — is of little or no relevance to the regime that was put in place this past January. Not in a disrespectful way, but they shouldn't care about the Lions’ past.
What is of concern, though, is how the new group adjusts to its new roles. As we know, the NFL can treat those undergoing on-the-job training with a lack of compassion. Just about everybody in the Lions building is settling into a new role, so the question is: Can the learning happen in a timely fashion?
Those in first-time positions include GM Brad Holmes, who was a college scouting director with the Rams, and head coach Dan Campbell, who as an assistant coach with the Saints never reached coordinator status. They, along with new coordinators Aaron Glenn (defense) and Anthony Lynn (offense), will be adjusting to their new responsibilities.
Throw in quarterback Jared Goff, who was traded away by the team that drafted him No. 1 overall, and first-round pick Penei Sewell, who hasn’t played football since 2019 — and that was at a different position. Sewell played left tackle at Oregon in 2019 and started at right tackle last week.
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Add it all up, and there's a pot full of unknowns in the Lions camp for 2021.
For as big and tough as Campbell would like this team to be, the reality is that coaches have to install systems players believe in. You’re not going to win games by beating people up and "biting kneecaps" on a consistent basis in the NFL. This installation under normal circumstances is a process that takes time and comes with a learning curve.
On the personnel side, I worry about the lack of perimeter options that would allow the Lions to have even an average passing game. Goff will hold the ball, he will take sacks, and his decision-making will be challenged. The receivers' lack of ability to separate from tight coverage is an issue. Their overall skill and health history would also keep me awake at night.
Is it possible for the Lions to improve? Yes, I just think it’s a big ask at this stage. The strength of their offense is the offensive line. I know Lynn will want to rely on running the ball to score points, but Detroit will eventually have to spread the field.
Every team says it wants to run the ball, but few can do it with precision and consistency without a passing game to keep numbers out of the box. This could be problematic for the Lions.
The two new additions on defense should help: DE Michael Brockers, acquired in a trade with the Rams, and former Saints ILB Alex Anzalone are good players. Still, I’m worried about this team being able to pressure the passer enough to get the defense off the field on third downs. The Lions pressured the passer a league-low 17.5% of the time last season.
A team has no chance with this little pressure, and the Lions' defense will wear down quickly.
The uncertainty throughout the organization just might be too much to overcome in 2021. I really like the people the Lions have brought in. The character and heart of their new staff might win them a couple of games, but failing forward fast might be their best plan of attack for this season.
I will be watching to see how this group gets the roster to play beyond its talent level. Here is where the Lions' recent past is relevant: Five wins is what they had in 2020, and that seems like a pretty good goal this season.
Look for more sleepless nights in Motown before this organization turns the corner.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins seems to be the most polarizing member of the jigsaw puzzle that is the Minnesota Vikings, and his decision to not get vaccinated for COVID-19 has generated a lot of headlines. It has also created hurdles that make it more difficult for the Vikings, as a team, from a protocol standpoint.
If I’m Vikings GM Rick Spielman, the last thing I need is something else that potentially divides the locker room. We found out this week that the Atlanta Falcons are the first NFL team to become 100% vaccinated. No politics were involved. Everyone did what they thought was best for the team.
Cousins seems more willing to build a bubble around himself than comply with what might be best for the team. You feel the frustration in coach Mike Zimmer’s tone every time he steps in front of the microphone. Non-vaccinated players follow different rules and guidelines and stand to miss more time if they test positive.
If Cousins doesn’t relent, it will hang over this franchise every day of the season like a giant cloud. Zimmer and Spielman will wonder constantly whether they'll have their QB on a given week or not.
As far as the roster goes, the Vikings made no additions of importance on offense. Apparently, they are willing to ride with the group that was 11th in points per game last season.
Cousins tied his career high with 13 interceptions last season, but he also had a career-high 35 touchdown passes. Go figure. His numbers are equally as frustrating as his quality of play overall. At some point, the Vikings will move on.
I do not think that will be with this year’s fan/media darling, QB Kellen Mond, selected in the third round of the draft. I don't see Mond as the answer as much as I do an option to get out of the rut the Vikings are in at QB. After studying film in preparation for the draft, I believe the former Texas A&M star has limitations that will be difficult to overcome.
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Last season, what mostly kept the Vikings' decision-makers up at night was a defense that lost its mojo. Minnesota returns DE Danielle Hunter and OLB Anthony Barr after both missed the 2020 season, and the addition of DT Dalvin Tomlinson should make for more restful nights in 2021.
Zimmer, a longtime DC, was embarrassed by his team’s defensive performance last season and took some flak for it. The Vikings were 29th in total defense and ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in QB pressures.
I believe those numbers will improve. I question, however, the addition of FS Xavier Woods, who comes from Dallas and a historically bad situation. When we last saw Woods, he put forth an inconsistent effort to tackle, to pursue and to lead.
As they say, the film does not lie. The risky call to bring in someone lacking in accountability would concern me as a team-builder in Minnesota. I just don’t see enough upside to outweigh the risk in this situation.
Time will tell, but Woods’ performance — and the team’s reaction to it — could be combustible if history repeats itself. This should be a team competing for a playoff spot, nonetheless.
It has been a long, rocky, curvy, hilly road for first-time GM Ryan Pace, now on his second coach, his fourth offensive coordinator and his fourth (soon-to-be fifth) quarterback, all since 2015.
We all know the drill: Ryan and head coach Matt Nagy like their team, and they believe they are on the verge of being good. Based on that belief, they signed caretaker QB Andy Dalton this offseason to just not screw it up. My guess is they told him he’d be the starter, and this week, Dalton stated that it's his time right now.
Of course, Mike Glennon said something similar in 2017, and he started four games before being replaced by Mitchell Trubisky. Both of them are now backups for other teams.
In the 2021 NFL Draft, a scenario presented itself for the Bears to acquire a QB nobody thought would be there for them. They pulled off a deal to get Justin Fields and should be applauded for it. I had Fields rated as my third-best QB behind Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, the first two picks in the draft. Fields is a starting QB in the NFL in my opinion.
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Now, Nagy has gone out of his way to say that Dalton will still be the starter, and this is where my worries start. It has been only one week, but Fields looks to be a lot further along the learning curve than was previously thought.
If I’m Pace, I’m worried that the film, after three weeks (I am projecting now), will continue to show that it doesn’t matter what Nagy says. The players know who the best players are, and when preseason is over, it will be evident who should start Week 1.
If the current trend continues for Fields and Nagy sticks to his guns to start Dalton, the coach will lose much-needed credibility in the locker room. That's not a great position to be in when you're fighting for your job.
And you couldn’t argue with the criticism. Nagy would have QB2 (Dalton) and QB3 (Nick Foles) on his team, both of whom he deemed starter-quality, yet neither of whom can carry the new kid’s keys.
The well-planned narrative of the Bears' front office has been turned upside down, and I’m worried for them if they don’t recalculate.
I’m also worried about this offensive line being able to protect whomever is standing in the pocket. The injury bug has already hit the Bears at linebacker, but second-round pick OT Teven Jenkins missing significant time due to back surgery is a concern for the offense as a whole. This group needs time together.
Signing former Eagles OT Jason Peters might make sense on paper, but playing tackle already sent him into retirement once, and he is far better suited to play guard at this point in his career. The move smacks of desperation.
It’s really important that this line get reps in the preseason in both the run and pass game. Otherwise, it's not going to matter who plays QB. But if the QB decision is close, the younger, more athletic player might make more sense.
The anxiety on offense is balanced by a strong feeling about the defense. Small changes in the secondary are the only thing I don’t feel great about. However, the Bears’ front seven is solid enough that this unit should still be one of the top-five defenses in the league, capable of winning games on their own.
With regard to who plays QB, I think the decision-makers have to stay out of the way and let the film speak for itself. I think it will sort itself out after two more weeks.
The runners-up in the NFC in 2020 have had one of the most tumultuous offseasons I can remember. From the moment QB Aaron Rodgers put the entire organization on blast in the locker room after the loss to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship Game, the drama has continued.
I am very glad to not be in GM Brian Gutekunst’s shoes. Once camp started, he was hopeful this would all be behind him. No such luck, and I think his sleepless nights are going to continue until the next offseason. Now, Rodgers has become — in his own mind, at least — the designated player voice to the front office.
(I seriously doubt that Rodgers is coming in at 6 a.m. to study film with the pro scouts in order to have a complete, big-picture comparison on all player-addition options before giving his opinion. Just sayin'.)
Every front-office move now will be accompanied by a response from the media to get Rodgers’ views. For the powers that be, this is going to get really old, really fast. Maybe that was Rodgers’ plan all along: Push the Packers into moving him.
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This could turn into a full-fledged, three-ring circus, and the scary thing is there is nothing the Packers can do about it.
Another worry I'd have, if I were Gutekunst, is the injury to Jordan Love’s shoulder in Week 1 of the preseason. For the record, he was on the field for 28 plays. I’m not as concerned about the specifics of the injury as I am with the reps he’s missing because of it.
Knowing that Rodgers’ future is very much up in the air, Love needs every snap in preseason that he can get. If he can’t hurt the shoulder worse, I might push him to play this week, just to show him that he must be willing to play even when he feels less than 100 percent. That’s the norm for a starting NFL QB, so it’s a box I’d like to have checked before turning over the keys to Love in 2022.
I actually like the Packers roster as a whole. They have playmakers, the best WR in football in Davante Adams and depth across the board on offense. And with OT David Bakhtiari back, they will be more than solid up front.
New defensive coordinator Joe Barry has the biggest challenge. He must find a way to create pressure while giving the secondary a chance to hold up. The Packers have five secondary players they drafted in the first two rounds since 2017.
This group has underachieved in my opinion, and that view must be shared by the Green Bay front office, considering it made a deal this week to bring in another corner. If I were the GM, I would worry about their exposure if Barry has to blitz to create pressure. As we saw last year, corner Kevin King was speed-challenged when left alone on an island by outgoing defensive coordinator Mike Pettine.
This cannot happen if the Packers' defense is to take the next step. I like their personnel up front, but I'll be nervous until we see how they employ the new coordinator’s schemes.
On paper, the Packers are good enough for a Super Bowl run. However, so much of their results will have to do with how their team is managed and how they adjust throughout the season. Sometimes coaches and GMs have to be the "fixers" and make it work with all the personalities and ups and downs of a long season.
This will be a challenging season for the decision-makers within the Packers organization. They can only hope that Rodgers has both feet still planted in Green Bay — and not one out the door already.
Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.