Rams return to Green Bay to learn how new-look offense measures up

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

When the NFL releases its regular-season schedule, coaches around the league will circle a handful of dates with a red pen to denote their importance as "measuring-stick games."

While many coaches will not admit to the practice publicly, some games on the schedule carry more significance than others due to the lessons that will be learned in those contests.

For Sean McVay, the Rams’ Week 12 matchup against the Packers (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App) is significant not only due to the playoff implications for two teams vying for the NFC’s No. 1 seed but also because the last time these contenders met, L.A.'s offensive wizard realized he needed more at the quarterback position.

McVay might downplay the admission to us, but some time during that NFC divisional playoff game in January, he came to the conclusion that Jared Goff had carried the Rams as far as he could. The team needed an upgrade to become a title contender capable of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

See, there is a difference between being good enough to make the Super Bowl and having enough firepower to win it. The Rams fell short in Super Bowl LII, and that loss in February 2019 likely started to cause McVay to look sideways at his former QB1 when comparing him to the elites at the position. 

Those comparisons fueled McVay’s desire to find an upgrade, and the final straw came when the Rams' coach watched his counterpart and former assistant, Matt LaFleur, have all kinds of fun with three-time MVP Aaron Rodgers directing an offense utilizing plays that were also staples in the Rams’ playbook.

The thought of having a five-star talent throwing the ball all over the yard certainly appealed to McVay after he watched Rodgers bring the X's and O's to life with his extraordinary skills as a playmaker.

What could the Rams’ offense achieve without a limited passer and playmaker at quarterback?

How could a more dynamic version of the L.A. offense pose problems for the top teams in the NFL?

Those questions and answers led McVay to do whatever it took to bring Matthew Stafford on board as the Rams’ new starting QB. While it cost the team a couple of first-round picks, a third-round selection and a two-time Pro Bowler (Goff), it will prove well worth the investment if No. 9 takes the Rams to Super Bowl LVI and wins the game in his home stadium.

That’s why this matchup against the Packers likely has been circled on the calendar in McVay’s office. This is a chance for the coach to see how much his squad has improved since its playoff loss 10 months ago and evaluate how his team needs to play to maximize its potential.

The Packers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders who own a win over the NFC’s current No. 1 seed (Cardinals) while exhibiting a playing style built for the postseason.

Green Bay is one of the few teams with a balanced offense, boasting a pair of contrasting running backs (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) playing behind a rock-solid offensive line. That tandem is capable of mauling and mashing defenders at the point of attack. 

They also have an MVP quarterback with "take-over-the-game" skills and a dynamic WR1 (Davante Adams) who is nearly impossible to guard.

With the Packers’ defense rounding into form as an elite unit, the Rams will face a team that can exploit their biggest vulnerabilities.

Remember, this Rams team has been whipped by three physical teams (the Titans, 49ers and Cardinals) intent on beating them up on each side of the ball. 

Based on those losses, the football world views "Team Hollywood" as soft and unable to handle a team that wants to make the game a fistfight in a phone booth.

Despite the Rams’ star power, particularly with OBJ and Von Miller joining a team with Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Stafford, the "soft" perception is becoming reality with each loss.

Observers can debate the importance of physicality and toughness in a pass-happy league, but the NFL is still about dominating the trenches and outhitting opponents. That’s the way the league was built back in the day, and the NFL is still ruled by teams that specialize in physicality and old-school football.

That does not mean elite teams have to operate with the mentality of "three yards and a cloud of dust," but the heavyweights are capable of going toe-to-toe with opponents who want to bang with body blows or haymakers.

From studying the Rams’ tape, it's fair to question their toughness, given how they submitted to the bullies on their schedule. The offensive line in particular has struggled to deal with rugged defensive lines with 300-pounders attacking like grizzly bears at the line of scrimmage.

Part of those struggles can be attributed to the hodgepodge call sheet McVay is featuring to showcase his quarterback while attempting to protect his offensive line. As a traditional drop-back passer with A-plus arm talent, Stafford is at his best in a traditional passing game that operates like a seven-on-seven drill, with the QB throwing the ball from the pocket without play-action.

To take advantage of Stafford's skills, the Rams are operating from more spread and empty formation sets designed to enable Stafford to "catch, rock and throw" while tossing intermediate and deep balls to Cooper Kupp, OBJ, Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson down the field. In addition, the Rams are mixing in quick routes and bubble screens designed to stretch the defense from sideline to sideline.

Although the updated playbook works well for Stafford, the heavy emphasis on drop-back throws exposes the limitations of the Rams’ offensive line. The team’s previous commitment to the movement passing game and play-action passes utilized deception and misdirection to neutralize the pass rush.

Against the Packers, we will have a chance to see if the new Rams’ offense gives them a better chance to win the title. 

Stafford has struggled in recent weeks pushing the ball down the field (43.8% completion rate, 7.8 yards per attempt, 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 68.2 passer rating in Weeks 9-10) after thriving as a deep ball passer (10-plus air yards) in the first eight weeks of the season (56.3% completion rate, 13.8 yards per attempt, 12:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 123.7 passer rating).

The Packers’ defense excels at taking away the deep ball (10-plus air yards), with a 44.3% completion rate (fifth), eight interceptions (tied-fourth) and a 76.3 passer rating (fifth) through 11 games. As a zone-heavy team (473 defensive snaps in zone; eighth-most in NFL) with defenders consistently playing with their eyes on the quarterback, the Packers will test Stafford’s discipline and patience as a passer.

Considering how Goff’s turnovers frustrated McVay, the performance of the Rams’ new QB will be closely scrutinized by the coach to see if the offense has the potential to spark a title run.

On the flip side, McVay needs his defense to play at a championship level against the Packers to alleviate some of the concerns regarding the pass rush, with Miller assisting Donald at the line of scrimmage. The aging edge rusher is no longer the Super Bowl MVP-caliber pass-rusher, but he still has a little juice as a playmaker. The Rams could use that energy to fortify a frontline that ranks 20th in pressure rate (27.5%), per Next Gen Stats.

Rodgers has struggled this season under pressure, as evidenced by his 35.1% completion rate, 4.5 yards per attempt and 47.2 passer rating (Next Gen Stats). That passer rating is 20 points lower than he has had in any other season in the NGS era.

With that in mind, the Rams need to produce a better pressure rate than the 22.1% mark they registered in the NFC divisional loss, as Rodgers completed 21 of 28 passes for 242 yards and two TDs when he did not face pressure in that contest.

McVay and the Rams have marked the Packers game on their calendars due to the playoff implications and progress reports that will be written after this weekend. 

While the players will see the contest as a competitive battle to determine the pecking order in the NFC, McVay will use it to evaluate the team-building maneuvers he has made over the past 10 months.

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.