QB Stock Market Week 18: Brock Purdy Is the Best of Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa

It looks like the MVP race will continue into Week 18, which means that Matthew Stafford’s game against the Arizona Cardinals could cleanse voters’ palettes (from Monday night’s flop against the Atlanta Falcons) as Drake Maye persists.

But man, I want to talk about Malik Willis. And Brock Purdy. And Trevor Lawrence. It has been a year chock-full of surprises at the quarterback position. This week was no exception.

The Stock Market isn’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of a QB’s performance throughout the season. No one — not even Matthew Stafford — is safe at the top. No one — not even Brady Cook — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds most important: What have you done for your team lately?

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Well, it’s over. Riley Leonard will start this week. And daggum it, Rivers’ comeback was pretty fun while it lasted.

Rivers’ Week 17 start against the Jaguars should be his last. I say, "should," because … well, who knows with Old Man Rivers. He could want to extend his health insurance coverage again five years from now after his wife has five more kids. Never say never.

The only game where Rivers’ performance really mattered was the first one — Week 15 against the Seahawks — where the Colts' loss sent their playoff chances careening to 8%. And given the short notice and the shortage of options available to Indy, that outing was competitive and impressive for any backup QB — let alone a 44-year-old high school football coach. As crazy as it sounds, I think starting Rivers for that game was the right decision — given what we’ve seen from his broader body of work.

Rivers couldn’t quite make the playoffs, but I suspect he saved Shane Steichen’s job — which I suspect was the whole idea all along. The cynic in me thinks the Rivers theatrics were as much about PR as they were about football. But the fan in me enjoyed the stinkin' heck out of it.

There’s no quarterback controversy here. So let’s not slip into any conversation that includes the statement: What about trading Jordan Love? That ain’t happening.

But Willis is every bit of a starting quarterback. Coming into the 2022 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans drafted Willis as a third-round pick — a developmental prospect, to be clear. He had the arm. He had the athleticism. But leaving the Liberty Flames (which is a college team, not a CFL one), Willis was an "upside quarterback with special parts of his game, but with no guarantee they will be assembled properly into a finished product," per NFL.com.

The Titans were the worst possible place for him. (The organization that has failed to maximize the talents of a quarter of the league’s starting QBs? Shocker.) But the Packers? Turns out, they were perfect. (The organization that has churned out one Hall of Fame QB after another? Again: shocker.)

Last year, Willis was the perfect game-manager — often accepting his backup role as a guy who could keep his team from losing (rather than going out and trying to win it). This year, we’re seeing something different. We’re seeing a guy who's doing the job he wants (QB1) rather than settling for the job he has (QB2).

The intrigue with Willis is about where he could go next. Let’s make a few connections.

How about the Arizona Cardinals?

GM Monti Ossenfort was the Titans’ director of player personnel when Tennessee drafted Willis.

How about the Miami Dolphins?

Coach Mike McDaniel was an assistant on the Falcons for two years with Matt LaFleur. Their offenses have major overlap.

How about wherever Robert Saleh lands?

Saleh is the 49ers defensive coordinator and was once the New York Jets head coach. And while his Jets tenure ended like every other Jets coach’s tenure, he has since adjudicated himself with strong work in San Francisco. (And the Jets’ dumpster fire burns brighter than ever.) Saleh could take over an organization and bring Willis along to run a Shanahan-style offense.

Somebody is going to sign him to a multiyear deal. We might have a good sense — as early as February during the combine — which team that’ll be.

You never know when he’s going to put his foot on the gas.

You never know when he’s going to take it off.

Both things abruptly happened this past Saturday when Stroud faced the Los Angeles Chargers. He started the day with a pair of long touchdowns — both reflecting his considerable arm talent. And coincidentally, those massive plays were to two different rookies: Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Houston drafted them to fix their offensive ailments. 

On those two plays, you could safely say the rookies were doing what they’d been selected to do.

But then Stroud’s impressive play immediately halted. He went from being a confident world-beater to a young and inexperienced quarterback who looked overwhelmed at what the Chargers were doing on defense. His interceptions were about as bad as it gets, with the QB throwing the ball directly to a Chargers defender … in both instances.

There were a few things that seemed notable from the performance — namely that he struggled against man coverage (1 of 8 for 15 yards and an interception). But that didn’t wholly explain the sheer cliff over which Stroud’s play declined.

Stroud is trapped in the QB hellscape that Trevor Lawrence just escaped. This is where QBs skate along on their talent — but fail to cut off the anchor of inconsistency. Until Stroud and DeMeco Ryans can figure out what’s leading to these negative plays — is it arm arrogance? Is it technique? Is it a lack of preparation? — he’s going to be a middling QB who helps his team win as often as he hurts them.

When Kyler Murray came into the NFL, evaluators dreamed he’d become what Purdy was this past Sunday night — and who Purdy has been for the past four weeks.

Purdy looked like the Real Roadrunner on the team’s go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter, with elite elusiveness, scrambling and awareness. It wasn’t just that he embarrassed the Bears’ defensive linemen in open space. It was that Purdy used his mobility to draw linebacker Tremaine Edmunds out of coverage on Kyle Juszczyk, which made for a simple throw to the fullback in the front corner of the end zone.

That’s the part of Murray’s game that was natural to him. That’s the part of Purdy’s game that is new — and impressive to watch. He didn’t have tight end George Kittle or left tackle Trent Williams for virtually the entire night against Chicago. But Purdy made do — as he has all year (and as he failed to do for most of last year).

The part of Purdy’s game that’s natural to him (and not to Murray) is what we saw on the final touchdown. It was a matter of doing everything right leading up to the throw, from pre-snap recognition to eye discipline to confidence in timing. Purdy hit a blind throw (throwing to a receiver out of the corner of the QB’s eye and before that receiver gets open) as well as 2023 Tua Tagovailoa. And that might seem like a slight, but remember, Tua was once an elite timing-based passer. That was Tua’s superpower before his game fell apart.

So you’re sitting there and you’re seeing me compare Purdy to … Kyler Murray … and Tua Tagovailoa? And you’re thinking: What are we doing, Henry?!

Well, those are two incomplete players, whose limited skill sets have made them one-dimensional and, ultimately, obsolete to their respective teams. Because Purdy has combined the strengths of both players — two special superpowers for one QB — he has made himself completely essential to his team. His EPA-per-play is first in the NFL at 0.33, above analytics darlings like Drake Maye and Jordan Love.

The 49ers will be free to trade Mac Jones for a pick this offseason, because the 49ers should have full confidence in Purdy, who has justified his contract and is capable of taking this team deep into the postseason. Why? Because he can now beat defenses in a multitude of ways. Like Tua plus Kyler. Which is all to say that he plays like Brock.

For stretches of Lawrence’s film, I find myself getting bored.

It’s terrific. 

It’s the best thing that’s happened to him.

His process is fundamentally sound. Every pass isn’t a lightning rod for conversation — or a Rorschach test for your preexisting bias about Lawrence. No, there’s really no arguing over the quality of his play. Get a load of this throw to Jakobi Meyers.

Lawrence is good. He’s very good.

Does he make mistakes? Sure. Every QB does. And Sunday was no exception, with Lawrence throwing an interception. He made a fine decision on a red zone throw to Parker Washington with a subpar piece of execution — putting the ball low and inside so it was where only the cornerback could get it. But it was his first turnover-worthy play since Week 12, per PFF.

First-year coach Liam Coen is creating awesome opportunities for Lawrence in the passing game. Meyers is … not dropping the football. And that was the first step of engaging this offense. Now, we’re seeing what Washington and tight end Brenton Strange can do. It’s fair to wonder whether wideout Brian Thomas might fade into anonymity as the team’s fourth option in the passing game during the playoffs. It’s fair to wonder whether Thomas has already faded into anonymity in this offense. And no one is talking about it (or Travis Hunter’s brutal rookie season), because everything else has been so functional. These examples of dysfunction seem like a non-story.

So as the Colts crumble and Stroud and the Texans look too inconsistent to be dangerous in the postseason, Lawrence has yet again helped the Jaguars move into legitimacy. This time, it’s fair to think it’s for real.

Here are some staggering numbers from Maye’s performance in Week 17:

1. He recorded a 99.8 QBR, the highest ever recorded in NFL history.
2. He had an 88% success rate, the highest mark for any QB with a minimum of 15 dropbacks since 2000, per TruMedia.
3. He was the first player in NFL history to complete 90% of his passes while throwing for 250 yards and five TDs in a single game.
4. He had 36 expected points added, the highest total of any QB this week — far above Joe Burrow (22.2) and Brock Purdy (19.3).
5. He had a 100% adjusted completion percentage, per PFF.

But of course, I’ve withheld the necessary context: Maye was playing the New York Jets.

There’s more necessary context: His left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson were out with injuries. The Patriots’ top perimeter threats, Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte, were also out. And if you’re rolling your eyes at the idea that these two relatively anonymous receivers are essential pieces, then you’ll have to reconcile with the fact that they are to the 2025 Patriots. Which is even more reason to support Maye’s MVP campaign. Maye has lifted all his pass-catchers to the point where Hollins and Boutte were playing at a really high level. Despite all that adversity this past Sunday, Maye threw touchdowns to five different receivers, including Efton Chism, an undrafted rookie out of Eastern Washington.

I previously thought it was going to be hard for Maye to win MVP without a "statement game" — particularly when Matthew Stafford’s counting stats are better. But Stafford badly blew his lead during his meltdown against Atlanta on Monday night.

Maye’s case is still complicated. His biggest wins this year came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (maybe not a playoff team) and the Baltimore Ravens (who didn’t have Lamar and also are maybe not a playoff team) and the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 (who got revenge with a comeback win in Week 15). Yet, if you look at advanced stats and the game film, Maye has been in his own tier. But there are just enough strikes against him for Stafford to earn the MVP selection, in part because he’s a household name.

I like Maye.

But let’s think past the regular season for a moment, because I think the MVP discussion serves as fuel for a more forward-looking conversation.

Maye and the Patriots have beaten up on lesser teams all year. But the 23-year-old QB seems to be on the verge of rising to power in the AFC — and he has the potential to supplant Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and even Patrick Mahomes as the conference’s (and the NFL’s) best quarterback. To do that, he’ll have to deliver three or four statement games.

Can he do that this postseason?

In a region that expects greatness, Maye has yet to show us how much he possesses.

That’s what comes next.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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