QB Stock Market Week 15: Why is Patrick Mahomes making everything so difficult?

When can you trust a QB's development?

Last season, for example, we thought we were witnessing Jordan Love's arrival. But this year, he has been inconsistent. Last year, we thought we were witnessing Bryce Young's collapse. And this year — particularly over the past five games — we've seen the young quarterback come back in a way we've never really seen from a No. 1 overall pick. He's playing better than C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the sport.

When can we trust our eyes that Kyler Murray is too inconsistent to be taken seriously as the head of a playoff contender — let alone a Super Bowl contender? And when can we trust our eyes that Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time?

I wish I had an answer. But it's a testament to the consistency of a guy like Matthew Stafford, who you could argue has been the same player week in, week out and season in, season out. If anything, he's the fine wine of quarterbacking.

Welcome back to the QB Stock Market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately? 

Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (↔)
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (↔)
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (↔)
4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (↔)
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (↔)

This feels like an interesting tipping point for Herbert, where he's making strides as the leader of a franchise — and not just a thrower of footballs.

Sure, that's a credit to Jim Harbaugh. But it's also a credit to Herbert himself.

It might seem strange to compliment him after the Chargers' second loss of the season to the Chiefs. But I didn't even think they'd be relevant in the playoff picture at this point — let alone sitting comfortably in a wild-card spot. And while J.K. Dobbins had a resurgent year statistically, Herbert has been more to thank for the Chargers' success. This year, Herbert has turned rookie Ladd McConkey into a WR1 while dragging along Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer into relevance. 

Against the Chiefs, L.A. clearly missed Dobbins and McConkey. But the Chargers also missed Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. Heck, they even missed Mike Williams. Herbert hasn't been the most prolific QB this year, but he is exceeding what I thought was possible for this offense.

6. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (⬆️ 3)
7. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (⬆️ 3)
8. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬇️ 2)

With Mahomes, you really have to ask yourself what you want in a quarterback.

Because if the answer is, "a winner," then you could argue that I have him in the wrong spot. He isn't to thank for all of the Chiefs' wins. The defense won the game in Week 2 against the Bengals (and Week 3 against the Falcons … and also probably in Week 4 against the Chargers). The special teams unit blocked a field goal in Week 10 against the Broncos. But there are plenty of examples this year of Mahomes taking control of the game, like he did against the Chargers. He burned six minutes of clock to conclude a drive at a spot where even kicker Matthew Wright (who?!) could clang a ball past the upright for a win.

But the reason why I have him in this position (and not somewhere between one and three) is a question that's been bugging me:

Why can't he turn it on earlier? Why must every game come to the fourth quarter? A 2-minute drill? The final play?

You can't really argue with the results — for now. It's possible that the Chiefs continue this high-wire act in the postseason — we’ve seen almost nothing that tells us otherwise, after all. But for a guy whose talent is transcendent — and who could probably help the Chiefs win by more than one possession, if not a blowout — Mahomes currently only seems to play well when he absolutely has to. 

Only he can get away with that. Only he can play down to his opponents and still come away looking like one of the greats. Mahomes is one of a kind.

9. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (⬆️ 3)

Sometimes I wonder if the game is still moving fast for Love.

Consider last Thursday against the Lions: On passes under 2.5 seconds from the snap, Love was 4 of 7 for 44 yards and a touchdown. On passes 2.5+, he was 8 of 13 for 162 yards. It seems like he needs ample time to think about what he's seeing — and even then, all he realizes is that the defense fooled him. It was clear how much the Lions' pressure impacted Love. Detroit went extremely aggressive and blitzed him 63% of snaps, and it generated a pressure rate of 37.5. In those situations, Love completed just 3 of 7 for 75 yards.

Love's contract told us something incorrect about who he is. 

All that money spoke to the Packers QB being in the elite tier, his talent developed to where he could lead a championship run. But I'm not so sure that's where he's at. The loss to the Lions — even with a close scoreline — spoke to how he's still struggling to manage close games. But don't despair, Packers fans, because he might just be a year or two from being in the conversation with Mahomes, Allen and Jackson. 

There are throws and sequences that make me genuinely believe he can be that good.

10. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (⬆️ 4)

I know I already said he's like the fine wine of quarterbacking. But he is also sort of the Larry Fitzgerald of quarterbacking.

Neither player was the icon at his position during his peak. Fitz spent his career overshadowed by the likes of Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Julio Jones and even DeAndre Hopkins. But Fitz kept developing as a receiver into his 30s, which was how he managed to enjoy a resurgence near the end of his career. I genuinely believe Stafford keeps getting better. He has to contend with Father Time (just like Fitz did), and Stafford's mobility and arm strength have both declined. But that hasn't mattered because of how well Stafford knows the game. And surely, playing for coach Sean McVay has only made Stafford smarter. Certainly, their combined intellect has made for a truly transcendent offense to watch.

In the Not-For-Long NFL, Stafford has something you don't often see: wisdom.

His intellectual intensity and curiosity are what this generation of QBs should aspire toward. Mahomes, Allen, Jackson — they are already special. But if they can intellectually mature in the fashion Stafford has, which Tom Brady once referred to as having "the answers to the test," they could remain elite well into their 30s — and compete for more titles in the process, not unlike Stafford.

11. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (⬇️ 3)
12. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (⬆️ 1)
13. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (⬇️ 6)

Against Bryce Young, Hurts looked a little bit like … Bryce Young. And not this revitalized version that's turned the Panthers into a plucky organization. I'm talking about the version of Young that got benched. Hurts was so lost and hesitant that A.J. Brown spoke out after the game.

The star receiver was asked what the Eagles needed to improve on.

"Passing," he said, via 94WIP.com.

If you're skeptical that's a shot at Hurts, watch the film.

Brown could've gone off for 100-plus yards and two touchdowns if Hurts had pulled the trigger in Brown's direction. The stats don't look terrible, because of how much Hurts scored. He finished 14 of 21 for 108 yards and two touchdowns with eight carries for 59 yards and a touchdown. But the Panthers kept this game tight, because of Hurts' shortcomings.

Where exactly?

Passing.

We've seen this a few times this year. It was a bigger narrative when Hurts was turning the ball over — and at least that didn't become an issue on Sunday. (Otherwise, the Eagles probably would've lost.) I've said it before, I'll say it again: I believe this Philly team is fragile. There's just something not right about what's going on with Hurts this year, with inconsistencies that are hard to understand for a QB who has been otherwise so good in his career.

14. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬇️ 3)
15. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (⬆️ 4)
16. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (⬇️ 1)
17. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (⬆️ 4)
18. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (⬇️ 2)
19. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (⬇️ 1)
20. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (↔)
21. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬇️ 4)

It's an oversimplification to say Kyler is more fantasy football quarterback than NFL quarterback. But I found myself thinking that as I watched his film from this week in a lopsided loss to the Seahawks that likely cast the Cardinals into postseason irrelevance.

Maybe we can get back to the question I asked about Mahomes: What do you want in a quarterback? 

Murray has arm, speed and elusiveness. He'll put up numbers that will impress. But there's nothing smooth about his performances at a macro level.

Just look at his game against Seattle, when he threw a nasty touchdown — a 41-yarder to Michael Wilson — followed by an interception on each of the next two throws. Back to back. 

The Cardinals aren't good enough to overcome a pair of turnovers. Murray can't afford to put his team in that kind of hole. Seattle coasted to victory. 

So then, let's touch on the matter of hype — like I discussed when it came to Herbert. Perhaps Murray is overhyped. He's so much fun to watch. He might be one of the more entertaining quarterbacks in the NFL. But maybe Kyler could stand to be a bit more boring. If the Cardinals want to finally win something meaningful (Murray bombed in the lone postseason appearance of his career), they'll need their star QB to develop in the more nuanced parts of the position.

22. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (↔)
23. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (↔)
24. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (↔)

Don't fall for what Winston is doing for the Browns. This is exactly what happened to Joe Flacco. Winston's strong play — at least statistically — is a product of coach Kevin Stefanski. It's not about Winston getting his groove back.

Don't get me wrong: I'm loving it. Winston is silly. He's fun. And for a losing team that has had one of the more depressing years (and one of the more depressing histories), Winston is a nice personality to get through yet another transition. And because of Deshaun Watson's albatross of a contract, perhaps Winston should stick around for another year while the Browns run out the clock until they can cut Watson. But the marriage between Winston and the Browns is born out necessity, with Stefanski making the most of it.

What I'd really like to see: Cam Ward on the Browns. Carry three QBs in 2025. And maybe Cleveland will have some hope in 2026. Yes, that's the sad reality for the Browns. It's gonna be bad for at least another year.

25. Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (↔)
26. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬆️ 4)
27. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (⬇️ 1)
28. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (⬆️ 1)
29. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (⬇️ 1)
30. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (⬆️ 1)
31. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (↔)
32. Drew Lock, New York Giants (↔)

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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