QB Stock Market Week 14: Joe Burrow deserves better; Caleb Williams knows better

Josh Allen wasn’t supposed to be able to eclipse Lamar Jackson for MVP.

Just look at the numbers Jackson is putting up: 3,290 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, three interceptions, 678 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He’s on pace to eclipse his total yardage and total touchdowns from last season when he won MVP.

Allen’s statistics don’t compare. But the performances do. Allen is the key cog on a team that’s playing consummate complementary football — with the offense, defense and special teams co-conspiring against their opponents. It’s a joy to watch. And so it’s a credit to coach Sean McDermott as much as Allen that the QB is breaking away as the front-runner for MVP.

Fittingly, after their win over the 49ers, Allen and McDermott — two grown men — laid in the inches of powder to make snow angels together. They’re like family. 

Welcome back to the QB Stock Market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately? 

Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (↔)
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (↔)
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (↔)

At this point, there’s really just one story on the field with Burrow. He’s doing everything he can to help the Bengals win games — and, still, they’re not. Most of the fault falls on the defense, even if Burrow is unwilling to say it.

Off the field? Burrow seems to be changing ever so slightly.

As the season spirals out of his control — a rarity for a quarterback of Burrow’s caliber — he is growing more quiet, reserved and calculated in all his answers. He honestly looks like the *internal screaming* meme. He fielded a question about whether he’s resigned to the Bengals missing the playoffs. And he said: "Playoffs — I mean, furthest thing from my mind."

What is on his mind, as noted by CLNS’s Mike Petraglia, might be the offseason.

"I would say we need to change a lot of things this year. We haven’t been good enough to win games, so it starts with your division," Burrow said after Sunday’s 44-38 loss to Pittsburgh.

It’s a barely perceptible shot at the Bengals’ front office. It’s the kind of comment Burrow has spent weeks not making. And it’s clear he’s been as strategic as possible in taking accountability (and avoiding pointing fingers). But after another three-touchdown, 300-yard performance, Burrow let that one word slip: "Change."

Will the Bengals listen?

4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (⬆️ 3)
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (⬇️ 1)
6. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬆️ 2)
7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (⬇️ 2)
8. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (⬆️ 1)
9. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (⬆️ 3)

I like the way Darnold has rediscovered an equilibrium for risk management.

That’s what his strength as the Vikings quarterback is all about. There were two games where he lost it — and against the Jaguars, Darnold looked lost forever. It was the wrong kind of blast from the past to when he played for the Jets or Panthers, where he had seasons when he threw more interceptions than touchdowns.

This week, Darnold never lost composure — even when trailing — and delivered mostly pedestrian throws with just enough big-time shots downfield.

"He’s pushed the ball around the field and we’ve been really explosive with him at the helm," O’Connell said last month. "Clearly, there’s been some times where we’ve maybe been too aggressive and had some decisions backfire from a standpoint of turnovers — but not without having some real moments of growth."

Let’s not overcomplicate things with Darnold: He can play quarterback at an NFL level. He can operate Kevin O’Connell’s system and distribute the ball to the team’s excellent playmakers (sometimes excluding Jordan Addison, who is too often the odd man out).

He can’t carry this team to a Super Bowl. But he can get them there. And, maybe, the other 52 players can win it with him.

10. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (⬆️ 6)
11. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬆️ 3)

This game could be just what Daniels needed to salvage the end of his season — and Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. The Commanders have a 71% chance of making the postseason, per Next Gen Stats, and Jayden Daniels remains the odds-on favorite for OROY (-250).

Make no mistake, the Titans are a terrible defense. It was a quarterback’s dream: holes in the zone, loose man and altogether busted coverage. But the same should’ve been true against the Cowboys the previous week and Daniels struggled. Not this past week. Daniels was dominant.

This is the guy we saw at the beginning of the season. Back then, he seemed to have a shot at unseating the Eagles in the division. The Commanders will have a hard road in the postseason, and they can really only expect to win games in January with Daniels playing like he did against the Titans.

12. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (⬆️ 7)
13. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (⬇️ 7)
14. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (⬇️ 1)
15. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (↔)
16. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (⬇️ 6)
17. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬇️ 6)
18. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (⬆️ 1)

It’s just play after play of shaking my head and saying wow. 

Almost everything Williams does is extra.

Extreme highs. Wow.

Extreme lows. Wow.

(It’s about to get very Owen Wilson up in here.)

Against the Lions, Williams struggled for the entirety of the first half: the Wonky Williams show. But things clicked in that second half, and Wonderful Williams finally made an appearance.

There was one play in particular that seemed to wake up the Bears. On third-and-14, Williams saw no one was open and escaped the pocket. He seemed to consider scrambling but — keeping his eyes disciplined downfield — he found Keenan Allen for 16 yards with an off-platform bullet of a throw. SMH. Wow.

A moment later, Williams made one of the most polished pocket plays I’ve seen him make, waiting for Allen to get open downfield and hitting the receiver at just the right flash for a long touchdown.

Again, wow.

Then came the final drive. SMH. Wow, what a mess.

Williams was so urgent to win the game that he lost it for Chicago. He refused to throw the ball away and held the ball way too long, taking three sacks for 18 yards on that final drive. He was late and incomplete on a slant to Allen, who was open on third-and-6 with one minute left. Williams missed D.J. Moore on the next passing play that could’ve been a touchdown. 

After his final sack, the Bears let 30 seconds bleed off the clock before running a panicked play. And while Matt Eberflus took the blame (and got fired), Williams also could have called time out. I don’t care that he’s a rookie — every QB knows to stop the clock there. He appeared to compound the mistake by changing the final play (which bled more time) to take a shot at the end zone on a double move to Rome Odunze — which, in a vacuum, wasn’t a bad ball or play choice — but fell incomplete and ran the clock out on third down. It was an all-or-nothing decision that came from hubris, because it ultimately killed Chicago's chances of a game-tying field goal.

It was unsettling to see so many rookie mistakes packed into the most important drive of the game. The statistics look good. But it’s fair to grade this performance as incomplete.

19. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (⬇️ 6)
20. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (⬇️ 3)
21. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (↔)
22. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (⬆️ 3)
23. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (⬆️ 1)

When the Patriots drafted Maye, executive Eliot Wolff said he liked the way the QB elevated his supporting cast at UNC. It was a nice way of saying the Tar Heels were short on talented players and coaches. (UNC parted ways with coach Mack Brown last week.) And despite the lackluster unit, Maye ended up a top pick.

A lot of that is still true. New England is currently lacking in talent among the players and experience within the coaching ranks.

And yet Maye looks damn good.

In the first half against the Colts this week, the Patriots had five penalties for 69 yards. And still, the QB managed to put up 16 points. He was 17 of 20 for 169 yards and a touchdown. He added a 41-yard carry. That first half felt emblematic of how Maye upgraded New England’s quarterback situation. In the post-Tom Brady era of Cam Newton and Mac Jones, the Patriots would commit a penalty and it was a death knell for that drive. It seemed impossible for New England to overcome its mistakes. With Maye, that’s not the case. Because he is an explosive playmaker — with athleticism to exploit running windows and arm strength to make tight-window throws — he can pick up big plays at any given moment. 

I’m not here to crown Maye as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. I’m not promising he’s going to make the Pats Super Bowl contenders again. But I’ll say this: I like Maye’s development. I like the way he has continued to trend upward. And I think — if he can figure out how to avoid turnovers, particularly in gotta-have-it situations — he should someday be an elite QB.

24. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (⬆️ 2)
25. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (new)
26. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (⬇️ 6)
27. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (⬇️ 2)
28. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (⬇️ 6)
29. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (⬇️ 6)

Does this feel to anyone like the beginning of Carr’s career as a backup?

I feel like I’ve seen what’s happening to Carr before. And I feel like I know where the story is going. It’s steamrolling directly toward QB2.

Yes, his circumstances have stunk, whether it was losing Rashid Shaheed to a season-ending injury or the team firing coach Dennis Allen. But Carr can’t get much done with a lackluster Saints unit. His EPA this year is 26.7 (12th in NFL). His stats are perfectly fine. There’s nothing to hate. There’s also not a lot to like. He simply picked the wrong destination in free agency — and the decision (mixed with bad luck) is sinking his career.

So, here are two scenarios for Carr’s future:

A) This offseason, the Saints can get out of Carr’s contract. Let’s just say they cut Carr and accept his dead cap hit. Carr becomes a free agent again and elects to sign with a team like the New York Giants (or the New York Jets, if Aaron Rodgers retires). The Giants then draft a QB with their first-round pick. Carr would eventually lose that competition, whether it’s Week 1 or Week 7. And that would begin his career as a journeyman backup.

B) The Saints can keep Carr in place as QB1 while they draft and develop a rookie. So, let's say they take a QB in Round 1. But again, by midseason at the latest, that QB would probably be ready to take over, and the Saints will be itching to see what they have in their top pick. They would cut a 35-year-old Carr by 2026 when — barring a massive season in 2025 — he’d sign somewhere as a backup.

30. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬇️ 3)
31. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (⬇️ 1)
32. Drew Lock, New York Giants (new)

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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