QB Stock Market Week 13: Time to sell C.J. Stroud? Buy Bryce Young?
It's the time of the year when hopes are realized — and dashed.
The Houston Texans and Washington Commanders are trending toward the latter category, in part due to a disappointing streak of games from their young quarterbacks.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are surging, thanks to the strong and (to different degrees) revitalized play from their veteran signal-callers.
The path to the playoffs is all about post-Thanksgiving play. And, as usual, the QBs will be the determining factor for basically every team.
Welcome back to the QB Stock Market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately?
Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (↔)
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (↔)
Watching Lamar and the Ravens beat the Chargers, I found myself wondering what Ladd McConkey would look like in the Baltimore offense. He is everything (that I suspect) the Ravens wanted Zay Flowers to be. They're both slot players with the versatility to play outside. But McConkey is already more consistent at beating zone and man coverage. McConkey already runs routes that allow Justin Herbert to throw with trust and anticipation. Meanwhile, Flowers struggled to get open against the Chargers cornerbacks.
That's why the Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson. They hoped to find reliability. He's not there yet. In fact, he's so far from there that it's fair to wonder whether the trade is a bust. Johnson has recorded just one reception in four games. He has run 17 routes in said games with five targets and one catch. And get this: He has -63 reception yards over expected.
But here I am, crying over spilled sweat.
Lamar rolls on. He leads the NFL in passing yards (3,053) and is tied for No. 1 in passing touchdowns (27).
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (↔)
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (↔)
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (↔)
6. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (⬆️ 2)
Tua made a habit of beating up Bill Belichick, against whom the Dolphins QB was 6-0. But this was a whole different level of dominance against Belichick's replacement, Jerod Mayo. By halftime, Tagovailoa had three passing touchdowns and a 24-0 lead. Tua finished the day with a 72.5 completion percentage, 317 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Tua's health is and will likely always be a concern. It's a big reason why the Dolphins have such long odds to make the playoffs. (Currently, they have a 15% chance, per Next Gen Stats.) Because he was gone, the Dolphins fell into a hole they likely can't climb out.
But since his return from his latest concussion, he has been back to his incisive play, with the offense — perhaps for the first time in Tua's career — experiencing sustained success without major production from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Neither WR has been a world-beater this year. But with tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De'Von Achane stepping into prominent roles, the Dolphins have made it work on offense. And really, it's Tua who is making this work.
His absence and return — yet again — reminded us just how valuable he is to this offense. It's like this every time. The Dolphins cannot function without him. It's a testament to his quality.
7. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (⬇️ 1)
8. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬆️ 3)
9. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (⬆️ 3)
I'm not much of a golfer, but I know a thing about the UBE — a shot that's ugly but effective. For me, it's a low line drive off the tee. No, it doesn't have a pretty trajectory. But it gets the yardage I need to keep from falling behind.
That's Geno: the UBE. Ugly But Effective.
Against the Cardinals this past week, he made clutch plays at the right times and avoided making mistakes at the wrong ones. The week before versus the 49ers, he lumbered into the end zone for a game-winning touchdown. And that's the style of conservative play that has suited both Smith and coach Mike Macdonald this year. It's the style of play that has quietly put him second in passing yards (3,035) behind Lamar.
It's OK that it often looks ugly. It's a credit to Smith that he's come this far as a game-manager. Smith's inconsistent stat lines are passable because he was 9-8 last year and he's 6-5 this year. And with his special group of skill players and an elite defense, Smith has an enviable situation. It might not last long. (Might the Seahawks draft a QB next year?) But it's a credit to the former Jets QB that he continues to ascend incrementally as a situational football player. The Seahawks' win over the Cardinals was yet another example of that.
10. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (⬇️ 1)
11. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬇️ 4)
12. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (⬆️ 5)
13. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (⬆️ 1)
14. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬇️ 4)
15. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (⬆️ 1)
16. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (⬆️ 2)
17. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (⬇️ 2)
He's been anti-clutch.
I thought the problem was not having Nico Collins. I thought it was not having Joe Mixon. But at this point, there are no excuses left. Stroud and the Texans coaching staff are having major issues closing games. The Tennessee Titans exploited what has been clear for weeks. And maybe folks have intentionally missed the warning signs because Houston was such a popular pick (outside of Kansas City) to take the top spot in the AFC this year. Then the Texans let the Colts, Bears and Jaguars hang around in those early weeks. Over the past six weeks, they've lost four games. Three of those losses were in one-possession games and that fourth loss was … to the Jets. (Yuck!)
Stroud is just 23 years old. And he's acting his age this year, with 239.6 passing yards per game (15th), 14 touchdowns (13th) and nine interceptions (t-6th). This isn't some catastrophe. Houston is 7-5 and has a 95% chance of making the postseason, per Next Gen Stats. It's a sophomore slump. The acute question is whether he can grow beyond it by the postseason. Because while I believe in Stroud in the long term, I think the Texans look like a one-and-done playoff team at the moment.
18. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (⬆️ 1)
19. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (⬆️ 8)
20. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (⬆️ 4)
21. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (⬆️ 4)
There is still hope for Bryce.
He's a solid pocket-passing quarterback who is starting to see defenses clearer. He has a quick release and a sharp mind and used both to beat pressure this week.
The more he develops as a fast processor, the better the chances that he can be a long-term option in Carolina (or elsewhere). His supporting cast is better than last year, but it's still not where it needs to be — just look at the dropped touchdown catch from Tommy Tremble with a few seconds left on the clock in the first half. And it seemed like Adam Theilen and Young were not on the same page in the red zone for a third-down incompletion in the first half.
We used to think Carolina's missed opportunities were because of Young. Now, it looks like the fault is more on the rest of the offense. Neither is good, but this development seems like a positive for Young.
It's fitting to watch Young go against Mahomes — because they were foils for one another. Where Mahomes tends to succeed (on third and fourth down), Young has been unfortunately inefficient. This season on those money downs, Young's EPA per dropback is -.43, 37th in the NFL among passers with at least 50 dropbacks. In the fourth quarter this year, Young's EPA per dropback is, coincidentally, also -.43. In the red zone, Young's EPA/dropback is -.36.
And with that in mind, I do want to provide a reality check. At this time last year, Zach Wilson completed 71.3% of his passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns in a 3-point loss to … wait for it … the Chiefs.
Take this historical fact with a grain of salt. (Or take Young's latest performance with a grain of salt.)
22. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (⬇️ 2)
23. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (⬇️ 2)
24. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (⬇️ 2)
25. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (⬇️ 2)
26. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (↔)
27. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬆️ 1)
28. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders (⬆️ 1)
29. Brandon Allen, San Francisco 49ers (new)
30. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (↔)
31. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (↔)
32. Tommy DeVito, New York Giants (new)
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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