QB Stock Market Week 12: Josh Allen’s asterisk and the Aaron Rodgers boondoggle
You can see why Jim Harbaugh was giddy after the Chargers beat the Bengals. He was literally jumping and screaming with joy after the game in the locker room.
There's no making it out of the AFC without a superhuman at QB.
That's what the Chargers have in Justin Herbert.
Now, was Joe Burrow the better quarterback in the matchup? Yes. But his team's incompetence neutralized Burrow's MVP-caliber efforts, while the Chargers did everything to set up Herbert for success. And that's why L.A. is a legit contender in the AFC — because of Harbaugh and because of Herbert.
Welcome back to the QB Stock Market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately?
Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (⬆️ 1)
Allen just needs a Super Bowl.
He is a truly great quarterback without a championship. It's a paradox.
Dating back to Week 1 of 2023, Allen has been a better QB than Mahomes. I keep going back and forth on who is the best QB on the planet right now — it's a rotation between Lamar Jackson and Allen. One of them will win MVP.
But that's almost a moot point. What's most important: This era of quarterbacks will be defined by how many Super Bowls they wrestle away from Mahomes. And so far, Allen is as good as anyone at beating Mahomes … in the regular season. Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes from Weeks 1 to 17, but he's 1-3 in the postseason. Now, it's not good. But it's a whole heck of a lot better than Lamar, who is 1-5 against Mahomes overall.
It's time, Josh. Forget about the MVP. Focus on the postseason. Get rid of that he hasn't won a Super Bowl asterisk. There's greatness in this team and in this quarterback. It's time for them to realize it.
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (⬇️ 1)
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (↔)
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (⬆️ 1)
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (⬇️ 1)
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (⬆️ 3)
7. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬆️ 1)
8. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (⬆️ 7)
9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (⬆️ 2)
10. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬇️ 4)
11. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬇️ 4)
Mahomes played with fire long enough that we thought he'd never get burnt.
But finally, it happened.
Did he get a little cocky?
Probably so.
The Chiefs have eked out wins despite Mahomes' erratic season. KC has, in a way, reinforced Mahomes' over-aggressive decision-making because the defense and special teams have saved the QB from himself. But with Allen on the other sideline, Mahomes couldn't get away with his careless play.
It might not get discussed much, but that first interception was the Chiefs' biggest mistake of the game. They couldn't overcome it. Mahomes flipped the ball up into the air while getting tackled on the game's opening drive and the Bills picked it off. Allen then made it hurt, with a touchdown on the ensuing drive. Everyone will fixate on the Bills QB's amazing fourth-down conversion, which was the clutch, game-sealing moment. But Mahomes was unable to do his fourth-quarter heroics because he let the Bills build a lead that not even he could overcome.
Of course, it's not over.
During the postgame handshake, Mahomes told Allen, "We'll do it again, baby." And then inside the locker room after the game, the Chiefs players were telling each other, "Remember this feeling."
When? In the postseason, of course. When these two teams play again.
Look out, Buffalo: Mahomes won't play nice next time.
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (⬆️ 5)
13. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (⬇️ 3)
14. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (⬆️ 2)
15. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (⬇️ 3)
16. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (⬆️ 6)
Back in Week 8 when Nix played the Panthers, I wanted to see the rookie uncork it. I wanted to see him create and exploit downfield seams versus a shotty defense. Most of all, I wanted to see a surge of growth. And I didn't see much of it, which was a disappointment, given how bad that defense was and is.
Well, it took an extra three weeks, but I saw all of that against the Falcons. I'm not saying that we saw shades of Drew Brees. But I'm not not saying that.
It helped that Atlanta struggled to generate pressure. Nix had plenty of clean pockets. It helped that Atlanta's defense has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns, the seventh-most passing yards and the highest completion percentage in the NFL. Make no mistake: This defense is really bad. But Nix made sure everyone knew it. There was one throw that was basically perfect, a 33-yard strike between four defenders to receiver Devaughn Vele.
Nix's progress has been incremental. But he is living the cliché of getting 1% better every time he takes the field. And that could make him a pretty dangerous pocket passer as he gains more experience. Because Nix is processing quickly and decisively. If that kind of player begins to find he has "the answers to the test," as Tom Brady once said, he can be downright unstoppable in the right system.
17. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (⬆️ 1)
18. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (⬇️ 5)
19. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (↔)
20. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (⬇️ 6)
I think Kirk Cousins is getting worse.
It happened over the course of the Falcons' loss to the Broncos. It has been happening over the course of this season. In particular, he struggled against pressure on Sunday. His -1.84 EPA per dropback under pressure in Week 11 was the lowest mark by any QB in a game this season, per Next Gen Stats.
We haven't thought much about Michael Penix since Week 1. But the blowout was so bad this week that Penix got on the field. And given the Falcons' 6-5 record and Cousins' 11 turnovers on the year, I genuinely wonder if Atlanta might turn things over to their rookie in the coming weeks. Just to see if there's more juice to squeeze out of this offense.
Cousins has had some brilliant performances this season. And that has made it hard to consider replacing him with Penix. And there haven't been many outright horrid performances. But against the Broncos, Cousins was the worst version of himself.
21. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (↔)
22. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (⬇️ 2)
23. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (new)
His first throw of the game was a reminder of what he could do. Of why Indy drafted him.
With a rusher coming right at Richardson from the interior of the pocket, the Colts QB lofted a ball downfield to Josh Downs, who made a diving 31-yard reception. Huge chunk play, and Indy was off and running.
This was one of the most complete and impressive games of Richardson's career.
The flaws were there, of course. That first throw to Downs, if it had been more on target, could have been a touchdown. On the second throw of the game — Richardson was rolling left alongside tight end Kylen Granson — he struggled to flip his hips around to complete the pass and aired the ball. There's evidence that Richardson still lacks pocket presence and situational awareness. But that's what we've come to expect from him at this point in his development.
With Richardson, there is going to be a roller-coaster. Definitely for now and probably forever. (This is Josh Allen's seventh season, and he has only just started avoiding the colossal mistakes that disrupt an offense.) But I want to see Indy commit deeply to rolling with Richardson, like the Bills did with Allen. The Colts should sign tight ends Zach Ertz and/or Mike Gesicki this offseason. Or maybe they will have to draft a tight end. But they need to keep giving him big targets to feed the ball to, like Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce.
This wasn't some career-altering performance for Richardson. But it was more game experience. And on Sunday, he made a whole lot more positive plays than he did negative. That's a step forward.
24. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (⬇️ 1)
25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (↔)
26. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (↔)
27. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (↔)
28. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬇️ 4)
I think three things are true.
1) If the Jets' offensive line played better, Rodgers would look better.
2) He's not quite the same guy since his Achilles injury. (And you could argue he wasn't the same guy before the major injury.)
3) Even if the Jets give him a better offensive line and wait for him to recover in greater totality, I'm not sure he's a good enough quarterback to justify everything the Jets have given him — and would have to continue to give him in 2025.
The Jets were justified to give Rodgers a go before the injury. And they were justified committing to him this year.
But now? Another year feels like a boondoggle.
With Joe Douglas' firing Tuesday, the Jets are searching for a new head coach and general manager. They can't get bogged down in making those hires based on what Rodgers wants. It's a hard pill to swallow — having invested all this time and money for just two forgettable years of Rodgers. But if the roster is — as owner Woody Johnson said — one of the most talented Jets teams ever, then this is one of the most disappointing Jets teams ever. That's a profound superlative for the most disappointing franchise in the league.
Running it back doesn't make sense. It's time to cut the losses. The Rodgers era was yet another sunk cost (in an era of sunk costs) for Johnson. Bring on whatever's next.
29. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders (⬆️ 1)
30. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (⬆️ 1)
31. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (⬇️ 3)
32. Daniel Jones, New York Giants (↔)
Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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