Pressures, Hurries, Knockdowns: Raiders vs. Bills

The Raiders host the Bills on Sunday in an important tilt for both teams. The Bills are clinging to the outside of the playoff race and need every win they can get.

The Raiders hold a slim one-game lead over the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West and have three divisional road games in their final four to end the season.

This one is big.

Derek Carr’s pinky finger is fine, or so he says. Khalil Mack is the AFC Defensive Player of the Month. The Raiders have won six in a row mostly in exciting, comeback fashion. They’ve secured their first winning season in fourteen years.

But all is not perfect in Oakland. It’s as close as it’s been in a long time, but there are still things this team needs to shore up if they plan a deep playoff run.

This is an important game that carries a lot of pressure for the Raiders to maintain their lead in the division and stay in play for the AFC’s #1 seed.

Who is under pressure? What aspect of the Raiders game? What are some things we saw last week that went against conventional thinking?

Let’s find out.

Nov 27, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray (28) celebrates with tackle Donald Penn (72) his touchdown scored against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Pressures

Latavius Murray (and Jalen Richard)

Since gaining 218 yards on the ground against the Denver Broncos, the Raiders run game has gone dormant the past two games. Against the Texans in Mexico, the Raiders had 35 yards on 15 carries. Last week at home against the Panthers, Murray and Richard combined for a mere 68 yards on 26 carries.

For those counting at home, that’s a total of 103 yards on 41 carries. That’s an astoundingly poor 2.5 yards per carry average, which just isn’t good enough to get the job done.

It’s strange. After physically dominating the Broncos up front, the line has continued to play well in pass protection but failed to open any major running lanes.

As a result, Murray has been particularly plodding. Of the past two weeks he owns 78 of those yards on 31 carries, right at the 2.5 ypc average.

The Bills come to town with the NFL’s #8 ranked passing defense. They are missing their second-best corner in Ronald Darby, who is dealing with a concussion. They still have Stephen Gilmore, and a decent pass rush up front with a healthy Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams.

Both teams injury reports are extensive this week, with Darby the most significant player officially out at this point.

The Raiders would do well do establish the run game and take pressure off Derek Carr, who is still nursing a dislocated pinky on his throwing hand that all indications say is fine. To that end, the pressure is on Murray and Richard to make some plays in the run game against a difficult Bills front seven.

The offensive line deserves some of the pressure here, as while they’ve been great at keeping it off Carr, they’ve slacked in the run game recently. That needs to change Sunday for the Raiders to have a balanced attack and win the game.

Nov 27, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Ted Ginn (19) runs the ball in for a touchdown against Oakland Raiders free safety Reggie Nelson (27) during the second half at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Raiders Defense – Big Plays

While Darby is out, Sammy Watkins is not and he’s poised for a big game. According to him, anyway. He’s still dealing with foot issues but the team is expecting a big day.

The Bills offense is very odd. They have the #1 rush offense in the NFL, keyed by LeSean “Shady” McCoy and QB Tyrod Taylor. But they have the #32 ranked pass offense in the NFL, as Taylor rarely tops 200 yards and makes more plays with his legs than arms.

When Taylor does make plays with his arm, they are often big plays. Taylor has a great knack for scrambling out of trouble and making big throws downfield. With Watkins back and David Amerson and D.J. Hayden nursing injuries, the Raiders could be susceptible to a big play or two.

That doesn’t account for McCoy, who was bottled up by the Jags last weekend in the first half. He had 8 rushing yards at halftime, and then took the opening play 75 yards for a weaving, jet-fueled score. Shady can break it anytime, anywhere.

He showed no ill effects of a dislocated thumb while torching the Jags and it’s healed another week now. With McCoy keeping the Raiders defense honest, Taylor will have his opportunities to make plays.

The Raiders are under pressure to limit those plays to garden-variety rather than spectacular. Against the Panthers, the Raiders gave up less than 100 yards of offense in the first half. Three big plays accounted for half of the Panthers 358 total yards. Three plays.

Without those three plays it was a blowout and defensive tour-de-force. Expect Khalil Mack to harass Taylor and drive him into the arms of Bruce Irvin once or twice. If they can limit big plays, the Bills do not have the offensive efficiency to hang with the Raiders.

Nov 21, 2016; Mexico City, MEX; Oakland Raiders Khalil Mack (52) moves at the snap during a NFL International Series game against the Houston Texans at Estadio Azteca. The Raiders defeated the Texans 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Hurries

Nov 27, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) celebrates with game ball after a NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. The Raiders defeated the Panthers 45-42. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Knockdowns

Derek Carr isn’t an MVP Candidate

Yes, there were still many on that train prior to Sunday’s game against Carolina. They’ve likely bailed off of it now, and if they haven’t, they’re riding solo in the drink car about to crash into a mountain.

With the Raiders leading 24-7 and dominating the game on both sides of the ball, Carr dislocated his pinky finger. On his throwing hand. From a routine snap.

He immediately bailed away from the ball in clear pain, and the Panthers recovered deep in Raider territory. Touchdown, Panthers.

Matt McGloin came in for one ineffective series — just long enough to get absolutely de-cleated — and the Panthers got the ball back. Big strike to Ted Ginn, Panthers touchdown.

Carr comes back in and throws a pick. Panthers touchdown. Due to some weird two-point conversion mistakes and then chasing points, the Panthers score four TD’s but end up with 25 points unanswered.

Then Carr takes over, and wills the team back with four fingers. Zings the ball like he’d just healed from an injury, not suffered one. Steals the soul from the Panthers as he’s done to so many other teams this season.

The feeling when Carr was injured, and the subsequent lull and sense of worry that filled the Coliseum when he was out, was palpable. It was not quite “the season is over!” but it was definitely “oh man, the season could be over…”

That’s not an indictment on McGloin, who has played passably as a backup in his time in Oakland. Rather it’s an endorsement of Carr and how much his leadership, poise, calm, and clutchness in winning time means to this team.

The roars when he returned were deafening. But he threw the pick and folks wondered if he was okay. Replays showed it was a mental mistake and not a physical one, Carr perhaps trying to do too much to stem the flow of momentum to the Carolina side.

Anyone who doubted if Carr should be an MVP candidate — if not the favorite — need only watch the second half of the Panthers game.

The team fell apart without him. He came back and made a mistake, and then put the team on his back and marched them to another victory.

Carr’s 121.9 passer rating in the fourth quarter is first in the NFL and almost double his miserable 65.9 of a year ago. Rather than wondering if he’d force a play and make a costly mistake, you just know he’s going to make a big play and lead the team to victory.

Any leader that instills that confidence in his team, and then backs it up with tangible results, is a clear-cut MVP candidate. The Raiders waited a long time for a QB, and they’ve found a great one.