Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots: Prediction, odds, picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -6) over the New England Patriots (2-10). The Patriots have dropped five games in a row. 

The Patriots scored zero points in a 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13, while the Steelers were outplayed by the Arizona Cardinals in a 24-10 defeat. 

This game will likely to be a low-scoring affair as it opened with the lowest point total in over a decade. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Patriots and Steelers — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Steelers vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Lines

Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (-6) 
• Pick OU: Over (32) 
• Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 - New England 10

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill 

Oh boy, I guess I have to bet on the Patriots. 

Yes, they are 2-10 and single-handedly setting back offenses decades. However, they’re playing very good defense, and have held three straight opponents to 10 points or fewer. 

They also face a Steelers team who is starting a backup quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, and are trying to get him caught up to speed with the first-team offense on a short week. 

The Patriots won’t score much, but neither will the Steelers. Six points is a lot in a game like this. 

I expect a 13-10 type of final.  

PICK: Patriots (+6) to lose by 6 points or fewer (or win outright) 

How to Watch Pittsburgh vs. New England

• Game Date: Thursday, December 7, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium
• Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV: Watch on Amazon Prime Video

Steelers vs. Patriots Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head contests, New England has won against Pittsburgh four times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, New England has scored 123 points against Pittsburgh, while giving up only 75 points.

Pittsburgh Betting Info

• Pittsburgh is 7-5-0 against the spread this season.
• The Steelers have not covered the spread this season (0-1 ATS) when playing as at least 6-point favorites.
• Pittsburgh games this year have hit the over just two times in 12 opportunities (16.7%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Steelers are 3-2 (winning 60% of the time).
• Pittsburgh has played as a moneyline favorite of -250 or shorter in just one game this season, which it lost.
• The Steelers have a 71.4% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Steelers Stats

Pittsburgh's Key Players

Offense

• Kenny Pickett has 2,070 passing yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He has completed 62.0% of his attempts, averaging 172.5 yards per game and 6.4 per attempt.
• He has also rushed for 54 yards (third on the Steelers) and added one touchdown on the ground, while averaging 4.5 rushing yards per game.
• Najee Harris has put up 661 rushing yards with four touchdowns (55.1 yards per game over 12 games). His 4.2 yards per attempt rank 17th in the league.
• Harris' 30 targets in the passing game have turned into 21 catches (1.8 per game) for 130 yards (10.8 per game) and zero touchdowns.
• In 12 games, Jaylen Warren has picked up 601 yards on the ground, averaging 50.1 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns.
• Warren has been on the receiving end of 48 targets in the passing game and has 38 catches (3.2 per game) for 243 yards (20.3 per game) and zero TDs.
• George Pickens has 44 receptions for 748 yards and three touchdowns. He's been targeted 78 times in the air attack, and averages 3.7 receptions and 62.3 yards through 12 games played.

Defense

• On defense, T.J. Watt has 47 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 14 sacks, and one interception in 2023.
• Alex Highsmith has 6.0 sacks (second on the Steelers) as well as 7.0 TFL, 47 tackles, and one interception.
• Elandon Roberts has recorded 80 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
• This season, Damontae Kazee has 53 tackles and two interceptions.

New England Betting Info

• New England has covered the spread two times this season (2-10-0).
• The Patriots have been underdogs by 6 points or more three times this season and covered the spread once.
• New England's games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under three times this season.
• The Patriots have entered the game as underdogs eight times this season and won once.
• New England has entered three games this season as the underdog by +205 or more and is 1-2 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win by the Patriots based on the moneyline is 32.8%.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Rhamondre Stevenson averages 51.6 rushing yards per game this year (619 total yards), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
• Stevenson's offensive contributions include 38 receptions (3.2 per game) on 51 targets for 238 yards (19.8 per game), though he has not scored a touchdown through the air.
• Mac Jones has 2,120 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His completion percentage is 64.9% and he averages 192.7 yards per game and 6.1 per attempt.
• Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 35.8 rushing yards per game this season (429 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
• In addition to his rushing stats, Elliott has grabbed 24 passes (on 31 targets) for 154 yards (ninth on the Patriots). He averages 12.8 yards per game.
• Hunter Henry has 32 catches for 313 yards and three receiving touchdowns. He averages 2.9 yards per game in 11 games and has been targeted 49 times.

Defense

• In 2023, Ja'Whaun Bentley has recorded 4.0 sacks to go with 5.0 TFL and 79 tackles through 11 games.
• Kyle Dugger has 72 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions. He is second on the Patriots in tackles.
• During the 2023 campaign, Jabrill Peppers has 63 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception in 12 games.
• Jahlani Tavai's stat sheet includes one interception as well as 70 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and four passes defended in 12 games