Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens: Prediction, odds, picks

Having taken six in a row, the Baltimore Ravens (13-3) will play the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7). Despite that, the Steelers are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5). The over/under for this one is set at 37.5 points.

The Ravens completely dismantled the Miami Dolphins 56-19 last weekend, while the Steelers took down the Seattle Seahawks 30-23 in their Week 17 contest. 

Baltimore is solidified as the top seed in the AFC and Pittsburgh needs a win here to make the postseason. 

Will the Ravens rest their starters since they have everything wrapped up, or will they go all out to spoil their rivals' season?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Steelers and Ravens — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Steelers vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Lines

Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Baltimore (+3.5) 
• Pick OU: Over (37.5) 
• Prediction: Baltimore 30 - Pittsburgh 12

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

There are lots of moving parts here, but the Ravens were in this same position in 2019. 

They clinched a postseason bye, and were playing the Steelers in the final week of the regular season. They rested their starters, and ended up losing their first playoff game a few weeks later. 

Does Harbaugh really want a 3-week layoff for all of his key players? 

I think the Ravens will play their guys a bit, and getting 4 at home is too good to pass up despite the lack of motivation.

PICK: Ravens (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
 

How to Watch Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

• Game Date: Saturday, January 6, 2024
• Time: 4:30 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
• Location: Baltimore, Maryland
• TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN

Steelers vs. Ravens Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Baltimore has totaled three wins against Pittsburgh.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, Baltimore has racked up 93 points, while Pittsburgh has tallied 80.

Pittsburgh Betting Info

• Pittsburgh has nine wins in 16 games versus the spread this year.
• The Steelers have not covered the spread when favored by 3.5 points or more this season (in two opportunities).
• Pittsburgh games this year have hit the over on six of 16 set point totals (37.5%).
• The Steelers have put together a 3-3 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 50% of those games).
• Pittsburgh has played as a moneyline favorite of -180 or shorter in just two games this season, and it lost both.
• The Steelers have a 64.3% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Steelers Stats

Pittsburgh's Key Players

Offense

• Najee Harris' rushing output this season includes 923 yards and seven TDs. He's averaging 57.7 yards per game and 4.0 per attempt (23rd in the NFL).
• George Pickens has caught 63 passes on 106 targets for 1,140 total yards and five touchdowns. He is averaging 3.9 catches and 71.3 yards per game through 16 games.
• Jaylen Warren's output on the ground this season includes 751 yards and four TDs. He's averaging 46.9 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt (second in the NFL).
• Warren has 56 receptions on 69 targets for 353 yards, though he has yet to score a touchdown in the passing game.
• Kenny Pickett has 2,070 passing yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He has completed 62.0% of his attempts, averaging 172.5 yards per game and 6.4 per attempt.
• He has tacked on 54 rushing yards (4.5 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.

Defense

• On defense for the Steelers, T.J. Watt has put up 60 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 17 sacks, and one interception in 2023.
• Elandon Roberts has 2.5 sacks as well as 10.0 TFL and 100 tackles.
• This season, Alex Highsmith has recorded 7.0 sacks (second on the Steelers) to go with his 8.0 TFL, 54 tackles, and two interceptions.
• Larry Ogunjobi has 3.0 sacks (third on the Steelers) as well as 3.0 TFL and 42 tackles on the season.

Baltimore Betting Info

• Baltimore is 11-5-0 against the spread this year.
• This season, the Ravens have won ATS in each of their two games as an underdog of 3.5 points or more.
• Games involving Baltimore have hit the over on eight occasions this year.
• The Ravens have won both games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Baltimore has played as an underdog of +150 or more once this season and won that game.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 40.0% chance of a victory for the Ravens.

Ravens Stats

Baltimore's Key Players

Offense

• Lamar Jackson is averaging 8.0 passing yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL) and 229.9 yards per game this year, completing 67.2% of his passes on the way to 3,678 total yards, 24 touchdowns (10th in the NFL) and seven interceptions through 16 games.
• Jackson has also rushed for five touchdowns and 821 yards (first on the Ravens).
• Gus Edwards has scored 13 rushing touchdowns, while totaling 762 rushing yards (4.1 per attempt and 47.6 per game).
• Edwards also has 12 catches for 180 yards (seventh on the Ravens). He has been targeted 13 times and averages 11.3 yards per game.
• Zay Flowers has totaled 858 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 77 receptions, while being targeted 108 times this season.
• Justice Hill averages 25.8 rushing yards per game over 15 games (387 total yards), with three rushing touchdowns.
• Hill has also caught 25 passes for 180 yards (seventh on the Ravens), with one receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 29 times and averages 12.0 yards per game.

Defense

• Roquan Smith has recorded 1.5 sacks to go with 5.0 TFL, 158 tackles, and one interception over 16 games in 2023.
• Patrick Queen has 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Ravens) to go with 9.0 TFL, 125 tackles, and one interception.
• Justin Madubuike has 13.0 sacks (first on the Ravens) in addition to his 12.0 TFL and 54 tackles.
• Kyle Hamilton has totaled 3.0 sacks as well as 10.0 TFL, 81 tackles, and four interceptions.