Patriots, Jets, fighting for their seasons, desperate to beat each other in Week 3
The New York Jets and the New England Patriots are set to engage in the Desperation Bowl, the battle to avoid last place in the AFC East. It's not just any old matchup to avoid last place in a good division, which wouldn't be all that consequential in Week 3. This game is a battle for confidence, with the Jets and Patriots both trying to avoid a really dark situation.
Whoever loses might begin to implode.
Whoever wins could legitimately make the playoffs.
The Jets are grappling with what to do in the wake of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' injury. They won a game against the Buffalo Bills without him, thanks largely to quarterback Josh Allen's four turnovers. But against the Dallas Cowboys, the Jets showed an ugly side, with the defense struggling to hold down Dak Prescott — and the offense watching Zach Wilson throw three interceptions. It felt like a bad Jets performance from the 2022 season.
That's what the Jets need to believe, that their season isn't devolving into 2022 all over again. Because in 2022, they lost twice to the Patriots. In fact, New York has lost 14 straight to New England going back to Dec. 27, 2015.
"I get it, we acknowledge [the losing streak], but at the same time, it doesn't define this group today, with the group that we have, 2023 Jets," coach Robert Saleh said Wednesday when asked about the Patriots' win streak.
Over the 14-game streak, per FOX Sports research, the Patriots …
- Have outscored the Jets by an average of 18.4 points per game
- Have outgained them by nearly 100 yards per game (96.9)
- Are a plus-27 in turnover differential
- Are outscoring the Jets by 127 points in the first half of games, averaging a nine-point lead at halftime of each game
- Have held the Jets to fewer than 20 points in 13 of the 14 wins; single-digits in six of the 14 games
- Have scored 25-plus points in 10 of the 14 wins.
This browser does not support the Video element.
Another loss for New York would be brutal. Another loss would reinstill the idea that they're the same old Jets. Because the Patriots are sort of the same old Patriots, according to Saleh. He told reporters that New England is the "same that you always see." Now, I'm not sure I agree with that. But if the Patriots are the same, by Saleh's eye test, then what's stopping the Jets from losing this time? What's different about New York?
"That's a good question," Saleh said. "I'll keep a lot of that between me and the team, but it comes down to executing against a team like New England, making sure that you don't screw yourself up and turning the ball over, always taking care of the ball."
It doesn't help that Wilson doesn't have a good record against the Patriots — particularly not with turnovers. In his career against New England, he is 0-4 with a 50.9 completion percentage for 173.25 yards per game with two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Coach Bill Belichick has a knack for flummoxing young quarterbacks. There might not be a quarterback more perplexed by Belichick's defense than Wilson.
If the Jets lose, they'll be 1-2 and last in the division. There might be a crisis of confidence. Already, we've seen running back Breece Hall nudge the coaching staff about his discontent at his lack of touches.
"I mean, I only had four touches," Hall said Sunday after the game. "That's why we struggled. But it is what it is. We just got down early today and kind of just abandoned the run. I feel like with any team, that type of stuff happens. That's how it is. You feel like you've got to get back in the game and stuff like that. It just slips away. So that's what it was."
[McKenna: Do Jets RB Breece Hall’s comments point to a locker room in search of a leader?]
Might other players begin to speak up? Will the frustration boil over?
These are questions the Jets won't have to answer if they win.
But the Jets actually have a win in-hand. The Patriots are winless. They're fighting for their first victory. And, to some degree, I think that makes them more desperate.
"This is not a bad team," star edge rusher Matthew Judon said postgame on Sunday. "I don't think we're about to hang our hat up here or in that locker room, so when we come back on Monday and we watch this film, we're going to get our corrections corrected. Then when we come back together on Wednesday, it's not going to be, 'Oh, how are y'all going to put it together?' We already know how."
The Patriots have lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 25-20 and the Miami Dolphins 24-17. Neither loss was ugly. New England stayed in it. But the Patriots offense has yet to actually win them a game despite the defense generating ample opportunities for the team to pull off an underdog victory.
It was interesting to hear Saleh credit the Patriots for "moving the ball well," because they do, indeed. It was interesting to hear cornerback Sauce Gardner say the Patriots "don't really have a complex offense," because they don't. But it was also interesting to hear Gardner say, "They just do everything right," because they don't. That's where the Same Old Patriots chatter falls short.
Belichick has, for years, prided his team on discipline, avoiding turnovers and penalties. While New England is doing OK with penalties, it is struggling with turnovers. The Patriots are tied for third in the NFL with four turnovers: two interceptions and two fumbles. (One of the interceptions was a pick-six.) That's not going to cut it for a team that wants to win with a methodical offense. It has felt like those turnvoers have killed the momentum of the team's best drives.
"The start of the games, we've moved the ball and something's happened, whether it was a pick-six or a sack like what happened the past weekend," offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien said. "I do think we have the right idea when it comes to opening these games, but again, we have to be able to string the plays along so that we can come down and get points and not stall around midfield."
It doesn't even take a turnover to derail this offense. A sack will do it, because the Patriots can't convert third-and-long. They have converted just three of 16 situations (18.8%) to first downs in third-and-7 or longer. It's not a winning spot for them.
New England's offense has some serious problems, not unlike New York's. The Patriots defense needs to win them games, not unlike the Jets defense. And both the Patriots and Jets need to win this game if they're going to have any faith in themselves going forward.
Both teams already face long odds to make the playoffs, but it's not just their playoff odds going from long to longer. It's also the question of job security for the coaches. Saleh and Belichick are likely in secure positions for 2023 and 2024. Saleh has Rodgers coming back next year. Belichick is Belichick. But if these teams really begin to underperform — because the Jets were supposed to win a Super Bowl and the Patriots always expect to win a Super Bowl — then their seats get hot. Maybe not hot enough for them to lose their job. But it could certainly complicate their standing for the 2024 season to be make-or-break for either coach — or both.
The team that wins the Desperation Bowl won't achieve salvation or redemption. It just won't find itself in the pits. Losing is not an option for either team. But one of them will have to do it.
Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.