Patriots-Dolphins preview: Week 1 NFL guide, analysis, prediction

The 2022 NFL season kicks off Sunday with a must-see AFC East showdown between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

FOX Sports' staff of NFL writers has assembled a guide to every Week 1 contest. Be sure to check back throughout the coming season for weekly matchup analysis and game predictions.

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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Overview: New England and Miami must know they face a bottleneck in the AFC, particularly within their stacked division. With the Bills favored to win the AFC East, the Patriots and Dolphins might be left to fight over a wild-card berth. This season opener could prove enormously important if the two teams face a tiebreaker.

Matchup to watch: Patriots CB Jonathan Jones (and safety Devin McCourty) vs. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

The Patriots faced Hill five times during his Chiefs tenure. They only truly contained him once, a postseason game that followed the 2018 season when Hill had a single catch for 42 yards. But their recipe for preventing him from dominating the game starts with Jones. He is a speedy corner who has held up in coverage when getting help over the top from McCourty. That will likely be what New England tries on Sunday.

Key stat: The Dolphins have won three straight matchups against the Patriots. Miami has never defeated New England four straight times since Bill Belichick became the Patriots coach in 2000.

Prediction: Contrary to what the stats indicate, I think the Dolphins can pull off a win. Their development seems to be further along than that of the Patriots, who installed a new offensive system without a coordinator. New England's defense has too many unproven youngsters. New Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel schemes up a masterpiece for his debut and gets a victory. Dolphins 31, Patriots 24 — Henry McKenna