Panthers offseason preview: Help needed all over, starting at receiver
With new leadership in place with head coach Dave Canales and general manager Dan Morgan, where now does the Carolina Panthers' roster rebuild truly begin?
Carolina had the worst record in the NFL at 2-15, ranking in the bottom four in points scored and points allowed, so there's room for immediate improvement all over the field. Without a first-round draft pick, with limited salary-cap flexibility, the question is how they can effectively take steps forward in 2024 toward fielding a team that can compete for a winning record and return to the playoffs.
What do they do with edge rusher Brian Burns, one of the most coveted free agents at any position? How do they best help quarterback Bryce Young improve? How will the offensive priorities change under Canales and new offensive coordinator Brad Idzik? The way these questions are answered in the next two months — in free agency in March and the draft in April — will go a long way toward knowing how much better Carolina can be in the first year of a new chapter.
The Panthers have about $30 million in cap space right now, and they can add to that with restructures, but many of their contracts are already reworked, making it harder to move on from underperforming players. Many of last year's free agent additions got a second year guaranteed, making it harder to move on from players like running back Miles Sanders, tight end Hayden Hurst, safety Vonn Bell and defensive tackle Shy Tuttle.
Their offseason starts with Burns, still only 25 but not close to a long-term extension. After making the Pro Bowl in 2021 and 2022, he didn't this past season, managing eight sacks with similar pressure rates. The most logical outcome is to tag-and-trade him — sign him to the franchise tag at $21.9 million and trade him for draft picks, giving the team more flexibility and draft assets to make this roster younger and more in line with the new regime. If you don't tag Burns and he signs elsewhere, you're looking at a third-round compensatory pick in 2025, a small consolation compared to what was once offered for his services.
The next priority in free agency is linebacker Frankie Luvu, who's emerged in the last two seasons with 100+ tackles, 12.5 sacks and 29 tackles for loss. He's 27, but with the continuity of keeping defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, there's a good chance they bring him back, likely at just north of $10 million a year. It also would be wise to lock up defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who is playing on his fifth-year option in 2024 but was their lone Pro Bowl pick and is someone they want to keep around.
Positionally, the most important place to upgrade is wide receiver, where Carolina had little help for Young as a rookie. Adam Thielen, who turns 34 in August, will be back after a 1,000-yard season, but they could use a true No. 1 receiver who is more of a downfield threat. That could be in spending big for top free agents like the Bengals' Tee Higgins or the Colts' Michael Pittman — the pie-in-the-sky dream would be the Bucs' Mike Evans, but he's likely returning to Tampa or at least signing with a playoff contender. They could use their top draft pick — No. 33 overall — on a receiver, hoping for more NFL readiness than last year's second-rounder, Jonathan Mingo, who managed only 418 yards out of 85 targets. Don't be surprised if the Panthers sign veteran David Moore, who was with Canales and Idzik in Seattle and would add familiar, reliable depth.
To look back on Carolina's season is to see that Panthers got worse as the year went on. Frank Reich's decision to turn over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, then take them back, then have them returned to Brown upon his firing, didn't help the offense at any point. The Panthers averaged 11.3 points per game from Week 8 on, the lowest average in the league by a field goal and the lowest for any NFL team in its final 11 games since the 2012 Chiefs, who went 2-14.
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Add in a new coach from outside the program, and there could be more likelihood to go with young and new players, at least on offense. The offensive line, scuttled by injuries throughout 2023, is wide-open between tackles Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton. Tight end, a position Canales used extensively in Seattle, could be upgraded.
Carolina needs to nail its second- and third-round picks, and their Day 3 picks are all over the place, losing their fifth and sixth in old trades for Baker Mayfield and Laviska Shenault, but gaining fifths in old deals where they lost Christian McCaffrey and Dennis Daley, plus a sixth for Robbie Anderson. This is a team with six draft picks but a roster that should have much more than six rookies making the cut, so even finding undrafted gems will be part of the rebuild.
The tag-and-trade on Burns only works if they can deal him quickly, as his $22 million tag number greatly reduces their ability to sign other players in free agency. So the first domino is either finding a way to lock him up and lower his 2024 cap number — this still seems unlikely — or working out a trade in time to allow them to address other needs ahead of the draft. It likely won't be an immediate turnaround for Carolina, but 2024 can be a step in the right direction.
Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.