NFL odds Week 16: How to bet Raiders-Steelers

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The Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers will play Saturday night, one day after the 50th anniversary of one of the most famous games in NFL history.

On Dec. 23, 1972, the Steelers beat the then-Oakland Raiders 13-7 in an AFC divisional playoff game when running back Franco Harris – who died Wednesday at age 72 – caught a deflected pass from quarterback Terry Bradshaw – now a FOX NFL Sunday co-host – and ran for a 60-yard touchdown with five seconds remaining.

The play is known as "The Immaculate Reception" and is considered the most famous play in NFL history.

The Raiders lead the all-time series 17-13, winning four of the past five contests.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Raiders-Steelers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and insights (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: NFL power rankings

Raiders at Steelers  (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, NFL Network)

Point spread: Steelers -2.5 (Steelers favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Raiders cover)
Moneyline: Steelers -149 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.71 total); Raiders +115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 38.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Steelers have 23 offensive touchdowns on the year, tied with the Texans for the third-fewest in the NFL. 

Of those, over half (12) have come from the 1 or 2-yard line. They’ve scored 20 of 23 touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line and just one touchdown from 20-plus yards out (24-yard line). 

The average length of touchdown for the Steelers is 5.7 yards, the lowest in the NFL. 

On the other hand, the Raiders have scored 34 offensive TDs on the season (12th-most) and only four of those 34 have come from the 1 or 2-yard line. Instead, a whopping 16 of 34 TDs have come from 20-plus yards out. 

The average length of touchdown for the Raiders is 21.7 yards, the second-highest in the NFL. 

Las Vegas is an explosive passing offense that can also break explosive runs. The way to attack the Steelers defense has been through the air. And in particular, their secondary. 

Over the second half of the season, on passes thrown over 10 yards downfield, the Steelers defense ranks: 

  • No. 28 in EPA/att (+0.59)
  • No. 27 in success rate (55%)
  • No. 27 in completion rate (55%)
  • No. 23 in yards/att (11.8)

And this is despite facing many below-average passing offenses like the Colts (No. 32), Panthers (No. 30), Saints (No. 20) and Falcons (No. 19) during that span, in addition to the Ravens starting a backup quarterback. 

These were games vs. the now-benched Matt Ryan, now-benched Marcus Mariota, backup Tyler Huntley, Sam Darnold and Andy Dalton.   

The only good QBs they faced were Joe Burrow (37 points scored) and Jalen Hurts (35 points scored). 

That’s five bad QBs to two good QBs. You should not rank bottom-10 against that schedule. But the Steelers secondary did. 

Pittsburgh is actually the second-worst overall pass defense the Raiders have played in their last seven games.   

And the Steelers rank No. 31 vs. WR1s, which means a solid spot for Davante Adams. 

So I can completely see why, when it was announced Kenny Pickett was starting and this line bumped to Pittsburgh -3, that the 3’s were bought by sharp groups, driving this line back down to 2 and 2.5. 

I have two lone concerns for the Raiders. 

1. Weather. It’s supposed to be 12 degrees, will feel like -5 degrees and will feature 15 mph winds with gusts of 32 mph. This stadium is notoriously difficult to kick FGs in, particularly when it is this windy. Additionally, this would impact the way the Raiders need to attack Pittsburgh, which is via the air and specifically, via deeper passes. 

2. The passing of Franco Harris. I would only consider teasing the Raiders at this point. 

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