NFL odds Week 11: How to bet Browns-Bills, pick

The Cleveland Browns travel to upstate New York to square off against the Buffalo Bills in a Week 11 NFL matchup.

The Browns are coming off a 39-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins, while the Bills are reeling after a 33-30 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings, their second loss in a row. 

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Browns-Bills game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and Insights from Warren Sharp (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Week 11 lines, odds

Browns at Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Bills -8.5 (Mascot favored to win by more than X.X points, otherwise Browns cover)
Moneyline: Bills -400 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.50 total); Browns +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The weather is the first thing to consider in a late-season game in Buffalo. And sure enough, this Sunday does not look pretty. As of Thursday morning, there is an 80% chance of snow with temperatures in the upper 20s. It will feel like the temperature is in the mid-teens, and winds in the upper teens, gusting to 30 mph.

If this forecast comes to fruition, it will be challenging to play a standard game.

By that, I mean passing beyond 10-15 yards will be an adventure. Punting will depend on which direction the wind is blowing. And forget kicking field goals beyond distances of a standard extra point.

Could the weather end up not being nearly this impactful? Certainly, but as of now, we have to predict the game using the predicted weather, so off we go.

Both teams will need to turn to the run more frequently.  

The problem for the Bills is their run defense of late. They have allowed 471 yards on the ground to backs over their past three games. From an efficiency perspective, they’ve allowed:

• 5.5 yards per carry after contact, 32nd
• 32% of carries to gain a first down or touchdown, 31st
• 54.7% success rate, 27th

And that came playing three run offenses that rank worse than the third-ranked Cleveland Browns.

This has been a stark contrast to how the Bills started off the first six weeks of the season, where they allowed opposing running backs just 3.1 YPC, 33% success and 2.5 yards after contact.

Unless the weather is absolutely terrible, where passing is near impossible, and the Bills can stack the box without being punished through the air, we should expect Nick Chubb to have a strong outing versus this current-form Bills defense.

Unlike the Bills' recent struggles, the Browns have been terrible against the run for virtually the entire season.  

On the season, the Browns rank as the NFL’s worst run defense in a variety of metrics and are showing no signs of improvement.

This will keep the door open for the Bills to run efficiently if they cannot pass as often as they would like due to the weather.  

From a betting perspective, with games like this, it’s most wise to get out in front of the projected line movement. And that would be to have bet the Under earlier in the week. But at this point, with a total sitting at 41, we really need to be certain the forecast will hold up before looking to bet against points.  

Since 2019 the Bills have hosted six games from Week 8 onward with winds of 17-plus mph. Four of the six games went under the total. The average totals were 41 points, and the average points scored in the games was only 35.7. If the winds were 20-plus mph, the totals were 3-1 to the Under, with an average score of only 33.5 points.

There is a possibility this game will get moved, so stay tuned!

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