Oakland Raiders: 5 X-factors to contending for a Super Bowl
The Oakland Raiders are viewed by many as contenders to win Super Bowl LII, but these five X-factors must step up for that to happen.
Perhaps one of the biggest what-ifs of the 2016 season is what would've happened had the Oakland Raiders not lost quarterback Derek Carr to a broken fibula. They lost in the Wild Card Round with Connor Cook at the helm, as many expected them to. For a team that went 12-3 with Carr as the starter, though, it's hard to think a premature exit would've been in the cards.
That's not to say that the silver and black would've gone on to win the Super Bowl. However, they would've certainly had the chance to make that happen with Carr. Now they look ahead to the 2017 season, armed with a healthy and motivated Carr, and have big aspirations. Getting out of the league's cellar and having a winning season isn't enough — this team is eyeing Super Bowl LII.
As far as the Raiders' Super Bowl aspirations go, the big factors are evident. Carr, Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Bruce Irvin, Kelechi Osemele, Gabe Jackson, Donald Penn and so on are obviously going to be critical. Games may be won by stars alone, but Super Bowls aren't. It take a full team effort to make that level of success happen.
Subsequently, there will need to be players in the Bay Area that step up to either live up to or exceed expectations and players who fill critical roles for the silver and black to be successful. With that in mind, these are the five X-factors for the Oakland Raiders contending for Super Bowl LII.
Note: Inside linebacker is not mentioned here as there is too much left to be determined at the position currently.
May 5, 2017; Alameda, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders safety Obi Melifonwu (20) during rookie minicamp at the Raiders practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
5. Obi Melifonwu
There's no question that Gareon Conley at cornerback is going to be a major factor for the defense. Given that there are few questions about his on-field ability, though, it's hard to consider him an X-factor. He's expected to perform at a high level and very well should to improve upon the duo of David Amerson and Sean Smith.
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However, the Raiders' second-round pick in safety Obi Melifonwu, I think, is going to be critical to the success of the defense. While Karl Joseph and Reggie Nelson are the obvious starters at the two safety spots, there's more to consider. First is the age of Nelson. Though he was a bright spot a year ago, it's hard to say how much longer he'll play at a high level. Thus, preserving him will be key and having Melifonwu as relief could be pivotal.
What's more, though, Melifonwu boasts such a ridiculous athletic profile that he's not pigeon-holed solely to a safety role. He could see time as a nickel back and even in hybrid roles. The versatility he brings to the table is something that defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. didn't have a year ago.
In a league that features so many complex and explosive offenses, having a player that affords a defense the ability to change looks so often is enormously important. Melifonwu, even as just a rookie, has the tools to be a player that brings that for the Raiders. If that indeed turns out to be the case, the Oakland defense will get a huge boost from it.
September 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders defensive end Mario Jr. Edwards (97) during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at O.co Coliseum. The Raiders defeated the Ravens 37-33. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
4. Mario Edwards Jr.
Raiders fans will fondly remember Mario Edwards Jr.'s rookie year as a second-round pick out of Florida State. In his first year in the league, Edwards played in 14 games and showed a ton of promise. Though he registered just 42 combined tackles and only two sacks, his performance in limited work seemed to pave the way for big success in Year 2.
Unfortunately, Edwards' sophomore effort barely happened at all. He suffered a hip injury early in the year and was kept out until late December. Subsequently, he appeared in only two games and was never able to get into a rhythm. Thus, the hope is that he'll be able to not only get back to his rookie form, but further improve as you'd hope a 23-year old would.
Edwards isn't necessarily the complement to Khalil Mack at defensive end given that his pass rush abilities are limited. But that's not a huge deal considering the presence of Bruce Irvin at linebacker. With Edwards, though, his ability against the run is critical for Oakland. Though they were better against the run than the pass a season ago, their run defense seemed more consistently mediocre-or-worse. Meanwhile, the pass defense was just simply inconsistent.
The biggest strength that Edwards possesses is his ability to defend the run off the edge. With questions remaining at defensive tackle, having that added element on their defensive front would be massive to helping the overall defense improve.
Dec 27, 2015; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins (53) prior to a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Sun Life Stadium. The Colts won 18-12. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
3. Jelani Jenkins
The decided weak spot, particularly after their offseason additions, on Oakland's defense is at linebacker. Many people point to the inside linebacker spot, which is definitely an area of concern. However, there's also plenty to be proved at the WILL linebacker spot. That's where the Raiders signed Jelani Jenkins, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, will come into the fold and play a huge role for this team.
Jenkins was a fourth-round pick in 2013 and struggled as a rookie in Miami. In the 2014 and 2015 seasons, however, Jenkins showed flashes of truly brilliant play. He has the athleticism to excel in coverage and did so many times. What's more, he also had moments when he seemed to have improved upon his biggest weakness coming out of college, his run defense. However, the issue with Jenkins was consistency. Even worse, he spent much of the 2016 campaign dealing with a litany of injuries.
With that said, Jenkins is still only 25 years old and should have growth still ahead of him. If he's able to acclimate himself in the Raiders defense and become a beast in coverage, that's huge to help out a secondary that's younger now and that struggled a year ago. What's more, if he's able to stay healthy and continue to improve upon his run defense, Jenkins could be a key force in helping the defense to make a leap forward in 2017.
September 18, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders offensive tackle Austin Howard (77) during the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Coliseum. The Falcons defeated the Raiders 35-28. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
2. Whoever Starts at Right Tackle
Austin Howard is currently penciled in as the starting right tackle for the Raiders. Behind him and competing for the job is free-agent acquisition Marshall Newhouse. What stands out about both players, unfortunately, is that they both have been less than inspiring in terms of their performance on the line throughout their careers, particularly last season.
Per Pro Football Focus, Howard and Newhouse ranked as the league's 54th and 46th "best" tackles in the league, respectively. What's more, they were opposites of one another. Howard was better against the run, while Newhouse was better against the past. The undeniable truth, however, is that both were quite bad overall no matter which areas they were better in.
For Newhouse, this has been the case for his entire career. Howard on the other hand has seen an up-and-down shift in terms of his performance throughout his career. What makes the right tackle spot so pivotal for the team's success, however, is that it's the lone uncertainty on the Raiders stout offensive line.
No matter who's at running back, Oakland is a team that both likes to allow Derek Carr time to read coverages and make plays and also to set up the pass with a power-run game. Though they can do that without elite right tackle play, getting even solid play from the position would make the offense's life substantially easier.
May 30, 2017; Alameda, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch (24) carries the ball at organized team activities at the Raiders practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
1. Marshawn Lynch
Obviously there's no bigger name on this list than running back Marshawn Lynch. And, given that the other four players listed are decidedly under-the-radar options, Beast Mode might seem out of place. However, Lynch is a special case because of the situation regarding his coming to Oakland for the 2017 season.
The biggest factor with Lynch heading into 2017 is the unknown. He hasn't played professional football in a full season. What's more, he had one of the worst seasons of his career the last time he played, a season that was marred with injuries as well. Subsequently, it's hard to say with any certainty what he'll be.
Admittedly, there are positive signs contrasting that negativity. Reports of his physical shape are resoundingly favorable. What's more, there has been video of him in practice where he looks like the Marshawn Lynch of old. Perhaps most importantly, the Raiders have the best offensive line that he's ever run behind.
When you get down to it, though, Lynch is the key for the Raiders to take the next step. Though Latavius Murray was effective at times in Oakland, he's nothing like Beast Mode when he's fully unleashed. If the Raiders are able to add that powerful running game and consistency in that regard with Lynch, their already potent offense becomes near unstoppable.