Rams in a pressure cooker; Geno Smith's incredible start; Zach Wilson's weakness

By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer

Carolina tried to take a shortcut at the QB position under Matt Rhule.

He believed he knew better than other NFL teams and coaches around the league. He never wanted to rebuild, teach a young QB or deal with growing pains and early losses. He wanted a shortcut.

He wanted wins, ready-made out of the box, with veteran QBs other teams knew didn't work, but he thought he could fix.

So began his carousel.

All of Rhule's key QB starters, from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Darnold to Baker Mayfield, have been worse with him in Carolina than they've been before him or since him.

What is frustrating about the Panthers is they've had high picks in every single draft since Rhule took over.

They selected seventh overall in 2020 and took DT Derrick Brown.

They selected eighth overall in 2021 and took CB Jaycee Horn.

They selected sixth overall in 2022 and took OT Ikem Ekwonu.

They knew they had no quarterback. They could have drafted a passer any year since he was hired and even could have packaged picks to move up the board and take one.

Instead, Rhule opted to find failed QBs around the league. Where has that left them?

Beyond the fact that the Panthers are 1-3 and 6.5-point home underdogs this week?

Beyond the fact that Baker Mayfield, like every QB who has played for Rhule, looks even worse than he did before joining the Panthers?

Rhule has covered the spread at the NFL's lowest rate of any head coach since he entered the league in 2020. 

That means that although we know his teams haven't been the greatest, his quarterbacks had issues, and we've had terribly low expectations for his teams, he still cannot even meet these already ground-floor expectations.

The betting market predicts his teams will lose, but they spot him points. Over the course of the week, bettors and bookmakers iron out the fairest line for his teams to lose by. By game day, it should be very accurate how many points his teams will lose by, and millions of dollars have moved the line to the right position.

But when the game kicks off, his teams underperform at the most severe rate of any coach in the NFL.

While owners are not supposed to care about betting markets, in this case, the betting market has weighed in loud and clear on Matt Rhule. It's clear Vegas believes Rhule is the worst coach in the NFL.

Related: Panthers rank 32nd in FOX Sports' NFL power rankings

Rams pressure cooker

The Rams just played the 49ers, who entered the game ranked second in pressure rate at 40.4%.

On Monday night, the 49ers recorded pressure on 42% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, piling up nine hits and seven sacks.

Next up for the Rams, who lost their backup center during the game due to injury? The Dallas Cowboys. 

Dallas is the new second-ranked pressure team, with their 40.0% rate falling narrowly behind the 49ers, who moved up overnight.

The Cowboys have recorded more QB hits (36) than any other team in the NFL. Their offense is not as creative as Kyle Shanahan's, but if their defense shuts down the Rams' offense, they could keep this game close.

Inefficient wins

Week 4 began with the Bengals beating the Dolphins. But through three quarters, the Bengals trailed the Dolphins 15-14.  It wasn't until they scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter that Cincinnati secured the win by a final score of 27-15.

The Cowboys, likewise, won 25-10. But they, too, trailed in the first half. And they led by only five points entering the fourth quarter, when they scored 10 unanswered points to secure the lopsided final score.

Both of these teams struggled due to extremely inefficient performances from their offenses.

In fact, these two teams ranked 31st and 32nd this week in the percentage of early downs that converted a first down.

Throughout the league, just over 25% of early downs (first or second) convert a new set of downs. 

The Bengals were down at 14.9%, while the Cowboys converted 14.3%.

Before you suggest they took their foot off the gas late and that's why they were inefficient, I'll remind you of the scores entering the fourth quarter and how neither team had a sizable lead. Additionally, in quarters one through three, these teams both still ranked 31st and 32nd in percentage of early downs to convert a new set of downs.

On the season, the Bengals' offense ranks 30th, and the Cowboys rank 23rd.

Both of these teams should look to emphasize early-down efficiency. If they're successful, they won't need to push to the same degree late in games.

Thankfully for the Bengals, they'll next face the Ravens' defense, which allows early downs to convert to a first down at the highest rate in the NFL.

Look out for Geno

Geno Smith ranks third in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per attempt. That's a stat I didn't expect to see one month into the season.

When throwing the ball beyond the line of scrimmage, he ranks first in success rate and second in EPA/attempt. He has the NFL's No. 1 completion percentage over expectation.

The scary part? This team can get better if he improves in the red zone.

Right now, he ranks 13th in EPA/dropback in the red zone. Outside the red zone, he's third EPA/dropback and second in success rate, behind only Josh Allen.

According to Dan Pizzuta, last week against the Lions, 59% of throws were between 2.5 to four seconds, which Next Gen Stats considers "in rhythm." On the season, 49% of Smith's early down passes are "in rhythm," which ranks sixth-highest in the NFL. 

Compare that to Russell Wilson, who last year had only 34% of early down passes thrown "in rhythm," which ranked 33rd of 42 QBs.

Additionally, 76% of Smith's dropbacks under pressure have resulted in attempts to a target. That's the highest rate in the NFL (average rate is 59%). He's keeping his eyes downfield and still looking to read the defense, even under pressure.

Wilson, on the other hand, is down at a league average 59% this year, nearly 20 percentage points lower than Geno.

Will Thursday night run games struggle?

Examining yards before contact per rush attempt gives a good indication as to how offensive lines are opening up holes for running backs, as well as how efficiently those backs are taking those holes.

On Sunday, the Colts averaged -0.38 yards before contact per rush (32nd), and the Broncos averaged 0.25 (28th).

These metrics are highly correlated to overall rushing efficiency, and as such, the Broncos running backs ranked 32nd in EPA/att (-0.66) and the Colts ranked 30th (-0.52). 

Both teams are dealing with running back injuries. The Broncos just lost their top runner, Javonte Williams, for the season. The Colts' RB1, Jonathan Taylor, was injured in the game and is questionable to play on Thursday.

On the season, the Broncos and Colts each rank bottom-five in both yards before contact per rush and EPA/rush.

Both of these rushing defenses rank better than average in yards before contact per rush, although the Broncos have been terrible in EPA/rush allowed. 

If neither run game can get things going on the ground on Thursday, the game will be settled by a duel between two underperforming passing attacks.

Zach Wilson wins, but there’s a clear weak spot

After missing the first three games due to injury, Wilson returned to the Jets and won his first game in upset fashion over the Steelers. 

He averaged -0.03 EPA/att, a 34% success rate, 7.0 yards per attempt and only 50% completions.  The Steelers blitzed him on 30% of his dropbacks, which was ninth-most in the NFL last week. 

And when he was blitzed, he was the most sensitive QB to it in the NFL. Look at his splits:

On plays without a blitz: +0.32 EPA/att, 39% success rate, 8.4 YPA, 60% completions

On plays with a blitz: -0.86 EPA/att, 25% success rate, 3.7 YPA, 27% completions

He ranked 33rd of 34 quarterbacks in efficiency against the blitz, but fifth of 34 QBs in efficiency when not blitzed.

In the two prior games without T.J. Watt, the Steelers blitzed at a 25.6% rate and, when blitzing, recorded pressure at just a 27.3% rate. And when they did blitz, they held QBs to a +0.04 EPA/att, 55% success rate (ninth-worst), 9.4 YPA (seventh-worst) and 67% completion percentage.

But note what Wilson did in Week 4 against the Steelers' blitz: A -0.86 EPA/att, 25% success rate, 3.7 YPA, 27% completion percentage.

When the Steelers blitzed last week, they recorded pressure at a 43% clip, up from 27% the prior two weeks.

Compounding the Jets' problem: They are about to face the Dolphins. 

Miami blitzes at the NFL's seventh-highest rate (PIT was below-average at 22nd prior to last week).

And while the Dolphins' defense, in the first two weeks of the season, had the seventh-highest blitz rate but the second-lowest pressure rate (a deadly combination that helped opposing QBs), over the past two weeks, the Dolphins are blitzing at a 30% clip but have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL, creating pressure on 42% of opposing dropbacks.

That came against the Bills and Bengals. And those both were difficult games — against Buffalo in tremendous heat and facing Cincinnati on short rest.

Now the Dolphins are coming off a mini-bye.  And the Jets are banged up along their offensive line.  Their starting RT, Max Mitchell, was carted off the field near halftime.

They had already lost Mekhi Becton, his replacement Duane Brown, then George Fant. All are on IR. They moved right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker to left tackle, had Nate Herbig in at right guard and inserted Conor McDermott at right tackle.  

Against a strong Dolphins pass rush, Zach Wilson could again be running for his life on Sunday.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.