NFL young talent: No. 21 Colts will be shaped by Anthony Richardson’s development
Star running back Jonathan Taylor and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson headline the Colts' young talent, representing both the upside and uncertainty of Indianapolis' future.
Owner Jim Irsay's hope is that the two set the foundation for a devastating run game and Richardson's development as a franchise quarterback. But Taylor's future in Indianapolis feels uncertain amid a contract standoff.
There's also a chance that the uber-athletic Richardson doesn't pan out — a world where his performance never meets his upside, which would be a devastating blow for a franchise that has invested its highest pick on a quarterback since Andrew Luck.
Most notable for the Colts: they lack proven young talent at premium positions. They have a decent core of receivers around Richardson (Michael Pittman Jr. Alec Pierce, third-round rookie Josh Downs), but face question marks at left tackle, cornerback and edge rusher.
Young core
Standouts
Jonathan Taylor
At his best, Taylor is one of the best running backs in football. He posted the most prolific rushing season in Colts history in 2021, with 332 carries for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns en route to first-team All-Pro honors. His vision, cut-back ability and breakaway speed are elite. But right now it's hard to say what Indianapolis will get from him moving forward.
[Ranking the 10 best NFL RBs for 2023: Christian McCaffrey leads list of standouts]
Aside from the contract drama, he's been sidelined since the offseason program rehabbing his ankle, which was surgically repaired in January. His timetable for return remains mysterious.
A high-ankle sprain forced him to miss six games last season, limiting his effectiveness and production (a career-low 192 carries for 861 yards and four touchdowns).
"He's yoked," guard Quenton Nelson said last week of Taylor. "He can run you over. He can outrun you. He can juke you. He brings a lot to the table."
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WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman has been the Colts' No. 1 receiver since 2021. Over the last two seasons, he's eighth in the NFL in targets (262), fifth in receptions (181), 16th in receiving yards (1,930), 16th in yards after the catch (671) and 11th in receiving first downs (101), according to TruMedia. He gives Richardson a dependable top target.
Potential breakouts
Anthony Richardson
Richardson will face struggles amid his development as the Colts' potential franchise quarterback. He started just 13 games at Florida. Indianapolis knowingly signed up for ups and downs.
But the franchise is banking on his upside — on his growth as a passer to eventually meet the physique, athleticism and arm talent that dominated storylines in the pre-draft process.
There's reason to believe those hopes won't be in vain. New coach Shane Steichen is expected to build a run-pass option scheme around Richardson that will accentuate his strengths, similar to what he did in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts, who's also a dual-threat quarterback.
[Arthur: Anthony Richardson is more than his athleticism: 'He was going to absorb everything']
Richardson's play has steadily improved throughout training camp.
"I think when you get repetitions and you do things more and more, you're going to get more comfortable," Steichen said last week. "I think he's gaining confidence in the system and gaining confidence with his teammates. When you have that and you have the talent that he has, it's usually a good thing."
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Julius Brents
Brents will have a chance to be the Colts' No. 1 cornerback as a second-round rookie, playing alongside veteran Kenny Moore II.
With the departures of former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore (traded) and Isaiah Rodgers Sr. (released), Indianapolis has one of the youngest cornerback rooms in the NFL, including three rookie draft picks and two undrafted free agents from last season.
Brents missed the offseason program with a wrist injury and the start of training camp with a hamstring issue, but has been practicing over the last several days.
Contracts to consider
Jonathan Taylor
Taylor and the Colts currently hold the honor of the league's messiest contract dispute. Entering the last year of his rookie deal, the star running back wants a big-money extension and a trade. Indianapolis doesn't intend to honor either request at this time.
Taylor has little leverage in the situation. He plays a position, running back, that has become increasingly devalued. The Colts don't have to pay him or trade him to a team that will. They also have the franchise tag at their disposal from 2024-26 (if they're willing to eat the hefty cap hit). Taylor is injured too, nursing an ankle issue with an unclear timetable for his return.
The best case scenario for Taylor in a multi-year contract is an average annual value between $12 million and $16 million, the going rate for the highest-paid running backs. As long as Indianapolis stands firm on not trading him, it seems unlikely that there will be movement on the contract stalemate until next offseason, when his rookie deal expires.
Michael Pittman Jr.
Like Taylor, Pittman is entering the final year of his rookie deal. He's been the Colts' leading receiver since 2021, with 107 receptions for 2,007 yards and 10 touchdowns in that span. There's a good chance he would've hit 1,000 yards receiving last season had Indianapolis' pass game been competent.
But is Pittman a "true" WR1? That's the big question, and one that could make negotiations for his second contract tricky. Around $20 million per year could be Pittman's range, just outside the top 10 highest-paid players at his position. Mike Williams and Chris Godwin received $20 million-per-year deals last offseason. D.J. Moore, who posted similar production early in his career, signed a three-year, $61 million deal with Carolina before being dealt to Chicago in the trade for the No. 1 overall pick.
Pittman said he'll play this season without an extension in hand.
"I think every player wants to get paid," Pittman said last week, smiling. "I wouldn't mind (a new contract)."
Key stats
- Jonathan Taylor ranks fourth since 2020 in rushing yards (3,841), tied for second in rush TD (33), and fourth in scrimmage yards per game (108.0)
- Anthony Richardson broke 21% of tackles on designed runs and scrambles in 2022, the best among FBS Quarterbacks
- Kwity Paye recorded a run defense grade of 76.6 last season, tied for 15th best among all edge rushers (per PFF)
Inside info
Anthony Richardson: "There are many narratives about Anthony's accuracy and play coming out of Florida. Certainly, issues that needed to be addressed in his college film. But I don't think I've seen a prospect flip the script that impressively from the end of the (college) season through the draft. And that's a testament to how hard he works and the immeasurable potential of his skill set." — NFL trainer
Jonathan Taylor: "Given the relative lack of supporting cast (at least at the skill positions) Taylor has enjoyed over the past five years, his production and consistency has been remarkable.
"Short RB shelf lives make a very real argument for not rewarding star players at the position, but when healthy, Taylor is one of the league's absolute superstars at the position. Given how much Shane Steichen loved running the ball in Philadelphia, Taylor and Anthony Richardson will make DCs lose sleep if they get to play together." —College personnel evaluator
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.