NFL Week 4 Survivor pool picks and analysis

Kudos if you took the Cincinnati Bengals last night. That early 74-yard yard strike to Kenny Stills probably gave you a scare early, and Mike Nugent was far more active from the red zone than you would have liked to see but at least he nailed all five field goals as neither team scored a touchdown after the first quarter.

Also wasn’t it a bit therapeutic to root against the Dolphins after their dismal performance against the Cleveland Browns last week? Sometimes a win still feels like a loss. If not for some luck and three field goal misses by replacement kicker Cody Parkey, the Dolphins would have torpedoed a large swath of entries, which, of course, would have been good for some of you.

Speaking of the Browns, that’s where we’ll begin this week’s review of the top five most popular picks (which included the Bengals as the No. 2 selection). Reminder: the five games listed below represent the most popular selections, in order, by players in FOX Survivor pools. I’ll also refer to selection percentages in Yahoo! pools for some additional perspective.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Redskins (alternatively known as "Browns Opponent") represent the most popular pick in FOX Survivor pools with backing from 31% of poolsters. Washington will have had the benefit of (1) restored confidence in Kirk Cousins who mostly played well against the New York Giants last week and (2) the benefit of knowing that the Browns will use Terrelle Pryor like a modern Slash (former Steelers do-everything QB Kordell Stewart, for the younger readers) and ought to be prepared to see him line up anywhere.

The Redskins will have to be disciplined on Pryor keepers, read-option plays and of course be mindful when the 6-foot-4, 223-pounder splits out wide.

“We’re still working on our game plan now and he’s all over the place,” said Redskins head coach Jay Gruden. “He’s been a dynamic player in the NFL, one of ... probably the biggest surprise in the league so far how productive he has been at both receiver and at quarterback, obviously last week. Team defense is gonna have to take him away, somebody different every time possibly.”

Pryor aside, Browns starter Cody Kessler is still a rookie quarterback playing on the road, and now there’s some game tape that Washington can use to study the kid. The Browns will probably look to Feed the Crow (Isaiah Crowell) against a Washington front seven that’s struggled against the run. They’ve also failed to get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

That said, the Redskins are the more talented team and Cousins is a decent bet to blow up in this game as he continues to develop chemistry with slot man Jamison Crowder (who leads the team in receptions with 16). Between Crowder, Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson, a soft Browns secondary led by DB Joe Haden, still nursing a groin injury, will have its hands full.

Dolphins-Browns serves as a reminder of the NFL’s “Any Given Sunday” reality. The margin between great teams, decent teams and bad teams is not that large. But if Cousins can avoid pressing too much and if Washington can get some more pressure on Kessler, they should get to 2-2 and immediately squash Terrelle Pryor’s hope that the Browns can run the table. I think the Redskins are a good pick this week but like the next one better.

ARIZONA CARDINALS vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS

We sniffed a potential problem for the Cardinals last week making the trip to Buffalo against a desperate Bills team. Well, it happened. The Bills absolutely shredded the Cardinals on the ground with LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor and Mike Gillislee going off for over 200 combined yards rushing as Carson Palmer threw four fourth-quarter interceptions in repeated comeback bids.

The Cardinals entered this season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations and now their backs are against the wall at 1-2 in a Week 4 version of a “must-win” game -- which isn’t really a must-win but it is to the extent they don’t want to play actual must-win games in Week 13.

The Rams are riding high after an emotional win in which it managed to put up 37 points despite a relatively meager 320 offensive yards. The Tampa Bay Bucs allowed a few big plays and a defensive score and became totally one-dimensional on offense. Put another way, this still isn’t a good Rams team, the offensive line still is rough, and Arizona will probably sell out to stop Todd Gurley, which it did pretty effectively in their two meetings last season. Make Case Keenum and a mediocre receiving corps beat them.

No doubt the Rams defensive line can and probably will give Arizona's line some problems but Larry Fitzgerald has torched the Rams in past meetings and should dominate in the slot as David Johnson does work on the ground. There’s no chance the Cards come out flat for this one. They have plenty of veterans who will appreciate the danger of 1-3 and I think they slap the Rams around. ALL IN ON BRUCE ARIANS?!!? Only 8% of FOX poolsters are riding with Bruce while 15% of Yahoo! players are on board. There are no safe bets but this is my favorite survivor play of the week.

HOUSTON TEXANS vs. TENNESSEE TITANS

No J.J. Watt, no problem? Turns out he’s not a cyborg as multiple injuries (back, groin) sapped him of his powers during the first three weeks when he just wasn’t very impactful, at least not to the extent we had come to expect from him. Six percent of FOX poolsters are backing Houston in this spot while they’re a bit less popular in Yahoo at about 5%.

Without tight end Delanie Walker, the Titans passing attack struggled badly last week against a Raiders team that had gotten shredded in the previous two games. The run-first Titans didn’t have much of a passing game to begin with so they’d better hope Walker is back. He’s trending in the right direction. Anyhow, I think this game will turn on Houston’s passing offense. In two meetings last year, DeAndre Hopkins ripped the Titans (total 15 catches for 211 yards and two TDs) and that was with lesser QBs at the helm. The Titans secondary is pretty exploitable, especially DB Perrish Cox, and Hopkins and Will Fuller should fare pretty nicely. And Lamar Miller will get his 20-plus carries, ideally in the fourth quarter when they need to salt the game away.

I like the Cardinals and Redskins better but can’t argue with a Texans pick here. Yes, last Thursday night the Patriots and Bill Belichick took the Texans players and coaches' lunches, ate them, put those lunchboxes on the ground and stomped on them, then picked up the containers and cold-clocked Houston with them.

By way of reminder, that Pats-Texans game was an embarrassing 27-0 Patriots shutout in a game in which New England rookie QB Jacoby Brissett made his first career start. Put another way, this is a good bounceback spot for the Texans.

DENVER BRONCOS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

This is a bad idea: 6% of poolsters are looking to ride the Broncos, probably figuring that if Trevor Siemian can hang four touchdowns on the Bengals, the Bucs should be a cakewalk. The formulation is never that simple. Remember what happened to the Cardinals on the East coast last week against a desperate team?

The Buccaneers have effectively shut down the run but remain very susceptible in the secondary. Meanwhile, without Doug Martin, the Bucs don’t have much of a rushing attack, but they’re definitely going to have to try. The Bucs know they can’t be so one-dimensional and sling it around constantly, plus the Broncos’ secondary is excellent.

X’s and O’s aside, I’m very leery about backing the Broncos in survivor or against-the-spread because the betting public appears so darn sure about it. According to Sports Insights figures, Denver is getting a whopping 84% support right now. You know what happens when it’s very lopsided like this? This happens:

All three favorites lost outright (and two got demolished). I’d look elsewhere and not at the Broncos this week. Wait until they’re at home. There’s warning bells going off.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. BUFFALO BILLS

This is the sixth-most popular pick with 4% of poolsters on the Patriots, but let’s look at it briefly since the Bengals are out of the equation after Thursday's win. It feels kind of ludicrous to take the Patriots in a game when we don’t even know for sure (yet) who’s starting at quarterback. At the same time, I think Belichick has taught us it simply doesn’t matter.

Last week the Pats had Brissett attempt just 19 passes (11/19 for 103 yards) as they managed to score 27 points and stymie the Texans. I seriously think the Patriots could call 52-year-old Vinny Testaverde on Saturday morning, throw a condensed playbook at him  have him complete 20 passes on Sunday in a comfortable win.

With an extra few days to prepare after the Bills unloaded the emotional tank in a Cardinals beatdown, I think the Patriot are going to roll. So if you’re looking to go contrarian and hope the Redskins and Cardinals fall, go for it.

Pick your poison and check back here on Saturday for the top prop bets for Week 4.