NFL Week 4 odds: Best bets, including Bills, Steelers to cover

NFL Week 3 is in the books, and what a monster week it was! 

However, this week's theme is don't overreact to what you saw last week (ahem, Miami). There's plenty of value on a couple of squads that should bounce back this Sunday.

Additionally, can a few of last week's upstarts keep it going (here's looking at you Indianapolis). 

So without further ado, let's dive into my best bets for NFL Week 4.

All times ET

Ravens at Browns (1 p.m., CBS)

One of my first bets of the week was Browns -2.5, but I wouldn’t take it if the number hits 3. In fact, I would look hard at Baltimore in a big rivalry game. 

The Browns defense has been incredible this season, allowing just one trip into the red zone in 39 drives. Opponents have just five snaps in their red zone. 

Can a banged-up Baltimore offense change things? The Ravens may get back two starting offensive lineman, which would be enormous; it’s much less clear regarding receivers Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham. 

I have some concern about Deshaun Watson's "sore" throwing shoulder," because if he’s healthy, he should be able to take advantage of an average Baltimore secondary. 

Division games have hurt me this season, but I’ll ride with Cleveland under a field goal at home.

Pick: Browns (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Rams at Colts (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

After hitting the Colts last week in Baltimore, I’m going back to Indy, and it doesn’t matter if it’s Gardner Minshew or rookie Anthony Richardson at QB. 

It’s mostly about the Rams. The offensive line got beat up against the Bengals, and Matthew Stafford was under duress, getting sacked six times and pressured a staggering 20. After a clean sheet in the opener, Stafford has thrown four interceptions in the last two games. Ouch. 

The Colts should be able to control the line of scrimmage, and other than a couple incredible catches by the Jaguars, have looked shockingly competent through three games defensively. 

And don’t forget, this is a brutal travel spot for the Rams, who played Monday night at Cincinnati, flew home, and then have to turn back around and fly to Indianapolis for their third road game in four weeks. 

Pick: Colts (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point (or win outright)

Dolphins at Bills (1 p.m., CBS)

If you’ve been reading this space for a few years, you know when a team is rolling, it’s foolish to step in front of a truck. 

Of the 14 games on Sunday, surely you can find a better spot to invest your after-tax dollars than betting against the team that just dropped 70 points and rang up over 700 yards of offense? 

The betting public will back Miami, obviously. But let’s remember — Miami struggled to put away the Patriots and needed a late stop to hang onto the cover. And it needed a late score and then a defensive stand to beat the Chargers.

Denver might be one of the worst teams in the league. Don’t let the 50-point margin scare you.

Josh Allen is 9-1 against the Dolphins and in those games averages 50-plus yards rushing. Buffalo’s newfound run game will protect the lead — it learned its lesson vs. the Jets in the opener — and combined with a beastly defensive front that had nine sacks last week, it should control the line of scrimmage. 

I took a nibble of the Under, but that’s not for the faint of heart.

Pick: Bills (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points 

Steelers at Texans  (1 p.m., CBS)

Yes, I’ve seen the numbers of Mike Tomlin as a road favorite (29-39-3 — not pretty!), but this is all about Houston’s injuries on the offensive line and me fading the narrative about how well rookie QB CJ Stroud has played. 

Houston’s offensive line held up well against the Jaguars. CJ Stroud wasn’t sacked after getting dropped 11 times in the first two weeks by Indy and Baltimore. We heard that about Jimmy G coming into Week 3 though, only to see the Steelers get him four times. What will T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith do to Stroud?

As for Stroud, a closer inspection of his numbers reveals that 60% of his yards have come in the second half, and let’s remember, in a Week 2 blowout loss to Indy, Stroud was down three scores and playing against soft coverage.

The Texans had issues stopping the run when down big to Indy (Moss 4.9 YPC), and then stopping the run vs. Jacksonville when up big (Etienne 4.6 YPC).

One word of caution: The Steelers have a huge rivalry game next week against the Ravens, so perhaps they overlook the Texans. I’d put more stock in that angle if the Texans had lost last week and were 0-3.

Pick: Steelers (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points 

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.