NFL Week 4, CFB Week 5 action report: Books say public 'got us good' on Georgia-Bama

Sure, the NFL drives the American sports betting bus. 

But no question, college football betting took the wheel this past weekend — specifically, Georgia vs. Alabama.

It was a massively-bet game and, after seemingly being doomed to blowout status — with Bama up 28-0 early in the second quarter — it ultimately became an unbelievable game, with equally unbelievable betting swings, as the Crimson Tide held on for a 41-34 victory on Saturday night.

"We were losing big for 3.5 quarters," BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. "Then it got close. Then we were winning and on the verge of a big cashout. Then it was over, and the bettors cleaned up."

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country help recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Game of the Year

Georgia-Alabama was easily the biggest game on the college football Week 5 oddsboard. 

It was easily the biggest game of the season, for that matter.

But Jalen Milroe & Co. exploded for four touchdowns in the first 17-and-a-half minutes, giving the Crimson Tide a 28-0 lead. 

Bama was up 30-7 at halftime, and it was over.

Until it wasn’t. 

Alabama still led 33-15 well into the fourth quarter, but Carson Beck and the Bulldogs put up three straight touchdowns to shockingly take a 34-33 lead with 2:34 remaining. Georgia’s final TD was a 67-yard bomb from Beck to Dillon Bell.

Almost as shocking, on the very next play, Alabama got a 75-yard TD pass from Milroe to Ryan Williams. That gave the Tide a 41-34 lead, and that’s how it finished, when Georgia’s final drive ended with an interception in the end zone. Bama covered as a 2-point home underdog and cashed a ton of moneyline bets by winning outright.

"We had six-figure wagers on both Alabama and the Over. Some of the big bettors piled on. So we got killed on Bama and the Over," Shelton said of the outcome at BetMGM’s Las Vegas sportsbooks.

The total closed at 49.5, which was easily surpassed, thanks to the 27-point offensive explosion in the fourth quarter.

Added Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook: "Georgia ended up being a big need there for us. A bit of a tease there at the end. But the public got us good. That ultimately decided our day."

Play It Again, Sam

Georgia closed as a 2.5-point favorite at The SuperBook in Las Vegas. Although they were on the road, the Bulldogs were favored much of last week, ranging from -1 to -2.5.

However, even with Georgia losing — and The SuperBook, as well — that point spread would probably hold up in a rematch.

"If they played next week, it’s probably the same line," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said, before opining on the result. "It’s a loser, but nothing crazy. We wanted Georgia. Fun game."

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said his shop actually came out on top after all the late back-and-forth scoring. In fact, the result was one of the rare wins for the book, as bettors had a solid day overall in college football Week 5 odds.

"Georgia-Bama was good for us. The rest of the day, not so much. We lost a whole bunch of games," Andrews said.

Give-and-Take in NFL

The public betting masses took it in the shorts — or, more apropos, in the wallet and the pocketbook — in Weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL. Bettors didn’t do all that great in NFL Week 4 odds, but there was more give-and-take.

Before any games kicked off on Sunday, BetMGM national trader Christian Cipollini said:

"We expect Bills-Ravens on Sunday night to be one of the most-bet games of the season. … If all goes well, a Ravens cover and Seahawks upset [on Monday night] would be a great way to cap the weekend."

After Baltimore trucked Buffalo 35-10, BetMGM has half of what it wants. And postgame, Cipollini said the Bills-Ravens clash was indeed the most-bet game of the season so far. Baltimore easily covered as a 2.5-point home favorite, which was a good outcome at most sportsbooks, as Buffalo was a trendy underdog pick.

"We had a good day, and the Ravens definitely helped. That game going under the total made it an even better result," BetMGM Nevada’s Shelton said, noting the total was 47.5. "The public won their share, though, with the Vikings, Bengals and 49ers."

Public Gets Some Payback

Like Buffalo, Minnesota was a public road underdog. Unlike the Bills, the Vikes actually got the job done, though not without some drama.

Minnesota, a 2.5-point underdog, was up 28-0 at Green Bay with 5:28 left in the first half. Yet the Vikings had to hold on for a 31-29 victory.

Cincinnati got its first win of the season, topping Carolina 34-24 to cover as a 4.5-point road favorite.

"The Bengals hurt us today," SuperBook executive director John Murray said, while terming the overall NFL weekend mediocre. "They can’t all be as great as the last two weeks."

San Francisco was a 10.5-point home favorite against New England and breezed to a 30-13 victory. 

Last-Ditch Pitch

The Jaguars-Texans game nearly saw a significant swing between bookmakers and bettors. Houston, which has become a more public team, closed as a 5.5-point favorite and took a 24-20 lead on a touchdown with one minute left.

On the game’s final play, Jacksonville went into multiple-laterals-to-stay-alive mode. Ultimately, Jags running back Travis Etienne scooped up the final pitch at Jacksonville’s 1-yard line and got plowed into the end zone by Houston defenders.

It looked like it was a safety, which would’ve given the Texans a 26-20 win and cover. But officials ruled Etienne was in possession of the ball at the 1-yard line as he got hit. It was a heart-clutching moment for Andrews and his South Point risk room, which needed the Jags to cover.

"Oh, God, yeah. We’ll take that final the way it was," Andrews said.

Back To School

A couple of other results stood out in college football Week 5 odds:

• Sixth-ranked Ole Miss, a 15-point home favorite against Kentucky, shockingly lost 20-17.
• Colorado, a 12.5-point underdog at Central Florida, rumbled to a 48-21 victory.

If you’d been prescient enough to put $100 on Kentucky to pull the outright upset — betting the Wildcats on the moneyline +500 — then you’d have profited a healthy $500 ($600 total payout). A hundred bucks on Colorado moneyline +350 would’ve netted a nifty $350 ($450 total payout).

And if you’d been really prescient and parlayed Kentucky moneyline to Colorado moneyline, that $100 would’ve turned a profit of $2,600.

If only it were that easy.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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