NFL Week 3 picks: Why the Buccaneers will roll the Rams, more
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The shine of a 5-2 opening week in this space took a bit of a hit with a 3-3 mark last week, but we’ll chalk that up to a T.J. Watt injury, one special teams blunder by the Los Angeles Rams, and all-around pathetic play from the Jacksonville Jaguars.
With two topsy-turvy weeks in the books, we move on to Week 3. The point spread is the great equalizer in the NFL, which is the only way to explain how the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), and the 5-time defending AFC West Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 ATS.
After hitting a 5-team teaser last week, we’re going back to the well with a four-gamer you’re going to love. Let’s get to the winners, with odds provided by FOX Bet.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1.5 at FOX Bet) at LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams defense feels overvalued in the market. Yes, it was a top 5 unit last year by many metrics; no, the #4 ranking so far this year is not indicative of its actual play.
For starters, the Los Angeles defense has faced Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz thus far this season. Now in comes Tom Brady, who is a step up from the competition. Also, the Bears and Colts totaled three turnovers on trips inside the Rams 10-yard line - not sustainable against a Tampa team that has the #3 DVOA offense through two games (albeit against Dallas and Atlanta).
Brady opened as an underdog (28-12 ATS in his career!), but people got wise and backed the Bucs early in this one.
Here is a fun fact: TB12 is a mind-boggling 34-14-2 ATS as an underdog or favorite of 3 points or less in his career. Yes, most of those victories were in New England with Bill Belichick, but still tough to do from a gambling perspective.
You could argue that this Bucs team is on par with some of the best New England teams, especially from a talent perspective.
Tampa Bay will end up heavy in my portfolio this week: ATS, moneyline, and I'd look at their team total (over) when that comes out in the vicinity of 28.
PICK: Bucs (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by 2 points or more
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+4 at FOX Bet) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Dolphins are not as bad as a 35-0 loss to the Bills; the Raiders are not as good as wins over the beat-up Ravens and Steelers.
Nobody is going to touch the Dolphins this week after last week's debacle, but there are a couple of trends that may be of interest to you: Teams off a 35+ point loss are 13-6 ATS in the last three years; teams off a shutout are 17-7-2 ATS since 2016.
As surprising as this may sound, the drop-off from Tua Tagovailoa (out, ribs) to Jacoby Brissett is not that significant. The Raiders' offensive line remains beaten up, RB Josh Jacobs is hurt, and Derek Carr isn't 100 percent after the Pittsburgh win. Jon Gruden, for the first time this season, moves from underdog to favorite.
PICK: Dolphins (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
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WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM at BUFFALO BILLS: TOTAL 45.5 at FOX Bet
It's been one-way action on the UNDER all week; as I mentioned on Monday's Fox Bet Live, the number started at 47 and has been bet down since.
As we get closer to the weekend, it looks like we could have our first game impacted by weather this season, as forecasts are calling for rain and wind at Orchard Park. Severe weather could rattle Taylor Heinicke in his first road start, as well as struggling Josh Allen (28th graded QB per PFF).
The coaching familiarity between Ron Rivera and Greg McDermott is another topic to keep an eye on. Their relationship dates back to their days in Carolina which should lead to a low-scoring affair, with the only concern being whether or not Washington's defense is good.
Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones moved the ball easily against the Football Team's defense in two games. And, Washington has only forced five punts in 20 drives this season, as the front four isn't getting pressure, while the secondary misses cornerback Kendall Fuller, who likely would draw Stefon Diggs.
If Chase Young and Co. can't generate pressure on Allen the way TJ Watt and the Steelers did, this could be a long one for Washington.
Either way, give me the under.
PICK: UNDER 45.5 combined points by both teams at FOX Bet
ATLANTA FALCONS (+4 at FOX Bet) at NEW YORK GIANTS
It makes me vomit a little in my mouth even thinking about it, but taking the points here is more of a fade of the Giants and Daniel Jones than an endorsement of the Falcons.
Jones loves to cover the spread on the road (10-4 ATS), but he's been the complete opposite (4-10 ATS) at home.
The Falcons have faced two formidable front 7s in Philly and Tampa; the Giants lost at the line of scrimmage to Denver and Washington.
The guess here is that Falcons money shows up over the weekend. Even if New York manages to pull off the win, Atlanta and their occasionally explosive offense can come in the back door.
PICK: Falcons (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
4-team, 7-point teaser at FOX Bet
Here is a quirky note on the 49ers: In the past two Septembers, San Francisco has traveled east for back-to-back road games. The Niners are 4-0 ATS in those contests, as we mentioned last week. However, upon returning home each time, San Francisco failed to cover.
In 2019 they didn't cover 6.5 against Mason Rudolph in for Ben Roethlisberger, and in 2020 they didn't cover 9 against a bad Eagles team.
I do like the 49ers this season, and have them at great odds to win the Super Bowl. But, is this the week the secondary injuries catch up to them? The Eagles haven't tried to throw downfield much this season - one 97-yard completion notwithstanding - but Aaron Rodgers can and will.
Yes, the 49ers will run all over them, but Rodgers should keep it close.
Arizona is the most square play of the week, as anyone with money on the game is taking the Cardinals. But, no defense has been on the field more in two games than the Jaguars. Because the offense has been so inept, Jacksonville's poor defense played 35:04 in the opener vs Houston; and 38:52 last week vs Denver.
The Jaguars are tied for 2nd in the NFL with 21 total penalties. It's been a pretty embarrassing two weeks for Urban Meyer. It's possible Arizona takes Jacksonville lightly and they are looking ahead to next week's divisional matchup with Los Angeles.
It's not like the Arizona pass defense is great; the backdoor could be open for Trevor Lawrence if his line holds up against Chandler Jones. Hence the tease to under a field goal.
Dallas, while loaded on offense, still doesn't know what it wants to be. Ride the top 10 QB in Dak Prescott, or feed your overpaid running back (Zeke), who isn't your most dynamic ball-carrier?
The Cowboys are dinged up at receiver with Michael Gallup out and Amari Cooper (ribs) and could struggle against what appears to be an underrated Eagles defense that held Kyle Shanahan's 49ers to just 4.5 yards per play last week.
The Eagles should move the ball with Jalen Hurts on the short stuff - the Chargers are a superior offense, and didn't punt vs Dallas last week - and somebody wins this by a field goal.
The Broncos and Cardinals will be the most popular 2-team teaser of the weekend. Everyone knows Teddy Bridgewater covers spreads - he's 37-14 ATS - and the public will come in heavy on someone who consistently wins them money. Toss in the Broncos playing at home for the first time - altitude and high 80s weather at kickoff! - and the Jets being 0-2 ATS and looking the part, plus all of their injuries … and yeah, nobody's betting New York here.
Just beware: Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games as double-digit home favorites. Pity rookie QB Zach Wilson - nobody has faced a rougher three defenses to start the season - albeit the Broncos are down 2 starters out this week - as the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos all rank in the top seven in yards per play allowed.
There isn't a clear path to victory for the Jets here, but the Broncos' offense is methodical, and Vic Fangio coaches not to lose, so expect lots of running in the second half with a lead. Not great for covers. But works just fine for teasers.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.
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