NFL Week 2 picks: Why underdogs and overs are your best bets
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
We had a profitable Week 1, going 5-2 overall. The two keys to staying hot in Week 2 are obvious: 1.) Resist the temptation to overreact to what just happened, and 2.) beware of the divisional matchups.
First, overreactions. The Eagles and Texans had two of the three lowest season win total over/unders heading into the 2021 NFL season (Detroit was the other). Philadelphia and Houston then turned around and each won their opener by 20-plus points.
Are both teams suddenly … good? Not so fast.
Second, divisional matchups are always tricky in September. In Week 2, there are five of them (six, if you count the Giants covering on TNF). Two divisional dogs in Week 1 – Houston and Miami – both covered and won, which fits a larger trend. Since 2006, underdogs in division games are 218-144-8 ATS (.602) within the first five weeks.
So let’s get to some winners! Here are my five favorite bets on the NFL slate for this weekend (with all odds via FOX Bet).
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers: Over 55 total points scored by both teams combined
I loved this number more at the open (50!), but it's been one-way action all week, and there's still some value in a game featuring a terrible defense (Cowboys) and a slightly overrated defense (Chargers).
The Dallas defensive injuries are well-chronicled, and the Chargers shredded what was thought to be a formidable Washington defense last week for 27 first downs and 73% on 3rd down but fell short in the red zone (2-for-6).
Justin Herbert was pressured just 12% of the time on his pass plays last week, which was the lowest in the NFL. This week, Herbert should not have any trouble navigating the DeMarcus Lawrence-less Cowboys.
The only hint of caution comes from the fact that the Cowboys faced Brandon Staley's defense (when he was with the Rams) last year at SoFi in the season opener, and the game total was 52 but ended 20-17. Dallas ran Ezekiel Elliott 22 times for 96 yards that day, a far cry from the pass-happy game-plan last week vs. Tampa.
Pick: Over 55 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are fresh off an exciting overtime win on Monday night against the Ravens, which is why this is an easy spot to fade the jubilant team.
Two years ago, in this space, we noted how much Jon Gruden hates to travel. Case in point, the Raiders' trip to London, which was a fade spot of the year and an easy Seahawks winner. Last year, the Raiders won a dramatic Monday night opener over the Saints, then traveled East to play the Patriots. In that game, Gruden & Co. were soundly beaten.
As for the Steelers, we took them in this column last week against the Bills. I'll almost always take Mike Tomlin in a big underdog spot. Favored by six here feels high, but the matchup in the trenches is terrible for the Raiders, as they may be down two starting offensive linemen.
Another reason to back Pittsburgh in this spot? Derek Carr and Gruden are just 5-10 against the spread in games at 1 p.m. EST.
PICK: Steelers (-6) to win by more than 6 points at FOX Bet
Carolina Panthers (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints
I'm not a trend bettor, but here's some food for thought: In the past 17 years, teams that covered in the opener by 27+ points are a staggering 2-14-1 ATS in Week 2. (That stat also applies to Arizona and Philadelphia this week.) Regression is real. Overreaction is real.
The Saints aren't 38-3 better than the Packers. And keep an eye on the Saints' injury report, as Kwon Alexander, Marcus Davenport, and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore are all battling injuries. All have missed practice time this week.
Prediction: Christian McCaffrey – who didn't play in either loss to the Saints last year – has his biggest rushing game ever against New Orleans. He's never cracked 70 yards rushing in seven meetings vs. the Saints. Look for that to change this weekend.
PICK: Panthers (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright) at FOX Bet
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Chiefs over 29.5 points scored
I can't find an edge in the Chiefs-Ravens matchup, so I'll play it safe and take the Chiefs team total over 29.5.
They're going to score. That much is obvious. The Ravens defense is injured, and unless a tiger (Wink Martindale) changes his stripes (blitzing all the time), Mahomes and the Chiefs should cruise through 40 points.
Baltimore is off a short week, having lost to Las Vegas in OT Monday night. KC topped 30 points in nine of 15 games last season (excluding week 17 when they sat starters). The only way this goes under is if the Ravens hold the ball for 40 minutes on the ground, and the Chiefs are limited to something obscene like seven possessions.
PICK: Chiefs to score more than 29.5 points at FOX Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) vs. Denver Broncos
This bet is a hold-your-nose special. Nobody is going to bet the Jaguars here because we're prisoners of what we just saw – recency bias. The Jaguars got destroyed on the road with a rookie in his first start and first-time NFL head coach as favorites, and now come home as underdogs against mighty Teddy Bridgewater.
Teddy "Two Gloves" has become a hero to gamblers. Bridgewater is an unbelievable 35-13 ATS as a starter, and he's now 22-3 ATS on the road after dispatching the Giants.
Backing the Jags is simply a blind number play. Tune out all the Urban Meyer nonsense, the embarrassing loss to Houston, and the Denver win. A week ago, on the look-ahead line, the Broncos were -1.5. The point spread is now up to 6, which makes this move the largest one-week reaction in the NFL.
It's a tiny sample size, but in the past 10 years, teams that lost in the opener as a straight-up favorite (Jacksonville) and were an underdog in Week 2 are 15-7 ATS (68 percent).
PICK: Jaguars (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points at FOX Bet
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5-team, 7-point teaser (+300) at FOX Bet
You know the rules: Tease down through the 7 and the 3, the most key numbers in football betting.
I broke the rule last week taking the Packers, and they were stomped 38-3. On that note, I will break the rule again because there aren't many spreads that can go through the 7 and 3 this week.
Buffalo Bills -3.5 to +3.5
On FOX Bet Live Monday, I preached caution about automatically backing the Bills in a bounce-back spot. But what's puzzling here is the line hasn't budged.
The public is taking Miami getting the points, but the market has yet to offer a 3 without big juice. The problem is, Miami's defense is nothing like Pittsburgh's.
The Steelers didn't need to blitz Josh Allen last week – they got to him with four, able to drop back in coverage and confuse Buffalo's QB with a variety of looks. Cameron Heyward had six pressures; TJ Watt had five. Buffalo's offensive line was called for six holding penalties.
Miami needs to blitz to get pressure, but that leaves Stefon Diggs one-on-one on the outside.
Sean McDermott in his last four meetings with Brian Flores: 4-0, the average margin of victory, 15 ppg.
The Bills are also 3-1 ATS, with the lone loss coming last year on a Dolphins TD with less than a minute left to cover +5.5.
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 to +3.5
The look-ahead line for this game was Arizona -2.5, and it opened at -4, crossing through a critical number.
But Minnesota has numerous problems. To start with, the team had nine new starters from Week 1 of last year. The Vikings defense gave up 127 yards rushing to Joe Mixon and committed 12 penalties. And, the rebuilt secondary was torched (of the 85 cornerbacks graded out last weekend, Mackensie Alexander ranked 80th; Bashaud Breeland 85th).
Minnesota also has issues on their offensive line, as they gave up three sacks to Cincinnati; Chandler Jones and JJ Watt could be in line for monster games.
About the only thing working in Minnesota's favor – besides "they won't play that badly again" – is that Mike Zimmer is 30-15 ATS off a loss. That is, if he doesn't lose the locker room first.
Cleveland Browns -13 to -6
It's too early to take a double-digit favorite, so I'll tease the Browns through the 10 and the 7 and hope Tyrod Taylor doesn't come in the backdoor.
Cleveland did play down to their opponent multiple times last year, failing to cover twice vs. the Bengals and against Jacksonville. They went 3-0 in those games but 0-3 ATS.
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 to +3.5
The Colts injury report has me considering taking the Rams with the points. As of Thursday, the Colts' two best defenders – Darius Leonard and Xavier Rhodes – hadn't practiced all weekend. Two offensive linemen, guard Quenton Nelson and tackle Braden Smith, hadn't practiced, either.
The Indy defense looked slow chasing around the Seahawks; the Rams have a track team, too.
Oh, and Sean McVay is one of the most profitable September coaches in the NFL (10-4-1 ATS).
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 to +3.5
The Niners are my least confident pick of this quintet. The injuries are mounting (again), and it is their second straight road game. But as you read in my Super 6 piece, the 49ers stayed on the East Coast for the third September in a row, which will help them this weekend.
The public is loading up on the Eagles – they might be the second largest public dog of the week after Cincinnati. If you remove the Week 1 result, though, what would you have made this game line before the season? The 49ers still have among the best odds to win the Super Bowl; the Eagles have one of the lowest win totals in the league. Should our perception change because Philadelphia destroyed Atlanta?
Remember the stat from the Carolina/New Orleans pick above about teams winning big in Week 1 and then not covering the next week? That applies to this game.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.
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