NFL Week 17 betting recap: 'Business-wise, Lions' loss was perfect'

On some weekends, sportsbooks have to wait until Sunday night or even Monday night to calculate who won the weekend — bookmakers or bettors. But sometimes, an early result is so big, so unexpected, that oddsmakers can pretty much start counting their money.

That was the case in the NFL Week 17 odds market, at least for BetMGM. The Arizona Cardinals’ shocking 35-31 victory over Philadelphia in Sunday’s early window made it all but impossible for bettors to recover.

"The Cardinals’ [win] goes without saying. Just a monster moneyline parlay killer, along with the spread," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee.

Magee and other oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country helped break down the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Grounded Eagles

Philadelphia isn’t exactly looking like the defending NFC champion of late. 

The Eagles are 1-4 straight up (SU) and 0-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games. And the latest setback was by far the most shocking.

BetMGM had Philly as a 12.5-point home favorite against Arizona. The Eagles led 21-6 at halftime and seemed to be on their way. But by the end of the third quarter, the Cards tied it at 21, and they went on to win 35-31 on a last-minute touchdown.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews echoed BetMGM’s sentiments on the big upset.

"On the point spread, everybody had the Cardinals. But there were a lot of moneyline parlays with Philly. So that was a good outcome," Andrews said. "That result knocked out a lot of [parlay] tickets."

Further, Philadelphia no longer controls its destiny in the NFC East. As the standings sit now, the Eagles (11-5 SU/5-10-1 ATS) would be an NFC Wild Card team and Dallas (11-5 SU/9-7 ATS) would win the division.

For that to change, Philly has to beat the New York Giants on the road in Week 18 — and the Giants just gave the Eagles a challenge in Week 16 — and Dallas would have to lose at Washington.

Lions-Cowboys Controversy

Speaking of Dallas, there was controversy at the end of Saturday night’s Lions-Cowboys showdown. 

Did Detroit offensive lineman Taylor Decker report as an eligible receiver before catching a 2-point conversion pass that might’ve given the Lions a 21-20 road victory?

The refs said he didn’t. So he was penalized for illegal touching, a 5-yard penalty and replay of the down. Interestingly, rather than kick the extra point and look to get to overtime, Lions coach Dan Campbell opted to go for another 2-point conversion. The attempt failed, but Dallas was offsides, so the ball was moved to the 3-yard line and Detroit got one more shot.

The third time wasn’t the charm, either, as another 2-point attempt failed. The Cowboys prevailed 20-19 as 4.5-point favorites.

In sportsbook risk rooms, there was much rejoicing about that outcome. Lions-Cowboys was very well-bet, and what multiple oddsmakers reported needing was a Dallas win and a Detroit cover. That’s because bettors were playing the Cowboys on the spread and the Lions on the moneyline. 

The result allowed the books to scoop up all the Cowboys spread money and the Lions moneyline dollars.

"You’re rooting for the Lions the whole way, and then they get screwed at the end. But business-wise, it was perfect," Andrews said.

BetMGM’s Magee was much more succinct: "Huge winner."

Public Rides Ravens

There was some giveback to the public betting masses on Sunday. For those who avoided moneyline parlays — or at least those who didn’t include the Eagles in those bets — and jumped on the Baltimore Ravens, that was as no-sweat an NFL bet as you’ll ever get.

Baltimore closed as a 3-point home favorite against Miami, then proceeded to body-slam the Dolphins 56-19.

"We got crushed on the Dolphins-Ravens game," said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. "The Ravens looked incredible. Miami couldn’t stop them. Our two biggest needs today were the Dolphins and the Colts."

That second need didn’t turn out well, either. The SuperBook was hoping Indianapolis could cover as a 3.5-point home favorite against Las Vegas. But the Raiders scored a last-minute touchdown and, although they lost 23-20, covered as 3.5-point underdogs.

So chalk that up as a win for bettors, and not just at The SuperBook. BetMGM, both in Vegas and nationally, reported heavier spread play on the Raiders than on the Colts.

Back To School

College Football Playoff odds take center stage today, with the semifinals on tap: No. 1 Michigan meets No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, and No. 2 Washington faces No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale isn’t involved in either game, though he did just drop $1 million on Texas to win the national title.

But there have been plenty of notable games over the past few days. Perhaps none more so than Saturday’s Orange Bowl, which pitted No. 5 Florida State — quite shorthanded — against No. 6 Georgia, a matchup of two teams left out of the playoff.

The public absolutely could not get enough of Georgia in the days and weeks leading up to this game. Back on Dec. 4, Andrews said he opened the Bulldogs -14. By the time kickoff arrived, Georgia was a massive 23.5-point favorite at South Point. And bettors cashed in huge on Kirby Smart’s team, as Georgia walloped Florida State 63-3, the largest winning margin in a bowl game in college football history.

"Colleges were no good for us on Saturday," Andrews said, noting that it was mostly due to the Orange Bowl. "That one killed us. We never had a prayer. That was the worst bowl game for us of the whole season. There was no stopping Georgia or the bettors."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Along with the aforementioned Mattress Mack seven-figure wager on Texas, there were plenty more high-dollar bets rolling in over New Year’s weekend. Per usual, Caesars Sports took a number of those plays, including:

• $220,000 Texans -4 vs. Titans. Houston breezed to a 26-3 victory. Bettor profits $200,000, for a $420,000 total payout.
• $220,000 Jaguars -6 vs. Panthers. The bettor got almost the worst of this number, wagering before Trevor Lawrence was announced out. But the ticket still got there, as Jacksonville rolled 26-0. Bettor profits $200,000, for a $420,000 payout.
• $110,000 Lions +5.5 at Cowboys. As noted above, Detroit lost 20-19, but covered. Bettor profits $100,000, for a $210,000 total payout.
• $110,000 Bills -13 vs. Patriots. Buffalo won 27-21, but didn’t’ cover the big number. (Hat tip Ben Fawkes)
• $81,333.34 Ohio State -4.5 vs. Missouri. The Buckeyes led 3-0 in a yawner through three quarters, but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter and lost the Cotton Bowl 14-3.

Then there was this bet, likely looked at more as a solid return on investment for three or so hours of game time: $55,000 on Georgia moneyline -1100 vs. Florida State.

As noted above, the Bulldogs steamrolled the Seminoles 63-3. The bettor profited $5,000, for a $60,000 total payout. But that’s 10% ROI. In the current economy, think we’d all take that in our 401(k) right now.

On this New Year’s Day full of college football — including those CFP semifinals — there’ll surely be more major wagers rolling in. I’ve got much smaller bets in motion, with #ChilisMoney on Alabama +2500 and Texas +2000 to win the national championship.

If the Crimson Tide and Longhorns both advance today, then I’ll be swimming in bottomless chips and salsa for months, regardless of who wins the Jan. 8 championship game. 

Here’s hoping your New Year’s Day plays get there, as well. Happy New Year!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas